저자: Paul · 외국인
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엔비디아가 실적 발표했으나 EPS는 전년 대비 감소, 매출은 3% 증가. 최근 매출 급증은 공급 부족 기반의 일시적 현상일 수 있음. 8가지 원칙 기준 PE 85~89배로 고평가. 자체 주식 분석 도구로 보수적 가정 적용 시 적정가 범위 23~53달러(중간 40달러)로 현재가 168달러보다 훨씬 낮음. 당장 매수는 비추천하고 관심종목 등록 및 가격 하락 시 알림 설정을 제시.
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nvidia just reported after hours and their profit they beat 51 cents versus 50 cents expected and their revenue was in line now the 51 cents was still a drop of 50 year-over-year in terms of eps so i'd be wondering wait a second if their revenue because their revenue beat last year by three percent so the revenue is up how's their profit lower well this was a report from august 8th and august 8th they talked about a couple of things but one thing they note here so scroll down just a little bit second quarter results are expected to include approximately 1.3 billion dollars of charges primarily for inventory and related reserves okay so 1.3 billion when you have two and a half billion shares outstanding that's over 50 cents right then and there so they're probably in line when adding those things back in in terms of revenue only up three percent from their same report on august 8th look at all the areas they have year over year down 31 up 61 down four up 45 down 66 up three so a lot of areas up and down here now remember guys if you go watch our videos from the past the one thing i focused on when it came to processors chips anything computer related was there was a big surge in demand and a limited supply last year people's gross margins were insane their profit margins were crazy why very simply supply and demand i love supply and demand it makes things easier makes things better makes the world really fair however my comment was always is this a permanent plateau in that demand and i question that and you can see from revenue growth so let's go to our software real quick because i want to show you what i'm talking about here so this is our software and again if you have it please follow along if you don't have it you're crazy it's less than a cup of coffee per day so look at their revenue jump from this last 12 from the previous 12 months to this last 12 months 19 billion to 29 billion yet they only saw a three percent increase year over year in this last quarter in revenue how is that why how is that how's that possible well things cool down the demand decrease also with supply chains it's harder to sell stuff when you have limited supply so don't always assume that a big jump is a permanent jump these jumps right here look at their look at their revenue for the last five years 11 10.7 11.8 19.3 29.5 i mean this is huge growth in the last five years is that sustainable that's the question so if you're new to this channel i'm paul i'm a value investor what i like to do i like to look at the quantitative aspects of a business and decide if i go further and learn more about the business to invest in it i don't sit there and worry about what the company does initially there are 10 000 companies out there i'm gonna weed them out based on certain quantitative aspects that i use in our eight pillar process for nvidia and for a lot of companies lately i've been listing a lot of this big jumps in revenue because of limited supply limited demand and excess supply other way around limited supply excess demand that is a temporary issue it could be permanent in a lot of areas maybe but for things like this and automobiles i feel like it's just a temporary thing so when looking at the future i don't go based on one fluke or two years of fluke responses and results just like when it comes to cruise lines and airplanes and airlines we don't sit there and assume that the time of kobe was a permanent thing i mean literally airlines and cruises had 99 drops in revenue that's an insane number but that wasn't permanent so the same thing goes on the upside you can't assume that a temporary supply and demand elevation or decrease is a permanent permanent thing so let's go look at nvidia and let's go see what's going on here with the company and look at from an eight pillar perspective so we're gonna click on our eight pillars tab on our software so a couple of things stand out the first and last pillars are the five-year pe ratio and the five-year price of free cash flow ratio there's a reason why i don't look at one-year numbers one-year numbers can have fluke events occur whether it's expenses look at the last quarter they had 1.3 billion dollars in expenses attributed that were temporary you can't possibly look at that on a one-year basis and assume that's that's that's a normal thing so you look at long term but look at these ratios 85 and 89 this is not a startup this company is 20 years old it was started in 1993.
it has 30 billion dollars in revenue even before covet hit it had 12 billion dollars in revenue so this is not a company that has a in my opinion amazing amazing growth potential that can justify 85 times in 88 times earnings and free cash flow so that's the first thing i see where i go ugh second thing shares outstanding now i will say this usually i hate shares outstanding going up but when the company is this expensive all the cfo is doing is saying hey listen everybody thinks our our our shares are awesome they're massive overpriced let's fund our business that way there are two ways to fund a business debt or equity so when they're releasing more shares they're funding through equity that's better than taking on debt because if you're giving people overpriced shares it's funding the future at overpriced levels i'm fine with that now overall when a company is gets more moderately priced i want to see them buying back shares and rewarding the investors who've been with them for a long period of time that's a very important thing for a company to do when the stock price is lower and the valuations are much lower but overall obviously high return on invested capital which is pretty common in tech that means they really do a great job of investing the money that is inside the business revenue growth we saw that already net income saw huge numbers and free cash flow up so everything here is huge now i don't know how accurate i mean i'm looking at this going are we seriously paying a 0.1 percent dividend here 400 million dollars obviously they can afford it their five-year average free cash flow is 4.9 their last year's free cash flow is almost 8 billion but look at this big time profit margin gross margin of 65 that means for every extra unit they sell it adds 65 cents 65 of that money goes to the bottom line the bottom line percentage very consistent 30 and 32 30 over the last five years and 32 last year so what does this mean overall this mean you should avoid this company completely not necessarily remember companies that have high growth potential and amazing moats those are the companies you should pay a premium for so what i'm going to do now is i'm going to go to our stock analyzer tool this is something we've created a few years ago i was doing this on an excel sheet and all the viewers were saying hey how do i get that excel sheet so we created the software and part of that was a stock analyzer tool every investment is the present value of all future cash flow we don't know the future but to make assumptions about the future right with those assumptions they're unknown so we're doing a range so what the stock analyzer tool does is it allows me to look at number of years of analysis so i'm gonna do 10 years you can do one of 20 but it puts in low middle and high assumptions for revenue growth profit margin and free cash flow margin and then we put in what do we think the pe and the price of free cash flow will be at the end of our time period and then inputting a desired return once we've done all that it doesn't include the balance sheet it'll spit out a number and that's the it'll spell out several numbers but that's basically going to tell us what we think the company should what we should pay for the company today based on what we think the assumptions are now this isn't a go and do it it's a starting point for saying okay this is in the ballpark so if you're watching this video if you've seen a lot of our videos i do recommend watch this part over and over because this stock analyzer tool is so useful for understanding investing it really makes you understand that every investment's the present value about future cash flow and i want you to understand how i come up with these assumptions so the first one revenue growth now guys one five and 10-year numbers they've done 23.8 percent a year for the last 10 years 28 and 53 last year 28 for five years now let me put it this way let's go to their revenue numbers what were their revenue numbers last year 30 billion dollars we said okay let's say they did 28 let's say they did that 23 a year for the next 10 years this is very simple math that means they would do 253 billion dollars in 10 years is that probable probably not is it possible absolutely everything's possible but is it probable in the world of investing your job is to be conservative and buy the stock when the stock is selling for less those conservative assumptions i don't think 23 percent is a reasonable expectation what is a reasonable expectation this is where the guessing game becomes i will say this the revenue went from 12 billion to 30 billion is it going to sustain that level i don't know but the assumption i'm making here you're going to be a little bit shocked but i'm going to show you how i'm doing it this way i'm gonna assume they lose two percent a year for the next ten years i'm gonna assume that ten years from now because three years ago they did twelve billion dollars in revenue ten years from now they lose two percent a year it's roughly 20 to 25 they're still having major growth in their 12 billion dollar level okay might be too conservative but it's just to give me an idea of where we stand my next one my middle assumption i'm gonna assume three percent growth a year and my high assumption i'm gonna assume eight percent growth a year okay so i have negative two i have three percent i have eight percent so i actually have contracting i'm assuming it's going to contract for a while because it probably what's actually gonna happen is if it does contract it'd probably be more like this as a contraction all right profit margin now when it comes to profit margin 10 years over the last 10 years they've done 27 in the last five years have done 30 and last year they did 32 i'm not going to focus on the on the 10-year number because the last year or two has been very very good for these chip companies they could pretty much charge any price they wanted and within reason of course so i'm going to sit there and er on the side of the 10-year number i'm going to go 24 26 and 28.
i'm going to do the exact same thing for free cash flow free cash flow margin is the same as profit margin except involving free cash flow and over long periods of time free cash flow and earnings should be very similar so it's it is a reasonable assumption to make and you see right here they're actually pretty similar here they're actually well except for this last year the free cash flow number was a little bit was a lot lower but other than that it was very similar okay now finally pe and price the free cash flow i'm also going to sign the same numbers here for the same reasons they should be in line but this is where pe is the current pe is 45 and the current price of free cash flow 24.
guys this is very very high and it's still based on really high profit because of the fact they had so much revenue so i'm assuming the future is not going to be that great so a company that's going to lose 2 a year let's assume a now it's still nvidia even though they might lose two percent a year it's just for my analysis here that i want to sit there and look at that do i actually believe they're gonna lose two percent a year no but i do believe that they'll probably fall if they do fall it'll be a quick one and then back to growth again as things stabilize they could very well have the plateau right here and move on as i said they did three percent revenue growth year over year in uh over the last year so they could very well just have this could be a completely egregious assumption which i'm okay with i'm gonna do a pe of 13 15 and 17.
same thing with the price of free cash flow because guys the bigger and bigger company gets it's very difficult to have a high pe there's less growth i was thinking about this the other day i thought about an analogy let's say tiger woods is right here and a new golfer is right here which one's more likely to shave two strokes off their game the new golfer or tiger woods clearly the new golfer why because tiger woods already averages 68 strokes around or whatever to go to 66 would be so so difficult but a new golfer who's averaging 150 around it's easy for them to go to 148.
that's the same thing here you just you assign a bigger pe to a smaller company that has more growth potential but you pay more in my opinion for the company overall like tiger woods that makes more money so remember that analogy there golfer who just started versus tiger woods which one has better growth potential in terms of their golf game clearly the new golfer okay final thing somebody sent me a message desired annual return now in this situation guys i'm actually going to be a little bit different here i'm going to be a little bit lower on my desired integral turn for the low side i'm probably going to do 12 and a half percent 12 and a half percent and 15 and the reason being this high number eight percent a year with higher margin all this stuff it's a little rich to me so i want a little bit more margin of safety in there because the end of the day your goal is to make these the desired return factor in some sort of margin of safety that's why we don't put in the nine or ten percent the market does because you might as well then just buy an etf and stay with the market so let's do that 12 and a half 12 and a half and 15 i'm gonna hit the analyze button now again guys the stock is currently at 168 is down two and a half percent after hours down four bucks there's gonna be six numbers that pop up low middle and high for earnings and low middle and high for free cash flow prices reflect our multiples if it's all green it doesn't mean go out and buy what it means is go out there and verify this information is correct how do you do that go read the 10k go read other articles go see what the future holds what they're saying about the future but most importantly join our community our community has so thousands and thousands of people who are sitting there looking to invest and they're like-minded people who want to do research the best thing to do with thousands of people is go in the chats and see who's talking about nvidia you can actually literally go in there and type in nvidia and it'll show you all the messages that involve nvidia go in there have the conversation and again this is all for less than a cup of coffee per day you get all the software all the eight pillars all the 30 years of financial data and the community it's an absolute no-brainer and everything's on your phone as well so i hit the analyze button scroll down oh boy 23 is the low 53 is the high 40 is the middle and guys guess what it makes sense based on these pe's based on these pes i look at it going yeah i'm not touching this thing it's too far away but i'm going to add it to my watch list right here i might add it at 55.
notify me now i'll get an email i get a notification on the website and i'll get on my phone so guys i appreciate this if you want to learn more about our 8 pillar process watch this next video on our 8 pillars and please don't forget to subscribe to our channel thank you very much for your time you
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