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나스닥100 특별 리밸런싱 임박: 상위 7개 종목(Magnificent Seven) 집중도가 과도해 비중 조정 예정. 비중 축소 대상은 MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOGL, 확대 대상은 AVGO, TTD 등. 옵션 만기(약 2.4조달러) 변동성 확대 예상. 공매도 상위 종목(C3.ai, Allakos, Carvana, Beyond Meat, Lucid) 언급. 발언자는 리밸런싱 결과에 따른 단기 등락 가능성만 언급하고 방향 확신은 제한적.
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foreign hey everybody it's Friday happy Friday and it's a crazy day today we have one of the biggest ever options expiries in the history of the world we have crazy short action happening all over the place Aries in the history of the world NASDAQ rebalancing so uh let me just pop this around and excuse any distractions too because the office cleaners are in the office right now and uh but this is too time sensitive so we're just gonna have to bang on ahead any background noise who cares so thank you all for being here thank you to the mods in the chat let's jump in and talk about this again crazy day very time sensitive and I couldn't find a decent answer anywhere as to exactly what all this means so I broke it down I'll find the skinny on exactly what this rebalancing means for you well if you hold any of the stocks that are listed below but there's a lot of others too we're going to cover we're going to cover some of the top shorts the most shorted stocks we're going to talk about performance year to date and so much more it's been a crazy time and of course none of this is financial advice just a guy on the internet and if you want to amplify your intelligence you're in the right place for this very crazy era that is upon us so let's talk about the story real quick uh the easy way to summarize this is the NASDAQ 100 it's kind of like the S P 500 but a lot smaller it's undergoing a special rebalance due to the concentration of seven companies which are Amazon Google Microsoft Nvidia Apple they account for about 55 I calculate if you go to different journals and you read stuff you're going to see different numbers but I went to the source I went to NASDAQ and I totaled them up directly so but this concentration is way too high and they're trying to break it down and again you'll see 38.5 you'll see 49 we're not sure exactly what they're going to do and how they're going to rebalance each name so we'll see but these uh things that happen are very very rare as like once every decade plus that these things happen and we'll break it down so first of all the Magnificent Seven caused this now for those of you who are old enough to remember the Magnificent Seven drop a comment below because that means you're as old as me uh but uh this is the new Magnificent Seven and again as I mentioned Microsoft Nvidia Apple meta Tesla alphabet Amazon and if you know this channel you know I talk about black holes and that's what I've observed for 33 years is all the money flows into a few select names it's not evenly dispersed and it's the same in crypto as well these are the black holes that suck in all the cash so let's break it down this is the current exact weight in the NASDAQ 100 today Microsoft represents 12.91 apple 12.31 and you know it's so confusing this whole thing because just zooming out for a second Apple's bigger than Microsoft but Microsoft has a bigger weighting so it's just I don't know illogical that's part of the problem you guys we're trying to break down Nvidia 7.35 came out of obscurity tripled nearly this year uh Google 7.18 Google itself is complex because there's two Googles g-o-o-g and g-o-o-g-l and they both make up like three and a half four percent each but combined they are substantial but again nobody knows what the breakdown is going to be are they going to look at them as separate entities or roll them in together and throttle them accordingly but together the 7.18 then you have Amazon 6.72 percent meta four point three seven percent and Tesla only four point two percent and that's good news because you want these things to be small we don't want a three trillion dollar company because it's not likely it's going to become a six trillion dollar company 2x but when you have something under a trillion you know it's going to become a three trillion company you have more than 3x and in fact Elon Musk said himself 10x for the retail investors and he loves the retail investors he hates wall Street's kind of so funny and he speaks his mind let's look at the year-to-day performance of This Magnificent Seven and they are astonishing so Nvidia up 212.72 Tesla 141.83 percent meta 136.4 by the way um until I sold about 90 of my meta stock I found some leaps I had in a separate account that I completely forgot about that I entered last year uh it's just kind of like a rainy day account it just stick stuff there but up until the time I sold um 90 of my meta ninety percent of my account was made up of those three names okay so when people say you can't pick stocks yes you can and these are the ones you want to be on so again uh this uh the other names there Google 33.87 said and considering it's an AI Play It's been a real laggard and it's very very annoying that it's just parked and only done 34 this year meta 136 as I mentioned Microsoft 44 Amazon 51 and Apple 54.
so again mixed bag but you can see very clearly from that chart three names drove it all and they completely screwed the pooch for the index now let's look at exactly what the MDX is and how much it's done so far year to date it's up 42.44 but when you take out those top three it's up about 20 that's the funny thing it's just three companies and even the seven altogether drive all of the action in the index and that's why they're trying to rebalance it so let's look at the year-to-date performance of The Magnificent Seven uh it's up 84.66 so remember when you don't have these seven companies in your portfolio your portfolio isn't going to do very well and what I'm saying since day one when you own an index fund you're you're being dragged down by holding a bunch of crap remember seven out of 400 out of 500 companies it means 493 didn't do very well but the seven drove it all so keep hammering that home so the question is is this going to be a big deal this whole real balancing and again A lot of people are concerned about it some of the smarter people aren't that concerned about it and I'll explain why but it is supposed to reduce the concentration of the top seven we just mentioned the Magnificent Seven however some people effectively question will it address the concentration effects and I believe again I'm always a contrarian I do things different to what the general consensus thinks I believe the big seven will continue to outperform the ndx100 because of my black hole Theory they're gonna have to rebalance it again in about three years you know when when for example if Tesla becomes a two trillion dollar company and Nvidia keeps on growing etc etc they're gonna have to Total it down and if AI becomes a real thing and you know if Microsoft figure out how to keep their Chachi BT up and running because it's every time I go there it's kind of working half the time that's a problem but anyway let's see if this has a big impact I think it's going to be a little bit different so let's look at the last time this actually happened sometimes the news causes fear as I kind of buy the buy the rumor sell the news type thing so everybody's kind of rattled about this right now but let's go back in time let's go back 12 years and we'll see here 12 years ago exactly what went down now despite the downsize for things like Apple it actually ran up you know 10 day returns heading into the actual thing it actually went up same with Qualcomm Starbucks did fall Etc so really you don't know what's going to happen and a lot of people are kind of hedging a lot of people are selling their assets before the actual adjustment the big market makers the big money managers the Goldman Sachs folks running big indexes again they're probably front running this too and that means that could be an interesting change later so wait for the conclusion as to what I see coming but the strategies as to what you can do is first of all the obvious one is sell overweight stocks I.E the ones that are going to be rebalanced down by underweight stocks the ones that are going to be rebalanced up and this five percent drop or whatever the question is what's going to happen and considering the run-up in these stocks is normally negligible doesn't matter it's kind of nobody knows exactly what's going to happen and a drop could be considered a buying option by retail and we see that happening right now with Tesla it's like after what it's done this year people just want to get more of it because they know where it's going and what happens is after the dips after all this reorganization after all this concern next week we could rally so we'll watch we'll see what happens but let's dig into a little bit more these are the biggest downsize plays Microsoft Apple Nvidia and Google will be rebalanced the most in fact Tesla will be rebalanced the least so those who own Tesla those who are freaking out about Tesla those who say the Tesla earnings was disappointing no the Tesla earnings were impressive it's the conference call wasn't short-term minded for Wall Street the conference call was disappointing because Wall Street wants to hear oh yeah we're going to bring margins to 25 next week and everything else we're going to sell over 2 million cars this year they didn't hear that juice therefore they ignored the big picture and remember the more time you have the better you can make a decision so they're the the big four now the biggest up size are stocks that are rebalancing upwards does Starbucks men delays Mandalay sorry Gilead ADP Analog Devices and all are expected to go up when you look at those charts they've already run so it's like it's too late for you to play these right now also the biggest beneficiaries of this whole thing are going to be AV go and I used to trade broadcom back in the day when the ticker was brcm now it's changed to AV go it sounds like a evgo charging company and I think it's a silly ticker anyway enough of that the trade desk is another addition to the NASDAQ 100 and they are big beneficiaries so let's look at some charts and sorry about the noise this is Av goes broadcom and it's up 62 year to date and it's up running into this too so is there an opportunity I don't think so let's go to the next one trade desk is getting added the NASDAQ 100 and that also is exciting trade desk is a position I've had it's very small position in an account for a long time it's in the same obscure account that I always forget to look at and it's the same one that has those leaps for NVIDIA that I forgot about so tiny tiny position less than one percent if it's something is less than one percent of my portfolio I tend to not focus on too much but they're getting added let's look at the chart here for trade desk actually for those in the patreon community they remember the uh tenth one stock split options play that we did was hugely successful and but here we have it again you can see no stocks but this time but the stock has been on a tear with a little bit of a downturn right now so maybe this was all priced in ahead of time by the time most people find out about these things the big money is already positioned themselves so this one we'll see where it goes but it means it will have that buying pressure as it's part of an index now going forward which is in that positive for trade desk and now there's a huge twist as well in play out there in the market today and that's this the options twist we have 2.4 trillion dollars of us Equity options expiring in about 31 minutes 32 minutes that's why I want to get this out fast this means that things will be very volatile out there in the marketplace I'm looking at the volatility of stocks they're up they're down they're all over the shop right now and it's hard to say what's happening but good news is some of the old coins are pumping which is nice some of the Bitcoin miners are going well too despite Bitcoin being kind of flat but this always has a huge impact as people kind of reposition just the stuff around Etc I do have some head short option positions that are expiring next month in August because that's my play hoping things will kind of come back down to earth a little bit but we'll see how those play out in addition let's look at one other aspect too which is I thought it'd be interesting to throw in here the most shorted stocks right now out there in the marketplace some names that are super interesting and uh and I think I forgot hang on I gotta pull up I don't remember the exact percentages so I'm gonna have to pull up my patreon post here to make sure I do have it uh hold on a second because I did talk about this earlier today and uh yes got it all right so these are the top five most shorted stocks the first one that's probably most juicy is c x a i it's the ticker so c3ai it's a Tom siebel's company total AI play jumping on the AI bandwagon but In fairness they didn't have the AI term in their company name many many years ago because I spent some time sailing against that boat and I remember the sales so they've been on that but they have a short interest of 90 percent and this is the most most shorted stock on the market and C3 AI is a cloud-based AI company that provides Enterprise Solutions it really helps I think sales people get better Etc that's all I pretty much know about it uh the second one is aloe um allergy and Therapeutics 48 short interest gene therapy company develop developing treatments for cancer and other diseases but people think they're not going to be able to develop a solution carvana big one that's the orange here in this chart cast your eyes on that it has a short interest of 47 and carvana is an online car dealership that sells used cars the company's stock has been on downward Trend since IPO in 2017 but it took a huge run up over the last couple of weeks and therefore it became a short Target yes it's overvalued however users say it's a fantastic user experience so I don't know I'm not short any of these things one of the things beyond meat which is fake meat plant-based meat uh imitation beef chicken pork products whatever I think it sounds disgusting anyway that's just me and uh Lucid Motors the last one has a short interest of 40 percent and Lucid is an EV company that's probably not going to make it unless it keeps on getting money from the Middle East to keep the business afloat so they are kind of the top short names I think if anybody's interested in doing a short carvana could be juicy but play it safe pick a caller and manage your risk on the actual short itself so conclusion everybody um the winners will remain winners the winners will get bigger they'll become black holes I've been waiting and trying to identify second tier AI plays that could emerge but I've yet to find compelling ones and as you can see in this chart c3ai is a lot of people thought oh that'll be a good one to buy and now it's the most shorted stock in the world crazy uh in addition uh short the losers focus on that focus on the carvanas or whatever not Financial advice but if you were to short something try not to short the big names that are just growing um they're too risky to short you might be able to hedge them I typically only hedge things after a big gamma squeeze or when I see things being completely overvalued in one of our ARP models that's when I go but other than that be careful out there most of this is factored in I think it'll be nothing Burger so don't fret about it too much out there I learned that from a Scottish person don't fret I think that's how they say it anyway thank you all wonder do we have any Scottish in the audience so thank you all for being here happy Friday slight change in agenda q a is normally on Sunday it's going to be tomorrow noon Pacific because Sunday we have a big one Sunday is going to be a very special video with the latest numbers around the total number of uh whole coiners that are out there and the results are terrifying in a good way if you you have a whole coin all right so thank you everybody I'll see you all tomorrow for the Q a and thank you to the mods in the chat in K8 and tnd and everybody out there see you soon foreign
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