저자: Valueinvesting채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 로쿠(Roku)는 현재 가치 대비 과대평가 상태라 이익 전환 전까지 매수를 보류하는 것이 맞다는 분석이다. 1) 가격 및 배경 로쿠는 1년 전 주당 약 350달러였으나 영상 시점 약 71달러, 연중 저점 62달러로 약 80% 하락했다. 캐시 우드 ARK 펀드의 주요 보유 종목으로 한때 최대 보유 비중(약 7.8%)이었다. 2) 8가지 기준 점검(진행자 분석) 5년 PER 기준 적자로 미충족, 5년 ROIC 미충족, 매출은 약 6억→30억 달러로 급성장, 순이익은 5년 전 -4,500만 달러에서 작년 -4,600만(일시적 흑자 2.3억 언급 포함) 등 대부분 기준에 미달했다. 3) 재무 및 희석 5년 평균 잉여현금흐름은 약 2,400만 달러이며 최근 5년 간 손실을 기록했다. 장기부채는 6.93억 달러로 기준(약 1.2억 달러)을 크게 초과했다. 발행주식수는 약 9,500만 주에서 1.35억 주로 늘어 희석이 심각하다고 지적했다. 4) 밸류에이션 진행자 기준 적정 시가총액은 약 5.4억 달러 수준인데 실제 시가총액은 약 100억 달러로 크게 괴리된다. 10년 DCF식 가정(매출성장 10~20%, 이익률 10~20%, PER 15~25배)에서도 적정가 범위는 약 33~65달러로 제시됐다. 5) 사업 지표 활성 계정 증가율 14%, 스트리밍 시간 증가율 19%(직전 분기 둔화), ARPU는 분기마다 21% 상승 추세로 긍정적이라고 평가했다. 다만 Apple TV, Amazon Fire Stick, Chromecast 등과의 경쟁이 우려 요인이다. 6) 애널리스트 추정 및 결론 향후 5년 매출 성장 20%대 전망이 있으나 당분간 손실 전망이 많다. 인수합병 가능성 언급이 있었으나 근거는 약하다. 진행자는 주가가 25~30달러 이하로 내리고 흑자 전환이 확인되기 전까지는 매수를 고려하지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 7) 리스크 흑자 전환 실패 시 추가 희석, 경쟁 심화, 스트리밍 시간 둔화가 주요 리스크다. 8) 출연자 전망 진행자는 로쿠 플랫폼은 좋아하지만 현재 가격은 가치에 부합하지 않는다고 보며, 최소 25~30달러 이하와 흑자 확인을 조건으로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Roku just one year ago was 350 dollars per share it is currently sitting at 71 dollars per share with a low of 62 for the year now the reason this is important is I'm quite sure that if you went back a year and you had looked at Roku you'd have thought God there's no way it's going to fall 80 in one year and that's what happens with overvaluation that's what happens with any stock that Kathy Wood touches she touches something it's the kiss of death it goes down a lot this is one of her biggest holes actually it might be her biggest holding currently in her fund at one point it was her largest holding so we're gonna look at Roku Mo and I we're both value investors I've been teaching value investing for the last 10 years in the last few years on YouTube but just because I have a YouTube channel or just because anyone has a YouTube channel does not make them an expert but I guarantee that if you watch this video and four or five other videos you will walk away saying this guy has a process and he makes sense you may not agree agree with everything I say which is fine and expected but there's a rationality here I look at every investment as the present value of all future cash flow so let's look at Roku this is our software and this is the stock go ahead Mo it makes up it's the third largest holding and makes up about 7.8 percent of her overall so okay since it's down 80 I'm quite sure she's added a lot in the last year to the Roku position so yeah she's been in and out of it but her last position I believe was a big ad okay what is art currently trading at which by the way she stopped posting her Returns on the main page but it's 42 dollars per share okay that's pretty interesting off of a 150 High awesome one 160 160 159 or so so let's use our eight pillars to evaluate this company pillar number one we want the five-year p e ratio being under 22.5 here is the five year PE n a that means they have not made money over the last five years overall okay pillow number two we want the five year return on invested Capital being greater than nine percent cut we go right over here point seven percent their average of the last five years is 24 million dollars in free cash flow per year now this may be okay this company is growing they're going to spend a lot of money to grow and in that case it's going to be reflected on these balance sheet on the income statement and the balance sheet and these are the things that to consider when you look at companies that are growing you cannot value this the same way as Microsoft and I fully understand that pillar number three we want Revenue growth over the last five years so we go to the income statement and this is the revenue growth of the last five years 600 million to 3 billion massive check so as you can tell Big Time growth but guys remember this growth does not necessarily lead to stock price going up if you overpay for a company even if they hit all these parameters and grow like crazy they'll still decline look at Intel Cisco Micron all these companies back in 2000 they're currently selling for prices lower than they were 22 years ago even though the businesses are two three four or greater times larger so just remember that if you overpay it won't matter even if the company grows more and more and more pillar number four very simple we want net income growth so we go back five years ago they've lost 45 million last year they lost 46 million so it's a slight X slightly X and I will say it took people staying home you see the big 230 million dollar positive number it took people staying home and using this thing religiously to make money yep an anomaly situation now pillar number five is the silent killer for Investments and this especially happens with companies that have a lot of growth potential there are two ways to raise money through debt and through Equity when you raise money through Equity you issue shares as a publicly traded company well when you're issuing shares you're diluting the owners of the company so we want to see the share count either staying the same or going down now for overpriced companies I don't blame them for issuing shares look at a company like Square they made a 30 billion dollar acquisition in the last year or so and they used all stock I don't blame them at all why their stock was insanely overpriced use the stock use the shares I'm fine with debt so in order to see this we scroll all the way to the bottom and they had 95 million shares at the end of six years and now they have 135 million shares massive X they have diluted the crap out of investors so what that means is if a company issues 50 more shares but they've grown 50 you've seen no gains as a user because now you're splitting as a stockholder now you're splitting those revenue and profit and cash flow and balance sheet and everything among 50 more people so you've seen no growth when the company grows 50 okay now granted this company has grown more than that which is good now pillar number six has to do with debt now again I want to sit there and say what's a reasonable amount of debt and through my analysis I've determined for me that I take the five year average free cash flow and I multiply it by five so 24 million times five is 120 million dollars I want their long-term liabilities under 120 million now keep in mind as we said earlier this free cash flow number is probably on the low side because they're spending so much money growing right so let's go to the balance sheet scroll all the way to the bottom long-term liabilities 693 million dollars so it's well over the 120 but again it's not as concerning for me because there's still growing company right okay pillars seven and eight have to do with free cash flow now free cash flow is cash from operations less your Capital expenditures and there are five things you can do with free cash flow buyback shares pay down debt pay dividends reinvest back in yourself and make Acquisitions you can do any five you can do one of each you can do all if you can three of them any combination you want but this is the life button of the business and in our software we have added this free cash flow line and make the math easy for you so five years ago they lost 18 million in free cash flow last year they lost 5 million check mark there so there is some cash flow growth less losses is growth and finally for our valuation metric just like the PE five-year PE we want below 22.5 we take the five year average free cash flow and we work backwards we multiply this by 22.5 to give us a market cap of the company we want to focus on so 24 million times 20 is 480 plus 50 is 530 plus another half is 549 million dollars so we want a we want a market cap of 540 million dollars I'm going to guarantee you right now that's not the case here 10 billion 10 billion so here's our eight pillars this does all the math for you there's a lot of red here guys but again I can't stress this enough if the company can continue to grow they can grow into the value if they're close to free cash flow they can grow into that value so you have to sit here and use our stock analyzer tool now there are some things I want to show you that are very beneficial in the company so this is roku's recent data change year-over-year growth in active accounts 14 year over year growth and streaming hours 19 with a decline though in the last quarter and then average revenue per user this is what I like seeing 21 increase steadily increasing every single quarter so there are some major that is a good thing now the question is can they compete with the Apple TVs that's the big no I know you're going to talk about that yeah that's the thing I mean you think about all the platforms out there Amazon has their fire stick which is garbage by the way it is garbage but Apple TV which is not garbage Chromecast it's it's cheap I mean it's so there was a lot of competition out there that's the thing it's interesting though because I I think this is the best one I like this more than Apple TV really I use it more than Apple TV and I'm the biggest apple Fanboy out there I think Roku is an awesome platform I just don't think that the value meets product and but the number so when you say it's an awesome platform what do you mean by that like why do you like more about people use really I thought I think the Apple TV is really simple to use too it is but I just for some reason I think it's easier to use I have uh four or five of them in the house I use them everywhere you don't even use the Apple TV in the house you sociopaths I know I love Roku okay I just love Roku so from this perspective now we have to sit there and determine oh let's look at analysts estimates right now yeah I'm actually pretty surprised by these so go ahead and go through it Mo so the the earnings per share kind of all over the map right I mean you're seeing negative growth in this year and then you're seeing big negative growth on earnings per share into December 26 but their revenue growth I mean they're expecting over 20 Revenue growth in five years from now which is great and I can I can see that happening but the problem is is even with that 20 growth on that end I just think that might be a little bit Rich for all of the competition that we need to factor in here and that's my biggest thing I think that the factor of look you have Apple TV and if you have an Apple product you're more likely than not going to use Apple TV just because it's so easy to just sync together right that's the thing that's the disconnect it breaks up that ecosystem so I think a lot of Apple users do go but what's amazing to me is you still chose to bring up your ecosystem even though literally you are in love with apple I know it's weird don't you go to um Steve Jobs grave every year and cry and uh three times a year I'm going next week so there is revenue increasing there is still going to be a loss so guys they're fun they're doing these losses along the way that's that costs money that's going to be dilution they're going to issue more and more shares and dilute their owners so the other thing is our stock analyzer tool so our stock analyzer tool is very very useful for companies that have either a path to profitability or have already shown profit that's the issue here so I'm gonna still put our use our stock analyzer tool to to look at what kind of price you can pay I'm gonna make some assumptions here based on profitability today but I will explain after the stock analyzer tool what these numbers mean so first off I'm doing a 10-year analysis I think Roku is the kind of company that if the stock gets cheap enough it will be acquired and it's funny there was a Yahoo story out there that there was whisperings of some type of acquisition no names were put out there but there are whisperings out there maybe Roku is just saying that to get some excitement going so let's go with Revenue growth what was their revenue growth numbers on our um on our annual assessments so 22 22 and a half percent on the high side well no that's for the next five years five years so overall they're doing mid double digits or pretty close to 20 so I'm gonna go 20 I'm gonna go 15 I'm gonna go 10 on the low side even at 10 years you're going 20 oh shoot you're right yeah sorry 15 let's go 12 and let's go nine now profit margin guys they haven't had profit margin what's their gross margin well can you go to like the main metrics page gross margin 48.1 okay so let's say their profit margin or the high side would be 25 percent High you know I can't even do that though because they're gonna have lost along the way so I'm gonna go with 20 15 and 10.
now remember guys this is still a big assumption because we have not seen profit yet so this assumes day one they have 10 profit margin when all analysts are expecting losses next five years so this is really a difficult company to Value from that perspective for free cash flow I'm gonna do the exact same thing because over a long periods of time free cash flow and profit margin should be the same now for PE 13 16 19 13 16 19 the reason being here is the average stock is 15 times earnings oh no this is a very confusing one all I know is a speculative for my desired return I'm gonna go big I'm gonna go 15 18.
no 15 20 and 25 wow I usually do 12 and a half 15 17 but here guys I don't these numbers are all like guesses and we don't know this profit is going to happen so I need major major margin to be right so I'm gonna hit the analyze button it's at 72 right now even if it's all green there's a lot of unanswered questions for me personally the answer to this question is it's too difficult I'm gonna wait till they're profitable so let's click the analyze button and even making these really high assumptions guys we're at a low price of 33 a high price of 65 in a middle price of 50.
now does this mean when it drops seven more dollars look at it again guys that assumes major profitability and that major profitability is nowhere close to happening for a company like this unless it falls to me below 25 or 30 bucks and we understand what the company is doing for profitability I just can't entertain buying it yeah even if the company was that even if the company was at 25 dollars right now and we were still seeing the same numbers out of the financials it's still you don't know because they're going to dilute the heck out of owners guys we didn't even scratch the surface yet on the eight pillars because of the way this company is structured so you really need to watch this next video on our eight pillar process and
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