저자: 미상 · 외국인
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테슬라 옵션에 $5M 규모 스윕 주문이 장 마감 직전 유입돼 비정상 자금흐름으로 판단. 저항선(약 470~500) 및 상승 삼각형 패턴 언급하며 단기 반등 가능성 제시. 자신은 월봉 지표와 33 공정가치 밴드가 녹색 전환해야 매수 가능하다며 현재는 포지션 없음. 무료 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Yesterday we did a video on this multi-million dollar sweep order that hit the options market for Tesla and then today, right before the market closed, literally 3 minutes, we saw another $5 million in orders come in for the same exact requirements that we saw yesterday. Above the ask, all were sweeps, this shows urgency, over $5 million, which shows size, and we have time on our hands, about one, you know, about 3 weeks to 4 weeks till expiration, 6 12.
So, it's about a couple of weeks from now. This is very unusual, and what we're going to talk about in this video is this flow specifically, how it fits within the framework of how I see Tesla, and what this actually means. Now, the first thing to take into consideration is that these unusual options flows are just orders.
I think that a lot of people get lost behind the idea of what a flow actually is. A flow is basically just a cadence of options orders. Now, there's actually a free options flow course that we provide down in the description, I'll put that there for you that will explain all of this in detail. But basically, what makes an order in the options market unusual are three main things that we just talked about.
There needs to be size, meaning under the value category, there needs to be a lot of volume, right? We have values total within this one cadence of orders of about 3 to 4 million dollars. The next thing that we need to see is the underscore A and the sweep function. This means that all of it was filled under one specific exchange, which is very important, it shows urgency.
And the underscore A means that they're paying at the ask, they're paying the absolute worst price possible, right? Imagine that you're going to put a $5 million order in and then hit the market button. That's basically equivalent to what this is. And then of course, the expiration, 6 12. As we said before, it's about 3 weeks till expiration.
It's not like it's expiring at the end of this week, it's not like they were day trading these. They're most likely going to hold these at least for a week or so. Now, if we click here, we're also going to be able to see the contract's history. The contracts have been doing nothing but going down in value.
This gold line represents the value of the contract, finally bottoming, and then today we get about 5,000 volume in just the last couple minutes of the session. So, open interest up until today was 626. That means 626 contracts were held at market open today. 4,500 volume hit within just the last couple of minutes.
That is very unusual. That is not multiple people. That is one massive order, and you can see that these are the orders right here. So, this triggers an unusual suspicious alert for me. Now, I need you to understand that I don't just operate based off of these unusual alerts. In order for a trade to actually be taken within our flow fund that we started back in October, we need to see the combined signal system, which is our framework and our trading strategy, in conjunction with an unusual options flow.
So, if we look at Tesla right now without our framework and without all of our indicators, you will see that price has bounced off of this trend level. If I were looking at this, my expectation would be best case another move to 470, 480, or 500 maybe within the next 30 to 60 days. You'll see that there is a big liquidity level or a big resistance level right here.
And you'll see as well that we also have a ascending triangle pattern. So, normally what will happen here is price will have equal highs, price will pull back and bounce, and then price will continue to do this until eventually it squeezes and breaks out to the upside. So, I'm in no way, shape, or form saying that Tesla's going to break out to like 600 or something at this point.
There's a couple of things that need to happen, which we'll talk about in this video. But, right now it does look like maybe a move back to the or 480 could be in the work. Now, I removed all of my bullish positions and my outlook on Tesla at the end of March. Main reason was because the monthly BX closed dark red.
And that means within my framework that we are no longer in a bull cycle. Now, of course, just because I exited the position doesn't mean that it has to sell off, right? About 20 to 25% of the time we will get a V-shape recovery. That's exactly what happened with Tesla. That's exactly what happened with the S&P 500.
But once we get back into a bull cycle, we can just trade once again, right? We don't have to focus on getting the best price possible. If we get back into a bull cycle, we can play the move just like we did before. And as I've said before, I'm also trading literally like 50 to 60 other stocks at any other time.
I've been making a good profit on Enphase. We did really well on Poet. We're doing really well right now on RDW. Like there's a lot of other positions. We don't have to just focus on Tesla. But in order for me to get back into this position, I need to see the 33 fair value band. That's this indicator right here flip back to green.
If this can flip back to green, this means the trend is bullish once again. The bull cycle is back on the table and from there, I personally can play the upside. Now, I need you to understand that I am a systems-based trader. What I am trying to do here is not time the bottom or time the top. I'm trying to have my system, deploy my system, and trade my system.
My system is not going to be perfect. I'm not going to time the bottoms to perfection. I'm not going to time the tops to perfection. That's not what I'm here to do. So, at this point, Tesla's looking pretty good, but I need this band to turn green. I need the bull cycle to be long once again. In order for me to take a trade, this is what I need to see, right?
If the background here is not green, if the 33 is not green, if the monthly BX is not showing buying pressure, I'm just not going to touch it. And that's fine, right? That's fine for me. Now, if you want to get access to both of these indicators, the 33 fair value band and the monthly BX time frame indicator, the link to our bull cycle trading blueprint is down in the description.
It's completely free. It's one of our free courses. You have access to both indicators and a full course showing you how I tell if a stock is bullish or bearish within our framework, completely for free. No credit card, no You don't have to worry about it. It's my gift to give to you guys for saying thank you for all the support over the years.
As of now, this is really unusual. Would not surprise me if Tesla moves back to 460-480, but I personally cannot act until my criteria is met.
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