저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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Magnificent 7(애플·구글·아마존·메타·MS·엔비디아·테슬라)이 AI 기대로 크게 올라 밸류에이션이 높아졌고, 1999년 인터넷 버블과 유사한 낙관적 확신이 보인다. 엔비디아 PER 약 75, S&P500 PER 약 27로 고평가 우려. 다만 성장투자 관점에서는 고가라도 장기 성장 여지가 있을 수 있어 양면이 존재. AI 수혜 기업이 누가 될지는 불확실하며 자동차 산업 사례처럼 소수만 살아남을 위험도 있다. 영상은 중립적 시각 제시.
다듬은 글
people are now convinced AI will change the world I imagine it will every bubble ues from widespread conviction everybody believes a they bid the beneficiaries of a up to the Moon it turns out it's overdone that there's Howard Marx the founder of oak tree Capital honestly I love following what Howard has to say because as you heard In that clip he has an amazing ability of being rather Frank and telling it how it is kind of similar to the late Charlie manga in that respect and over the years he's used this super rational approach to financial markets to take advantage of times where they're anything but rational in fact he's now snowball is worth to over $2.2 billion Howard is a very well respected investor in the field and because of his Ultra rational approach my ears definitely perked up when I saw that recently he sat down to talk about a very frothy subset of stocks that being the Magnificent 7 and how that's affecting the stock market more broadly at this point and long story short he is noticing some similarities between the market of today and bubble markets of yester year this stuff isn't easy and anybody thinks it's easy is misleading those so what on Earth is going on well the Magnificent 7 are a group of us Tech giants that are responsible for an unusually large percentage of the stock market's overall gains across the last few years the companies in question are Apple Google Amazon meta Microsoft Nvidia and Tesla and if you want a crazy stat this selection of seven businesses returned more than 106% into 2023 doubling the NASDAQ 100's 54% gain and significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24% gain this is the long-term stock chart for each of the seven businesses we're talking about and you can notice one thing in common right they're all up and to the right but particularly across the last few years with the one exception being Tesla this is because ever since the profound unveiling of open AI chat GPT these seven behemoths have all been scrambling to invest heavily in AI technology and have each announced significant plan to build out their own various artificial intelligence infrastructure to capitalize on this new technology now that's great but the problem for investors globally is this with any new technology AI is at such an early stage that none of these businesses besides Nvidia are currently recognizing notable profits from their AI efforts but the general consensus is that artificial intelligence will indeed be a profound technology of the future so what this has led to is a situation where a lot of investors and speculators have bought shares in these businesses on the hopes that eventually this technology that they're all working on will bear fruit this is what's meant when Market commentators say the market is pricing it in it means investors are agreeing to pay higher prices for these shares now when the current profits don't suggest that's a wise idea in the hope that someday down the track once these companies have generated their polished AI products and services their profits will then play catch up the earnings of the business will grow to a point where the high price all of a sudden becomes more fair take a business like Nvidia for example across the last 12 months they generated $1.93 in earnings for each one of their shares yet each share costs $898 that's a price to earnings ratio of 75 AKA you pay 75 times the company's earnings per share as a price now the average PE ratio for the S&P 500 over history has been about 16 currently sits at around 27 meaning investors are willing to Fork out 27 times the earnings of the S&P 500 just to own it so it doesn't take a genius to see that right now investors are having to pay up to own Nvidia the share price is very high respective to what the actual business earns currently and that opens up investors to a big risk well risk is never easy the obvious answer is that you invest in the Magnificent 7 because you think their earnings growth will be so rapid you overweight them and then it isn't so your large Holdings suffer because they didn't live up to expectations and that's the argument from a large contingent of the value investing crowd right now these stocks have skyrocketed over the last few years to some very eye-watering valuations and it's changed the typical investment philosophy it's gone from a few years ago where you'd be paying a fair or slightly expensive price for these high quality businesses with any future profits that came from AI investment being a bonus to now investing at very high valuations for where the business is currently and then crossing your fingers the AI will indeed become a game Cher which will cause the earnings of these comp companies to rise above and beyond what's needed to justify their current valuations so that's why the Magnificent 7 looks very bubbly right now to Value style investors the fact that if you want in you have to pay a very high price now so that's the first side of the story and just before I show you what Howard Mark's opinion of The Magnificent 7 is I quickly wanted to talk about something that's honestly not the easiest thing to discuss particularly for us men my channel analytics say that nine out of 10 of you guys are dudes and that topic is mental health so I never spoke about it on the channel previously because it's not really relevant to my content but honestly in 2023 I had by far the toughest year of my whole life the ad landscape changed on YouTube so money was tight and that was just at the time where we decided to redirect half of our editing resources to build new money education so I was really under the pump and at the same time in my personal life I had the breakdown of an 8-year long relationship so there were honestly times where I didn't want to get out of bed and that's honestly the first time I decided to go and get help with my own mental health and honestly I'm really glad that I did because it really did help me and because of that for this video I'm really happy to share the sponsor is betterhelp betterhelp connects you with a licensed therapist who is trained to listen and give you helpful and unbiased advice so you go to their website answer a few questions and better help will usually match you to a therapist within 48 hours so you can do it all from your phone or computer and sessions can be done via phone call video chat or messaging and I encourage you guys if you're struggling with something in your life anything really give it a try like I did so let better help connect you with a therapist who can support you or from the comfort of your own home please visit betterhelp.com neww money or choose new money during sign up and enjoy a special discount on your first month and thank you to better help for sponsoring this video so as we discussed before the Magnificent 7 from a value Investor's perspective look very expensive but of course not everyone is of the opinion that these stocks are bubbly and in fact that's shown every day by the fact there are still plenty of shares being bought in fast quantities at these current prices so why is that well it's because there is another investment philosophy that actually supports the purchase of these shares and that is the field of growth investing so growth investors have the opinion that sometimes it is worth paying up for a business if they have ample long-term growth runways ahead of them an example here might have been say Tesla back in 2014 or 15 or 16 the shares were undeniably expensive for what the business was showing at the time in fact the company wasn't even profitable back then but investors could see the runway of the upcoming model 3 the plans to build out the new factories the plans to make their own battery sales and they thought that had potential to lead to Future profits which would more than make up for the business's pricey valuation at that time now fast forward to 2024 and that turned out to be a very good buy even as the stock sits down 58% from its all-time highs a few years ago and it's this Clash of investment philosophy when it comes to the Magnificent 7 which is what causes this is to be such a controversial Topic in the media so there's always two sides to it as how it is about to explain it's really important to look at risks two-sided so the corresponding risk is that you don't overweight them and then they perform earnings wise as expected and you're left behind it's not just what will you do of about the risk of a shortfall in anything it's also what will you do about the corresponding risk that there is no shortfall and there's no easy answer and this is why I really like Howard marks as an investor he always looks at both sides of the equation that's what makes him so effective and it's something we can definitely learn from him it's the same thing that Charlie mung always used to do he always looked to invert come up with the thesis then come up with the antithesis to ask why am I right and then ask well why am I wrong so I hope that shows that there are definitely two sides of The Magnificent Seven debate there's the debate that the valuations are too high for what the businesses are currently put out but there's also the debate that if you don't get in now you're going to miss the AI boat which is something you really don't want to do I just think that in our business in general there is no room for certainty as Twain would say and that extends to the Magnificent 7 as well so with that said and with that in mind what is Howard's opinion on the Magnificent 7 well even considering his very balanced approach he does take the time to just warn investors of some striking similarities between the Magnificent 7 now and prior stock market bubbles notably the bubble which as you are all very well aware well that ended in disaster now he of course is not in the game of predicting things but he did make the comparison in this interview which is actually quite striking because a lot of the ingredients that were there last time are also present this time around every bubble ensues from widespread conviction everybody believes a they bid the benefit benici Aries of a up to the Moon it turns out it's overdone that's what we saw happen in 1999 with the internet stocks and that's what we're seeing again with the Magnificent 7 and AI despite the small pocket of value investors in the world right now there is widespread conviction in AI which has caused investors to bid these stocks up to eye watering valuations and while there's a possibility that that turns out to be justified we are a long way from that and Market behavior is getting increasingly speculative people are now convinced AI will change the world I imagine it will I don't know how to invest in it I don't know if the future of AI is adequately reflected in the price of the beneficiaries or over reflected if you go back 25 years ago exactly to Mid 1999 everybody was sure that the internet would change the world and it did and can you imagine today living without the internet and e-commerce and so forth and yet the internet and e-commerce stocks that were the beneficiaries of that thinking in the TMT bubble of the late 90s the vast majority are now worthless Howard raises a really interesting point here that in fact because we're so early in the AI Revolution while billions of dollars are flowing into these seven large tech companies the truth of the matter is who knows if these will even be the companies that will make the most successful AI products and services in say 5 to 10 years from now I actually asked chat GPT just now what the highflying internet stocks were during the dot bubble that were Rising like the Magnificent 7 is today now do you see any of these companies thriving today Howard's Point here is that you have to be careful with tech in its infancy Warren Buffett noted in the 2021 Berkshire shareholder meeting that back during the early 1900s with the rise of the automobile there were hundreds of auto manufacturers in America across those few decades then in 2009 there were three left and two went bankrupt so there is perhaps more risk than investors think betting on the Magnificent 7 purely for a bet on the future of AI firstly we don't know the future of AI as we sit here in 2024 I'm sure it will be a big technology of the future but we don't know what it will predominantly be used for in say 10 to 20 years and then secondly we also don't know whether these seven stocks will be the AI Behemoth stocks that will collect the line share of the revenue in the future Nvidia seems to be in the box seat for Revenue generation but that's because they're selling the hardware for this to all happen as opposed to the other companies that are trying to build the AI Services of the future I run through this only to say that this stuff isn't easy and anybody thinks it's easy is misleading themselves and so to say well I'm I think that AI will be very important that's the easy part but knowing how it it should be reflected in portfolios that's the hard and I think this is Sage wisdom for a lot of investors right now it's probably true that AI will be a very dominant technology of the future but we should really be thinking critically about how we bet and if we bet on that as investors yes there's risk of missing out on being early but there's also risks that the tech is in its infancy and who knows what the future products services or winning companies will be remember Ben Graham's definition of an investment an investment operation is one which upon thorough analysis promises safety of principle and a satisfactory return is investing in AI now a well-calculated investment or is it too speculative to make sense definitely let me know what you think down in the comments below and guys thanks very much for watching leave a like if you did enjoy and if you want to learn how to properly value stocks through three different valuation methods please check out introduction to stock analysis over on new money education the link will be in the description but with that said I'll see you guys in the next video m
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