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Whoa. Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Elon Musk was just awarded 96 million shares of Tesla stock. Here's everything that you need to know about this from the details to the upsides to the downsides and what my opinion is, which I'll include towards the end of the video. Let's just quickly get started.
So, these are 96 million shares worth about $29 billion. You'll note that's about a fraction of the $56 billion, about 48% of a haircut there, of the $56 billion that Elon Musk has twice gotten approved by shareholder vote. This is actually incredible because this $29 billion was dictated by a two member special compensation committee, Robin and Kathleen Thompson.
They directed this and awarded it to Elon Musk, not through a shareholder vote, but the prior two votes that were approved by the majority of shareholders were rejected by a court in Delaware. We don't need to go into all the details because we've done it all before and we're still pending litigation on the appeals regarding this and TBD, what the judge is going to do at this point.
But the point is Tesla's basically telling you, hey, look, we didn't want to lose Elon Musk, so we're going to give him a good faith first step towards staying with the company. Now, I personally don't actually think Elon at any point was really planning on leaving. I think the board kind of has to run cover here to give a reason as to why they're issuing this money, as to why Elon is missionritical to the company.
So that way the same judge or some other judge doesn't just sort of spawn in and say, "Hey, you're just trying to circumvent, you know, litigation that's still pending." So anyway, uh the board's official statement is that we are confident that this award will incentivize Elon Musk to remain at Tesla.
Again, I personally don't actually really think he was planning on leaving, but anyway, the details of this are that Elon needs to agree to stay with Tesla for two years in a senior leadership role. I did think it was interesting they mentioned senior leadership role as opposed to CEO because it sort of leaves the door open to him potentially over the next two years not being the CEO, but maybe just being a senior advisor.
So, it is sort of a pretty open door there. Uh and obviously it comes after Elon Musk's political stint here which a lot of people say took his focus away from the importance of a model 2 or Tesla Q and basically divided his attention into Twitter and politics as sort of new ventures in place of the model 2 or Q uh and then focusing the company of Tesla just on Optimus and FSD leaving that potential blind spot of manufacturing sales.
which is somewhat important for a manufacturing company. Anyway, the Elon Musk will be required to hold these shares for 5 years with the exception of for paying taxes. So, there could be a little bit of selling pressure given that uh Elon Musk is going to get these shares issued at about $23 and some change.
Uh which means he'll probably have to pay taxes on about $2.24 billion. So, call it somewhere probably around 1.1ish, maybe even a little bit more than 50% thanks to the uh Obama tax. So, you know, Elon Musk is going to have to pay a chunk of taxes here, assuming, of course, if they call these short-term gains or long-term gains.
The point is he'll be paying a chunk of taxes, probably around a billion dollars. Uh although sometimes you see corporations just pay those taxes for the person as part of the compensation package. So, who knows? But I don't think a billion dollars of selling pressure here or there for taxes is that big of a deal.
If anything, this probably just provides a lot of certainty to shareholders, which is what people are looking for. These are voting shares, and the board is making it clear that these are not to be a sort of double dip. So, if for whatever reason the prior $56 billion pay package uh gets approved, then this package or or the prior one would just be adjusted to basically net out to make sure that Elon Musk isn't essentially double dipping here.
Now, when it comes to selling pressure, remember how critical Elon can be when it comes to selling pressure. In 2022, Elon Musk uh sold about $24 billion of Tesla stock. For hodlers of Tesla, that was an extremely painful period because it was basically all year down. And even when stock started, Nike swoosh recovering, Tesla didn't really recover until the summer of 2024, which is quite a long time of kind of dragging people through the dirt.
And so obviously there are a lot of people who were hurt by that. They were hurt by the transition uh away from hey we're going to be a company that generates uh you know 20 million vehicles of production every single year because we're going to be the most affordable and safest vehicle that's on the road which is frankly what a lot of originally people got behind.
They didn't necessarily get behind this idea of hey it's all going to be autonomous. It's going to be hey let's manufacture 20 million vehicles have the best nearly autonomous software that people can just sort of sit and supervise right essentially supervised FSD like a lot of a lot of original investors OG investors are like look robo taxi that's cool and all but we'll call that the icing on the cake optimist that's cool and all we'll call that the icing on the cake but the core of the business is manufacture 20 million vehicles which is what Elon always said uh become the lowest cost of ownership vehicle and then advertise that which in 2022 he suggested we Tesla would start advertising which to some extent they have started doing which is great.
That said though you know a lot of people are frustrated because they say hey well you know should Elon Musk be getting paid this after his political stint you know and the shift away from mass production hurt the company even more and this is where most people respond and say well a deal is a deal.
the $56 billion deal was transparent enough. It was voted on twice by shareholders. Like, how much more transparent could you be? If anybody was misled in the 2018 shareholder vote, then they had a chance to vote no in the next shareholder vote that we had that was also approved by the majority of investors.
And when that was approved on that shareholder vote, just really about 3 to four weeks later, Tesla skyrocketed. uh because one of the benefits of actually having a compensation plan set is that now the stock market gets an element of certainty that ah okay cool like we are going to find a way to compensate Elon we don't have to underwrite this idea of Elon leaving because he's promising to stay for a certain period of time which I think he was going to do anyway uh but realistically I think there's a lot of concern over okay well like what is the compensation going to be it's kind of like with tariffs to some extent it's like, "All right, well, can can you just give us a number so we could just plan and know what's going to come?" Obviously, there's still the potential that, you know, the same judge or, you know, some regulators step in and say, "Hey, no, like you guys are trying to circumvent an active, you know, pending litigation here, whatever." Uh, that's possible.
It's going to piss a lot of people off. But, uh, you know, my take is this is near-term bullish for Tesla. Uh because the frank reality is at this point if you don't like Elon Musk, you're probably not in the stock. If you think he just got lucky and his luck has run up and he's run this company a muck with robots that won't work because you know Optimus 2 needs a nearly a full redesign, not on sort of the physical body of it because of the core components uh pending now master plan 3.
Those are all things Elon talked about in last earnings call. uh or that you know the robo taxi deployment is frankly just Uber with FSD then you know if you think those things you probably don't own the stock. So, I don't think anyone actually hearing this news that doesn't say like that owns the stock is thinking anything other than good, pay the man what he's worth.
Like that's what was agreed upon twice and it was a long shot back then when it was agreed upon. Just because it's a big number now doesn't mean we should reneg on that deal. And again, if you don't like what's being done with robotics or Optimus, well, that's the same thing and robo taxis then don't.
you probably don't own the stock and it doesn't matter to you anyway. Now, if instead you think that this is a pattern of just success and failure and ultimately success again, in other words, the entrepreneurial ups and downs and we're just maybe in a little bit of a low point right now. This is very bullish because after all Tesla is a company that is brought to you by the same person who is digging pretty amazing tunnels via the Boring Company and interconnecting Las Vegas and potentially soon Tennessee in a music loop is giving people life essentially again via Neurolink and is landing reusable not only booster rockets but also spacecraft which is quite frankly incredible.
uh although those being caught with little bitty arms little different but some would say even more impressive and uh you know ushering in internet to remotes part remote parts of the entire world via low earth orbit satellites uh and ushering in an EV revolution. Yes, under substantial tax credits, but still somebody else could have done it.
But no, it was it was Elon who ushered it in, right? And a charging infrastructure throughout the entire United States. So, you know, it's it's really hard to bet against that sort of reputation. Uh, and again, like I I would if if you don't believe this is a good thing, don't own the stock. Uh, otherwise, it's probably bullish and it should help push the stock back through its 318 level that it just lost.
obviously pending uh larger macro issues. Those would be independent of what happens here with Tesla. Obviously, if this jobs report was just a little blip, then uh you know, we're back to the races and macro be fine, then there's nothing to worry about. But if this jobs report is sort of the beginning of a recession that usually occurs on average 6 months after the yield curve uninverts, which is basically what happened in December of 2024, then uh you might be thinking, all right, well, we're we're due for um potential recessionary time.
Obviously, Tesla at this point could suffer a little bit. And previously, we've always thought that Tesla would have some recession resilience. Uh but that would have only been in the event of a white collar recession that never ended up happening. Now white collar being replaced by AI and high interest rates is actually pretty painful for an automaker.
However, if we do hit a recession, rates will probably be lower than they ever were before. It's going to take so much more money printing to get us out of an AI uh recession. Uh which those two things coinciding. I'm not saying AI is causing the recession and so it will become very affordable to end up buying a car.
So, uh, who knows? Maybe you just huddle. But, uh, shortterm, I think bullish for Tesla here. Uh, it is good on the Tesla community to get at least some level of certainty here. Of course, pending some form of judicial intervention, which is possible, but frankly, I don't think Tesla's leadership is going to give up.
They're gonna get Elon to this 20% or 25% voting control. Anyway, my thoughts on this. Uh, if you like this perspective, consider subscribing to the channel, share the video, and we'll see you in the next one. Goodbye and good luck.
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