저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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트럼프의 BLS 국장 해임과 고용통계 신뢰성 논란을 다룸. 고용조사 응답률 저하(약 30%대)와 수정치 변동성 때문에 데이터 공백이 크며, 정치적 조작만이 원인이 아니라고 주장. 연준 독립성 훼손 우려와 향후 변동성 확대 예상. 영상 내 강의 홍보 및 할인 코드 언급이 다수 포함됨.
다듬은 글
just saw Peter Navaro get interviewed on Bloomberg as to why why would the BLS fail so miserably in their jobs report. Is it because they're being political or do they just suck at their jobs? In this video, I'm going to give you a breakdown of what nobody's actually telling you about why these numbers suck as much as they do.
Jack, where are we going, by the way? We're going to Japan. That's right, cuz we're sick of trying to this crap. We're getting out of here. But remember, never forget, release the files. Expires tonight at 11:59. Meet Kevin. Get lifetime access. Meet Kevin.com. Get the course. Okay, so listen. Here's what's going on.
So Peter Navaro gets on Bloomberg and tells us, look, the BLS chief had to be fired by Donald Trump, which is totally like a classic dictatory move, but it's okay. You know, I'm not trying to be like anti-MAGA here. I'm trying to get everybody to piss me off. That's my goal. Okay, that's why I said that.
I did it on purpose so you could get mad at me. The Supreme Court basically gave him a license to do that. So in fairness, the Supreme Court's like, "Yo, bro, if you don't like the heads of your, you know, agencies, you have the right to fire them. Just don't touch the Federal Reserve because if you touch the head of the Federal Reserve, you were touching a quasi governmental unique governmentish agency that you should not be touching." The Supreme Court was very specific about that.
Now, this is where a lot of people get into like, why are we paying for the Federal Reserve? Usually, the Federal Reserve actually pays us when they pay out like zero on their deposits uh and they hold treasuries that earn yield and they just give all that extra profit back to the United States. Things have reversed now because we're paying out on money markets essentially, right?
Zero uh zero risk money markets at four and a half. we're paying out way more than you might earn on certain treasuries which might only be yielding like 39 on a two-year, right? So that's where the Fed loses money. Anyway, that's really beside the point. What what really matters here is what is Peter Navaro saying and what is he missing?
So what Peter Navaro is doing is he's saying look the Bureau of Labor Statistics obviously sucks because either and this is why Donald Trump not only is eligible to fire the head of the BLS because of the Supreme Court standard uh and ruling, but also because of the two factors. Number one, they either suck at doing their job because they're politically manipulating the data to try to make Donald Trump look bad.
Donald Trump prefers that argument. Or number two, they are just incompetent and fail at collecting data. So why do you need more context to this? Because obviously politically that's a very easy thing to say. Oh, this is either uh designed to be political or these people just suck. Okay. Well, what if it's neither of those?
Is that possible? Yes, it actually is. The reason it's possible is the following. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases labor reports, they generally release job reports on the first Friday of a month. In this case, it was literally August 1st, which means they are really only reporting realistically data that they've collected for the first 3 weeks of July.
And the reality is Americans are really bad at turning in these labor surveys or picking up the phone to answer the phone calls from the surveyors who conduct surveys on either employers via the payroll survey, the establishment survey, or the household survey where they call people at their homes, right?
problem is when that rate plummets to like a 30% response rate, you get really big holes in the data. And 6 weeks later when people call you and go, "Oh, hey, yeah, I know you reached out for information about what happened in June. Sorry I got busy in life and I didn't get back to you for, you know, six extra weeks.
Here's what actually happened at our business or here's how many jobs I have." Then they have the concrete data that finally trickled in and they're like, "Oh, all right." Then you have your first set of revisions, but then you still don't have a 100% response rate. So you use new data that comes in over time as well as making revisions every quarter for that black hole of data you have to try to understand, oh, okay, what's actually going on in the labor market?
Guess how many people who get deported answer the phone call from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Like zero. So all of these things have to get filled in with adjustments. And these adjustments are really hard. Now look, I'm not here to shill for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but let's just make this like hands down as simple as possible.
collecting data and giving you jobs data on the country uh at at the moment of uh uh you know the first Friday of the very next month is insane. This is why ADP volatility the private survey which they literally use payrolls data because they're a payroll processing company even they can't get it straight.
They make revisions and even they have insane volatility. So when you put all of that together, it's the private companies have trouble doing this. So what you're asking of these entities is actually really hard. But nobody gives a flying hoodie about any of that. All people care about is Democrats are going to go, "Ah, see it's maggot policies back at it again." These planes are so sick coming in.
They're so big, man. I love two story. I love the big pee pees. Hey yo, I guess it's not technically a private plane. Anyway, so um Lauren's getting anxious. She's got that anxious look. We should get going. Let's let's get going. Uh so then, uh okay, then you got the MAGA folks that are like, "Oh, this is just the Biden economy.
They're purposefully trying to screw us." The data is always volatile. And guess when it is most volatile, when it is painful to report payrolls data, when you're losing your job or you're an employer and you're having to fire people, that's when you least want to report data. That's when you least want to answer the phone.
That's when you least want to report to these or respond to these surveys because you're like, I I don't have time for this. I've got I've got to just make ends meet, right? That's what it comes down to. So, we got to go. Yeah. Here, take mine. You need passports, too? Oh, yeah. Here you go. I understand.
Would you mind taking that and then take this as well? Jack, hold on a second. Let me finish my video. All right, there you go. All the Okay, cool. So, um, what does this mean? Like, what's the bottom line takeaway for all of this? Well, you have to also remember what just happened. We just had somebody who quit at the Federal Reserve, Cougler.
She was a Biden appointee. She was a voting member at the Fed. I think she was probably pressured out. Donald Trump doesn't like people telling him the reality of what's happening in the world if unless it aligns with exactly what he wants. This means expect more volatility. Now, best case scenario, we keep people like JPO and independent people as long as possible who at least have some coonas to fight back a little bit so at least we can get somewhat of neutral data.
Hopefully. Hopefully. Everybody's got bias, right? Let's just be real about that. My biggest fear is what happens when we get two years down the road and let's say we're in a deep recession or whatever and everybody's been replaced with knee benders. How are we ever going to trust the comeback? Right?
That's the hardest part. And that's why we try to get politics out of data. It's why we try to get politics out of the Fed so that yes, when you go through the normal phase of the business cycle, at least when you're on the comeback, you can trust it. You could believe in it. these kind of appointments or firings or whatever make that harder.
Now, I don't know the head of the BLS, so who knows? Maybe they screwed up. And frankly, the data has been all freaking over the place. Again, it makes sense when the data is most critical, when it is most important to get the most accurate data. We get the lowest survey responses and the least accurate data.
And I'll tell you, there's only one thing that we can guarantee. Number one, you could subscribe to this guy. What's What's your channel name? Meet Jack. Meet Jack. And you could use coupon code release the files before 11:59 tonight. Also, you should call it a plane plane. Like it's just like a regular plane.
Like a plane. A plane plane. OP. P. Yeah. Plane plane. But do you get it? Like it's not just like the plane like the aircraft like one's the plane that's the aircraft and one's like just like a plane. Oh, it's generic. Like if like a plain white vanilla plane. Wow. You got anything to say? Nope. Comment the video.
Oh, she's ducking. She's ducking away. But look at that beautiful hair. Get off.
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