저자: Mike · 외국인
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버핏 주주총회 후속 영상. 버핏은 AI를 핵폭탄에 비유하며 위험성을 경고했고, 버크셔는 미국 중심 투자를 유지하며 AI 직접 투자 계획은 없다고 밝혔다. 미국 재정적자(2024 회계연도 약 1.1조 달러 누적 적자 언급 및 연간 1.7조 달러 언급)가 가장 큰 거시 문제이며 연준보다 재정적자에 주목해야 한다고 주장. 달러 기축통화 지위는 당분간 유지된다고 봤고, 버크셔 현금 1,890억 달러는 적정 투자처가 없어 보유하며 단기 국채 수익률(5.12%)이 매력적이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
we let a genie out of a bottle when we develop nuclear weapons and AI is somewhat similar all right team we've got a lot more to talk about as you guys would have seen in my last video I am here in Omaha covering the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting and in the last video we took the time to hone in on what was definitely the biggest news of the day that being berkshire's 133% reduction in Apple stock however there was a lot more stuff to come out of the Burkshire meeting that I still wanted to bring to you guys from Buffet thoughts on AI to the US debt pile to even the amazing tribute to the late Charlie manga including a slightly awkward mishap from Warren which we'll talk about at the end of the video so in this video Let's cover everything else that happened that wasn't the Big Apple news and as a quick reminder if you didn't see in my last video I've also decided to do a big Burkshire Bonanza sale over on new money education if you would like to learn the full Warren Buffett investment strategy so there's over 6 hours of professional scripted and edited content over on introduction to stock analysis which tells you everything you need to know about the four key pillars to Warren Buffett's approach from Reading financial statements to scrutinizing Moes and management teams to learning how to value stocks whether it be a discounted cash flow or a 10 cap or relative valuation all of it can be found in introduction to stock analysis and if you use the code Burkshire 24 you'll just get it at half price so that's there if you want it but with that said let's turn back to the Burkshire meeting and I think the biggest headline that I've seen in the news Apple was Buffett discussing his thoughts on the current development of AI because he had a pretty scary comparison I don't know anything about AI that doesn't mean I deny its existence or importance or anything of the sort and last year I said we let a genie out of a bottle when we developed nuclear weapons and that Genie has been doing some terrible things lately and the power of that Genie is you know scares the hell out of me and on the other I don't know any way to get the genie back in the bottle and AI is somewhat similar so Buffett likening the development of AI to the development of the atomic bomb back during World War II and he's not the first to make this kind of alarming comparison one notable figure that you guys will all know on the front line of AI development is of course Elon Musk and he's been pushing for years to get AI regulated fast before it can no longer be controlled and interestingly Buffett actually said the reason he finds the tech so worrying is because of an actual experience he had recently I saw an image in front of my eyes on the screen it was me and it was my voice and wearing the kind of clothes I wear and my wife or my daughter wouldn't have been able to detect any difference and it was delivering a message that no way came from me so when you think of the potential for scamming people if you can reproduce images that I can't even tell H that say I need money I need throw $50,000 wired I mean scamming has always been part of the American scene if I was interested in investing and scamming it's going to be the growth industry of all time and it's enabled in a way I now maybe you know obviously it has enormous potential for good and enormous potential for harm and I just don't know how that plays out and honestly we've already seen AI used in scamming but you'd imagine it would only get worse as the technology gets better even for us in the office it's amazing how closely we can mimic the voices of people like j po Jamie Diamond or even my podcast co-host tamish hotter but beyond just talking about the potential danger of AI I think we can also lat AR rest the idea that b will be making any sort of investments in this field as Buffett says he simply doesn't know anything about it and he actually took the time during the meeting to discuss this age-old value investing principle of sticking inside your circle of confidence when he was asked about whether he will look to invest more in China across the coming years our primary investments will always be in the United States you won't find us making a lot of Investments outside the United States although we're participating through these other companies in the world economy I understand the United States rules weaknesses strengths whatever it may be I don't have the same feeling for economies generally out around the world I don't I don't pick up on other cultures extremely well and lucky thing is I don't have to I don't live in some tiny little country that doesn't have a big economy so we will be American oriented if we do something really big is extremely likely to be in the United States we feel that we're very less likely to make any truly major mistakes in the United States and in many other countries of course there are always exceptions to the rule and Buffett noted one instance he did feel very comfortable with was the Diversified investment into the Japanese trading houses but generally speaking he will stick to the Market within his circle of competence that being America and while this is mostly to do with circle of competence this is also just a function of having to focus purely on positions that move the needle for Burkshire because Burkshire is so large Buffett has a limited number of companies that he can actually invest into or buy that will significantly move the needle for Burkshire and that naturally limits him to mostly US Stocks we're not in the business of going out after small Acquisitions and we just don't have the people for it and it wouldn't move the needle anyway bur so and because America is home to some of the largest companies in the world naturally most of Buffet's Focus will be on businesses in the US but with that said let's now move on to a different topic and that being the macro so inflation interest rates and what he focused on this year which was the big debt pile of the US government but before I do I do just want to let you guys know as I did in the last video that actually the only reason that myself and heish are even in Omaha covering the meeting this year for you guys is because of a sponsor and that sponsor is morning breu so I would really really appreciate it if you like the Burk banza videos that myself and heish put together and you'd like to support our trip I'd really appreciate it if you signed up to morning Brew what it is is a daily newsletter that talks about all the latest stock market and business news but it doesn't drag on and buy you to tears the newsletter is usually about a 5 minute read and it covers all the major headlines but it's actually really engaging and witty so it's fun to read so I think it's a really great service I've personally been reading for years now and the best part of it is that it's free so if you guys would like to support our trip and morning brew as well please head to the link in the description and the pin comment and sign up for their newsletter again it's totally free to do so so I really appreciate it and thanks very much to morning Brew for being such a great supporter of the channel now moving on to the macro and as I said before the main topic of conversation in this meeting was the big us deficit and subsequent debt pile that looms over the American economy buffer was even asked his opinion on whether the US dollar could even lose its resered currency status if things don't change in the future do you think that at some point in time the World Market will no longer be able to absorb all of the US debt being offered the answer of course I don't know but my best speculation is that US debt will be acceptable for a very long time because there's not much alternative but won't be the quantity you know the national debt was nothing to speak of like you know for a long long time and then it won't be the quantity it'll it'll be whether in any way inflation would get let loose in a way that really threatened the whole world economic situation and there really isn't any alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency and you get a lot of people give you a lot of speeches on that but that really is the answer so Warren quick to step in and Quil concerns about the US Reserve status a lot of people have raised opinions on this even people like Ray doio with you know major buyers of US Treasury such as Japan keeping their current holding stagnant China pulling back on their treasury ownership over the last few years but Warren is quick to point out that there really isn't an alternative to the Dollar on the horizon anytime soon and he's right he does however think there needs to be a lot less media attention on the fed's movements and actually a lot more focus on the fiscal deficit which he describes as the real problem in fact in 202 the US deficit was whopping $1.7 trillion I worry about the fiscal deficit but I'm not a worrier just generally I mean I I think about it and it's it's interesting I think media enters into this and it focuses on the fed you know they just love it because things are always happening and economists are always saying what's going to happen with the fed and everything else but the fiscal deficit what should be focused on J Powell is a not only a great human being but he's he's a very very wise man but he doesn't control fiscal policy and every now and then he sends out a kind of a disguised plea for please please pay attention to this because that's where the trouble will be long story short stop worrying about the fed and pay more attention to the root cause of the macroeconomic worries the insane deficit that causes the debt pile to grow bigger and bigger every single year Hees actually showed me a stat the other day that in fiscal year 2024 the US government is running a cumulative deficit of 1.1 TR billion and because that debt pile has swollen now to such a high level over the past 20 years 43% of the increase in the government's outlays in March was actually just from an increase in net interest payments nearly half of the increase in the government's expenses are from debts turning over at higher rates so Buffett is saying that people are looking at that stat and putting blame on the Federal Reserve for hiking interest rates right but really the problem here is that the government needs to return to Surplus as soon as it possibly can so it can start lowering that big debt pile that's causing America so much pain so that was Buffett's macro take and he also indirectly made comment on the stock market's valuation I spoke a lot about this in my last video but bsha currently has a cash pile of $189 billion and despite this he still took the opportunity to turn some of their Apple stock back into cash but when asked why Buffett is sitting on such a big cash pile this is what he had to say you're sitting on 168 billion of cash which you told us today is now more than $182 billion what is Buffett waiting for and two why not at least deploy some of it well I think that's pretty easy to answer I don't think anybody sitting at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively and therefore we don't use it there have been times in my life that I've been a wash and so many opportunities that I could have invested everything by Nightfall and then there's other times when the year goes well not in the early days but now we haven't seen anything that makes sense it moves the needle it's just that things aren't attractive and there's certain ways that can change and we'll see whether they do so Buffett really not finding anything he wants to SN significant amounts of burshire cash into right now but beyond that Insight really what I took out of the meeting in particular on this topic is that at the current time this also isn't actually bothering him normally he's frustrated to have such a large amount of cash on the sidelines but throughout the meeting he made references to the fact that actually he's pretty happy sitting on this cash pile but I don't mind at all under current conditions building the cash position I think when I look at the alternative of what's available the equity markets and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world we find it quite attractive and the reason it's quite attractive is of course because short-term treasury bonds at the at the moment are still giving that cash a 5 1.2% return which is obviously much different to the effective zero return he was getting on the cash pile back in 2020 so overall that is Warren Buffett's thoughts on AI on investing in China on the macroeconomic situation on the stock market on berkshire's massive cash pile there were a lot more topics covered but probably the last one I'll touch on before talking about all the Charlie Monga tributes was actually this piece of Life advice that he gave to everyone in the room have a listen if I had one piece of advice I would really sort of use Charlie's advice of thinking how you like your obituary to read and then start selecting the educational pass the Social path and start today to go on the path that leads to that goal and expect some difficulties along the way but if you're thinking that way you you're more likely to get there and with that I thought at the end of the video I just touched on really what was the theme of the weekend that was honoring the life of Charlie as I'm sure a lot of you guys are also curious as to you know what it was like in the room and honestly it was a really really amazing tribute for him for example B hathway they usually play a mini movie to get everyone warmed up before the meeting begins and this year it was just a full 20 25 minutes of Charlie's life and his best one liners it was honestly really nice to see he got a standing ovation at the start of the day and there was just a lot of love throughout the meeting for Charlie in fact actually something that was a little bit awkward at one point Buffett actually he pretty much broke the hearts of everyone sitting in the room as he finished a monologue and then he actually turned and prompted Charlie to speak oh man it was it was a little bit sad to the idea of utilities being treated fairily Charlie Charlie I'm so used I had actually checked myself a couple times already but I'll slip I'll slip again Greg actually brushed it off so well but man I think everyone's heart's broke a little bit when Buffett slipped up there and honestly you did feel the hole sitting there in the crowd you did feel that Charlie was missing which was sad but to his credit Greg who will be the CEO of Burkshire once Buffett is gone he did a really good job of not replacing Charlie but just joining Warren up there for the entirety of the meeting and honestly he did a great job I think a lot of shareholders left the room confident in the future of burk hathway under Greg a Jeep Ted and Todd's leadership so overall that was the Burkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting for 2024 hope you guys enjoyed the video again a quick reminder about new money education 50% off with the coupon code Burkshire 24 uh big thanks to morning Brew for sponsoring this trip as well and I am just about to start the very long journey back home to Australia it's about a 26 27h hour Transit time so I'm about to hop on a plane but guys I will see you all next week when I'm back
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