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you have a huge Tesla stock price starting to increase from Dan ice so he's in the top 100 Wall Street analysts according to tip pranks he increases doesn't stop price Target by almost 50 percent it went from 215 to 300 one reason of course is Ford and GM pondering with Tesla to access the supercharger network but mostly I think it really only has to do with this going up and by the way Dan did say before that the market sentiment does influence his price targets for example when we had all of his Twitter drama then I've said that that compressed the Tesla stock multiple leading to lower Tesla stock price targets and that had nothing to do he said basically with the fundamentals of Tesla but it did have to do with a sentiment around Tesla stock while many analysts do not take sentiments supposedly into account although they really still do Dan ice admits that he does it's not something that that I do but it has been working for him this year it put him in the top 100 of all of Wall Street analysts Dennis was just on TV to discuss Tesla's stock so let's take a look at the full clip two-thirds of the world is covered by water and the rest is covered by you Dan Ives it's a lot of stocks in your universe that you cover but Tesla's certainly right up there what is it about this stock right now in the company that is giving you uh so much bullishness yeah I think what's happened it's really it's just some of the parts I don't want to call an AWS moment uh almost an apple Services moment for Tessa because what's starting to happen now is that the 313 area code after years of resisting they recognize they need tests and I think when you look at the supercharger perspective from a revenue perspective you go out 2025 GM Ford they get 15 share you're looking now an incremental three billion 4 billion a year of Revenue that was not there we know that Tesla aims for 10 profitability all costs included for its charging business and then Ives assumes that Tesla will bring an additional 4 billion dollars in Revenue just from Ford and GM charging its vehicles at Tesla's superchargers which should be about 400 million dollars in profit we can roughly calculate how much supposedly this should add to Tesla's total stock price we just need to take the total number of Tesla shares which is three and a half billion we used that number to divide the profit that we would generate from a supercharging business and we get 11 and a half cents per share in earnings and if you want to sign today's Tesla stock price to earnings ratio of 72 you go back to the earnings per share and you multiply that by 72 and you get about eight dollars added to Tesla stock you can assign a lower multiple if you like or you may project more Revenue to be generated from from Tesla supercharging business either way what is clear is that that business is going to make money and that will have a material impact on Tesla stock while it's not a crazy embed it is a material impact that we can measure and it will be a bigger impact once every automaker in the US and everywhere else as well makes a deal with Tesla and I think we're starting to happen right now for Tesla from batteries to supercharger to storage because some of the parts thesis is now starting I believe in the early stages to play out with investors that's really what's starting to happen now with the stock in my opinion to us retail Tesla stock investors energy storage business there's no news really and especially after Ford sign that deal with Tesla it was really obvious that other companies will follow and now it just abundantly extremely painfully obvious that pretty much everyone else will follow for NGM and they will also a partner with Tesla to access Tesla superchargers so Wall Street is a little bit late here there is a another theory that yeah they he got them on the network and he got them on the technology but that design they have a hundred years of refreshing designs with high frequency and in the end that's going to mean better unit sales for the legacies than perhaps the Teslas what do you think he's saying it as if Tesla is not going to be able to refresh its own vehicles and he's saying it as if Tesla does not have the world's single best-selling vehicle in production right now every week we have new sightings of a refreshed model 3 being tested on the streets and until now Tesla didn't really how to coordinate a major refresh between multiple factories for a vehicle that sells a lot of units every single year so I understand why someone may want to question Tesla right now because of the model S and X refresh did not go exactly as planned but that vehicle is not really important and I don't think Tesla's really paying much attention attention to VX and S and you could literally delete these two vehicles and it wouldn't make almost any difference to Tesla's business but with the model 3 refresh I think Tesla is actually going to try so if that's a concern for you keep a close eye on how Tesla executes this and I think it will be just fine and if for any reason there are major hiccups Tesla will learn from these experiences and then later it will Implement all of these learnings for the next refresh which is going to be for model Y which is codenamed Juniper but this one is going to be coming out much later after model 3 refresh is actually released the model Y is expected to be refreshed in October of next year but the model 3 is expected to be refreshed within the next few months musk needs GM and Ford actually be successful for the broader EV Vision in terms of just adoption in the United States move the curve move the adoption curve yeah and it's the jobs thesis in other words like from app I did and I think that's really what's starting to play and that's why I right now you're seeing Farley and Mary ultimately partner with moss because I believe this is just the first step it's starting with superchargers and ultimately I think next step could be Battery Technology and I think that's the Golden Goose right now is that they've built the castle waiting for others to call Farley called Mary called and I think it's just the start of what I view especially with demand that's I view it stable in terms of you know we suck coming out of our age checks being Asia the last few weeks margins I think now are starting to trough out the next one to two quarters and I think that's why investors right now are really starting to look at this in a different story until we see a pretty good ramp of 4680 so I'm having a difficult time seeing exactly why these other automakers would have the urgency to license The Battery Technology from Tesla it is very obvious why they should want to access Tesla superchargers because without charging you can can't really sell vehicles easily but speaking of batteries and specifically 4680s Tesla has not mass produced these yet so I think Ford and Gia might be a little bit skeptical looking at this technology and they already pretty much proven that they would rather wait things out for example with abs and be left behind instead of trying to adopt technology early it would be really smart for them to license The Battery Technology from Tesla but I don't think they are going to do it at least not anytime soon they won't do it until they absolutely have to explain to our viewers just the revenue opportunity from these charging stations how does Tesla make money from them what are other opportunities that it has from all these cars stopping at these stations sure so 12 000 supercharger Network and when you start thinking about they're really the only one that's right range anxiety why would a you know a gym a Dave a Sarah not buy an actual technology why would they not buy EVS it's because the rain changes that so now supercharger Tesla has it they is Cricket they make per charge if now from a revenue perspective Services we think by 2024 it's about 10 billion that we're talking about annually Revenue margins much higher than Autos that's almost like software like margins now GM Ford you get what's called a million cars on that Network that's incremental in the billions two three four billion per year that was not there on an annuity and I think that's why where you're starting the reason I call an AWS moment is that I think for many years AWS not really valued from an Amazon right now all of a sudden that's probably pretty high multiple on a recurring Revenue stream like that Apple Services okay I was signed 100 billion you go back years ago today we think it's worth 1.4 trillion so that's why I view it in terms of the reason I believe musk is playing chess and others are playing checkers you're now starting to see it play out it almost sounds like Dan expects dessel to make softer like margins from his supercharging business I'm not really sure if he meant it exactly like that maybe he just misspoke but I don't think it would be wise to go against elon's guidance here Elon is only guiding for 10 profitability from the charging business while I'm a lot more excited about is full cell driving Elon says that the rate of improvement is accelerating and no wonder because everyone who has full self-driving now can actually use full self-driving beta that gives Tesla a lot more data and check what Kevin is saying about this I actually agree using autopilot FSD features since 2017 I'd get used to oh I should take over here because it sucks here I've already forgotten 99 of those hard spots and now find myself forgetting I was even in the driver's seat I just feel like an attentive passenger and it appears to me that Kevin is changing his sentiment about Tesla's stuck here because check this out so to the point if it continues improving at even this pace last six months full autonomy is inevitable Kevin did not say things like that before earlier he didn't seem to care much about full self driving and it didn't seem like he was really assigning any real value to full self-driving he understood that yeah maybe it's a possibility it will happen and if it does it will be very valuable but maybe it won't or if it does it will take a very long time but what he's saying now is very different I'm still on the 11.36 version and sometimes it's great sometimes it's uh I just had a drive of maybe 10 minutes through the city here in Vancouver City and I had to disengage maybe about six or eight times and none of these were critical safety interventions so that was good and really most of these interventions were just the car doing something that's totally safe and fine but it would just look weird to anyone else driving so I just did not want to be embarrassed so I can't wait for this next version and hopefully the next version won't embarrass me while driving as often as this one because in many cases it does work pretty well back in November December the car would just refuse to go through a certain place it would just disengage immediately now it pretty much yeah right now actually every single time at least it tries and then it may make me feel uncomfortable but usually it handles things just fine but it does make me feel uncomfortable sometimes so unless I'm trying to stress test it I disengage and now do me a favor and do not disengage yeah click the like button and subscribe if you haven't yet and YouTube wants you to watch this video and as usually YouTube is pretty good with suggestions and in this video I talk about Tesla starting to advertise my name is Matt folks
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