저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 자동차 기업이지만 매출 7배 PSR로 고평가 상태다. 1분기 인도량 42.3만대가 예상치 43.2만대에 못 미쳐 주가가 6% 하락했다. 매출총이익률과 성장성은 우수하나 주식 희석과 낮은 ROIC가 약점이다. 자체 밸류에이션 툴로 저/중/고 가정을 적용한 결과 중간 적정가는 55~66달러로 현재가(약 195달러)보다 크게 낮아 고평가라고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
this is what Tesla would do forever a million investors don't get okay they could easily be selling 10 million cars a year at some point in the future wow that's a big big number Tesla is the king of all companies this is another poster child of this bull market a car company 88 of it Revenue comes from Cars it is a car company selling for seven times sales when the average car company sells for 0.3 to 0.6 times sales I personally believe that there are issues here but let's take a look at the numbers to understand they just reported first quarter delivery they delivered almost 423 000 vehicles but according to analysts at factset they're expecting 432 000 vehicles and that's why Tesla is down six percent today which is April 3rd at 11 A.M because they missed now guys if they missed by 10 000 units that's two and a half percent the stock is down six percent this should prove that stocks in the stocks are not rational it is not the efficient market theory the efficient market theory which is espoused by so many professors out there at all these Ivy League schools says stocks are fairly valued because it factors all information in what they don't remember is it factors in the interpretation of all the information the question is is the interpretation correct if Tesla misses by a few thousand Vehicles how does that really affect Tesla's value I don't know does it affect it well if they're still growing in a healthy clip what does it matter what if this estimate had been just egregiously high 30 percent growth 50 100 growth when they couldn't do that is that reasonable to punish them for that now when it comes to very high fine stocks like Tesla a stock that was over 400 a share not too long ago and now below 200 it does kind of affect it why because the ones that grow the fastest are the ones they're going to fall the most when their numbers don't hit and that's important for Tesla let's take a look at some other things here some other analysts that expected less than 432 thousands they did pretty well now I do believe this they lowered their prices I do believe believe demand does appear to be very solid listen it's Tesla they make a great vehicle and I love the fact there's no hag going you go in you just do you buy the car or not people love the car and I think they're going to do better and better Elon Musk is a great Visionary the question is does it mean the stock price is justifiable so on this channel what we're trying to do is say great story but the stock price and the company are very different we're trying to find where the price of the stock is below the value of the company so how do we determine that well let's go look at our software let's pull up Tesla right now in our software and just take a look at it so it's at 195 a share right now down six percent price of sales ratio of eight so higher than the seven that I said and like I said four GM Honda Toyota these are all way lower they did 81 billion dollars in Revenue also lower than everybody but have a huge market cap the market cap of 655 billion is actually greater greater than Berkshire Hathaways and their revenue and profit is way lower than Berkshire Hathaways just keep that in mind five-year return on invested Capital very low but here's the things I do like about Tesla gross margins High way higher than other car companies except for like 4 Ferrari the question is is this sustainable profit margin 15 way higher than other card companies question mark is this sustainable because when you value a company you have to sit there and make assumptions you have to sit there and tell a story the story I would have is is this sustainable for the long run if somebody told me this is what Tesla would do forever that's a lot different value that I give if I want to make it more like other car companies but that's why we use our stock analyzer tool which you'll see shortly where we can make a low middle and high assumptions on the company to come up with some sort of range of values and with Tesla with so many different ranges it the further we go out the wider those ranges are going to be we're going to have six seven times difference between the low price and the high price and you might sit there and say what the heck well guys that's the thing Tesla's still a newer company we haven't seen their profitability let's look at their income statement the profitability has only occurred in the last three years and look at that profit it's skyrocketed so is again this sustainable they went from a loss of 75 million up to a loss of 2 billion and now they profited 12.5 billion wow that's a big big big number 12.5 billion in profit on 80 80 billion dollars in Revenue man if they can sustain that forever and grow that's incredible so let's take out the eight pillars here all right so guys remember if you have our software you can do custom pillars and I have a few custom pillars in here but I try to avoid those and I just focus on my main pillars here for me PE ratio over the last five years 193.
price the free cash flow last five years 226. shares outstanding they diluted their investors by 22 they have 22 more shares today than they did five years ago that is diluting investors that's diluting you as an owner so if you owned the stock five years ago you now even with the growth the company you're not getting the full growth you're getting 22 percent less than that growth actually occurred it's not good for investors in the long run low roic but that should change as they make more and more money so I'm not as worried about that but of course that income revenue and cash flow and they have great debt okay so overall it's a valuation story are these valuation numbers justifiable well let's do a hypothetical let's say there's two companies out there both are making 10 billion a year but company a can grow at 30 a year Company B can grow at five percent a year would you you pay the same amount of money because they make the same amount of money absolutely not you'd have to pay more for the 30 growth per year all things being equal because they have more growth potential they can drive more money to that bottom line much faster you absolutely should pay more so when people tell me that as a value investor I don't get growth I laugh hysterically you know why stock analyzer tool very first line revenue growth assumptions growth is an important aspect of value all value investing means is can I buy a company for less than it's selling for that less than a intrinsic value that's it an intrinsic value is the value of the business in the long run and that is driven by growth so please tell your friends who say billion investors don't get okay why do you think Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger love buying high quality businesses that have high Returns on invested Capital that's talking about their moat and their growth potential of profit so let's see before we get in stock analyzer tool let's see what the analyst estimates are saying so they're expecting Tesla to make four dollars a share this year and girl it's almost doubling to eight dollars guys that's not that much growth for a company that has been driving all this profit lately I actually thought I was going to see like 15 or 16 dollars a share let's go down below the revenue growth assumptions actually it's isn't that weird the revenue growth is supposed to more than double but their profit isn't even going to double that to me says something and again these are analysts and they have their biases just like everybody look at Silicon Valley Bank not a single analyst had Silicon Valley Bank in a Cell the week before it went under that should tell you everything you need to know go look back to the 2000s with dot-coms every single analyst had these dot coms that buy ratings and they went to zero so just take that with a grain of salt there when you look at analysts okay now for the stock analyzer tool I like to look at long term I you can do one to twenty years analysis I like to do 20 years because I want to buy companies that can hold for for a very long period of time and Tesla has a great growth story attached to it they only are going to sell a million four cars a year this year but if they can really dominate this Market they could easily be selling 10 million cars a year at some point in the future the number or more look at I think it's Toyota sells like 15 million some absurd number of cars a year they could overtake that they're a great car company the question is can they can they convert because a lot can happen in the last five six years Tesla was two weeks away from bankruptcy at least two times just remember that things happen in a 20-year period look what's happened in the last 20 years for you that's why we encourage having that margin of safety and you'll put the margin of safety in your desired return if the Market's going to do 10 and you make reasonable assumptions here you should have a higher desired return in order to account for that margin of safety because the more return you want the lower price you have to pay today so I'm going to run this analysis but one thing I want you to do if you like what you're seeing here and you see all the software here look at the tools all the software comes with all of our data all the tools the stock analyzer tool was used 1.3 million times last year just as many times as cars sold by Tesla it's all available for a dollar a day everythingmoney.com the price is going up very soon to over a dollar a day so sign up now you get locked into your category price so please hold I'm going to put my assumptions in explain them and give you my value for Tesla all right guys so I again like I said earlier in the video since Tesla has so much more growth potential I needed to be able to give a wide range so here are my ranges going out 20 years Revenue growth 5 10 15 now you might sit there and say oh my God 15 still so low and 15 over 20 years that would make the revenue of the company 1.4 trillion dollars 1.4 trillion dollars almost that's a lot so before you think this number is too low that's pretty low now five percent I do think that's very low I don't think but that's the point of going in these wide ranges let's say they start having Union costs let's say they start to have issues where states start Banning their ability to sell just without a dealership because that's been discussed so these are the things you have to remember there are still things that can happen to the company and I'm just trying to show a wide range profit margin I did six like a normal car company all the way to 14.
free cash flow I did five all the way to 11. now I went lower on free cash flow because I've seen here their free cash flow tends to be lower and car companies tend to have higher Capital expenditures so I'm just going to factor that in there as a lower free cash flow multiple number now for PE the current p e is 49.
if you remember that 200 PE was was five year PE and the current price of free cash flow is 81. now if you're like that idiot meet Kevin who thinks that 70 is a reasonable PE I would sit there and say Hey Kevin uh it's already at 49 because he was going based off of the PE being 200 so he's like I'll be conservative and call it 70.
when the company is one of the biggest in the world you've got to assign that sort of multiple and the markets multiple is around 15 or 16. so I went 15 17 19. and I think this is egregiously high 19. same with price of free cash flow now for my desired return I really beat this thing up so I'm okay making 10 on these low assumptions because I don't need to get a high return if I've already beaten it up middle assumptions I put 12 a year for 20 years and high assumptions 14 because the higher my assumptions the more return I need because because they're less likely to happen okay now I hit the analyze button the Stock's currently at 195.
this is what I want to show you for how egregious this company is low price in the 20s high price 115 to 150 middle price of 55 to 66 and look where it's at on my watch list 60 bucks so I'm going to get notified and you'll get notified whatever price you put it at so guys Tesla is just overvalued could it just if I'd say yes but it has to do way better than these high numbers right here thank you very much for your time and please share this video with somebody who's a big Tesla Enthusiast thank you foreign
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