저자: TradersHelpingTraders진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 아직 강세 사이클로 판단하며 2~3% 추가 조정은 가능하지만 740달러 이탈 시 10% 조정 가능성이 커진다고 주장. 10년물 금리 급등은 우려 요인이나 즉각적 10% 조정을 의미하지는 않음. 강세 사이클(연 20~25% 상승 통상)과 계절성(9월 약세, 11~12월 강세), 거래량 프로파일 지지선(740~746달러)을 근거로 제시. 본인은 메가캡 펀드에 10~15% 현금을 보유하며 하락 시 매수 대기, 개별 종목으로 Meta·Tesla 등 롱 기회를 언급.
다듬은 글
For the last week or so, I've been talking about a possible S&P 500 correction of about 3-4%. We were trading right in the smart money sell zone, and in the last 5 days alone the market has dropped about 2%. Few people seemed to care until today when 10-year bonds started to rise sharply, and now many are expecting a potential 10% market correction.
We've seen people like Tom Lee talk about this before, and I won't completely dismiss such a scenario, but I will say that in my opinion there's nothing to worry about yet. In this video we will conduct a detailed analysis. We'll go into detail about why I think another 2-3% sell-off is possible on the horizon, where I would start to get really worried, and what would have to happen for us to see a further 10% drop in the S&P 500.
If you want to learn my trading strategy for free, the full description is in the description under our lesson on "smart money zones". It's completely free . This will teach you how to read the market structure, find the “smart money” zones we’re talking about today , and how I set take profits and stop losses.
It's completely free, it's my way of thanking you and giving you the opportunity to follow these videos . We'll start with the post I just wrote in X and then move on to the graphs. I promise, the first thing you need to understand about the S&P 500 right now is that we are still in a " bull" cycle.
So , bullish cycles usually last about 1 year. They typically provide a 20-25% increase in the S&P 500. The last bullish cycle for SPY began in April 2026, and we were only up about 6%. So I want you to understand: there is nothing right now to indicate that we are in for some kind of market crash. Another thing I want you to consider is that the macro structure on the weekly and daily charts remains bullish.
Nothing worries me until we settle down to $730-740. In the meantime, I believe the price will continue to fall, perhaps to $757 or $752. But let's start with this analysis first, and then we'll go into detail . So, I said here that the 10-year bond is rising rapidly, and you're obviously seeing that here.
Today we saw a sharp jump in 10- year bonds. This week we saw a slow rise in the 10- year, and over the last month there has been quite a significant movement in them. Many people are worried about this, and the reason is that when it is more profitable to invest money in Treasury bonds, it is usually not a good sign for the market as a whole.
This post says that 10- year bonds are rising rapidly, but that doesn't automatically mean that there will be a 10% correction next. Here are the levels that matter for the S&P 500 (SPY). We have already factored in a 2-4% pullback before the next upward movement. This was based on the " smart money" zones we talked about earlier.
I want you to understand: the macrostructure, i.e. the daily and weekly charts we just talked about , is still “bullish,” but the short-term internal structure is “bearish.” We start making lower highs and lower lows, and the price will continue to do so until we eventually break a higher high, which has not happened yet.
Currently, the price movement is in line with this plan. On the weekly chart, the strongest support we have is $740. So, if we zoom out to the weekly chart and look here, you'll notice that $740 is one of the strongest levels in our trading system. Why? Well, first of all, you'll see that we have a daily institutional buying zone between $745 and $740.
We have a “smart money” zone between $740 and $735. This means that if the price were to indeed rebalance on a short-term timeframe all the way to the bottom, the worst-case scenario would likely be a pullback to the “smart money” price, followed by a significant rebound from that level to an all-time high by the end of the year.
If you look at seasonality and history, this is usually what happens. September is usually a rather bad month for the market, but with the arrival of November and December, the situation becomes quite optimistic. Also fundamentally, you know, midterm elections are not very favorable for the market either.
So, all of this is consistent both historically and technically. Another thing to consider is this giant block of volume from, excuse me, $746 to $736. That's where the block of 2 billion shares is located. So, the THT volume profile looks at the last 150 weeks and shows us where buying and selling are concentrated.
These massive blocks are a huge support in the market. These thin zones that you can see, for example here from 752 to about 745, are usually a very rapid price vacuum. So, once again , the weekly timeframe coincides with the hourly, showing a continuation of the pullback, perhaps to 744–740, with a subsequent breakout.
So I want you to understand: if you just want the gist, this is my worst-case scenario prediction. I expect another 2–3% pullback before a significant increase. Where the situation becomes truly problematic is if the quotes break through the $740 mark. This is where my thesis completely changes, and this is where the potential for a 10% market correction can become quite real.
As you will notice, based on what we just talked about, these levels here are giant price vacuums. So, if 740 is broken, there will be a huge price vacuum between about $730 and $690. I also want you to pay attention to the fact that that is where the institutional buying zone is located on the larger, weekly timeframe .
So, if this level is broken, we could see a move to 690, 680, 670, 660, 650. This is where things start to get very, very risky. And I really think the price will eventually bounce back from there. But that's not something to worry about right now , because our goal— at least my goal and the work I've been doing for the last 11 years—is not to predict the future .
My job is to react. The market is still in a bullish cycle right now. It is currently showing a worst-case scenario of 2.5–3%, which would be a very, very healthy phenomenon. We've already seen a downward movement of 2.5–3% in the summer, from that high in June to that low in June. A 5% drop in 21 days, followed by a 10% move in 50 days.
So I want you to understand: continuing the rollback will not be the end of the world. We should only worry if the $740–$730 level is broken. If this structure starts to collapse, that's when we really, really have to worry. Now let's talk about what I actually do? The truth is, I don't do anything special.
I'm not playing for a bear market. I see no reason to buy put options during a bullish cycle. I'm not one to short the market. Right now, I just keep some cash in my mega-cap fund, and I do n't have any free cash in the small-cap fund that I run for my private community. All my capital is already invested.
But I currently hold about 10–15% cash in a mega-cap fund. The main reason is that if prices start to roll back further, I would like to use this capital for long positions. I want you to understand: it is very difficult for a trader and investor to continue to follow their strategy when the market behaves erratically.
Many people want to withdraw all their money from the market. They want to guess the perfect moment for the market. But I want you to understand: everything we're talking about right now could turn out to be wrong if the S&P 500 just breaks through these all-time highs. So I'm not here to predict, I'm just reacting to what's happening in the market.
The next thing you need to understand is that I trade based on a list of small- cap stocks. There are 47 names that meet the "smart money" criteria. There are 63 of them in the mega-cap fund that meet the "smart money" criteria. So I want you to understand that there is always something for me to trade.
And what's really interesting is that the last two days we were in the black while the market was falling. So, there are long-term setups right now that are moving against the S&P 500. I mean, for example, look at Meta. Meta is the asset I just closed. Over the past 20 days, Meta has risen 22%, while the S& P 500 has fallen 2% over the same period.
Tesla has risen by about 10 % over the past 20 days, while SPY is in the red. So there are many great long opportunities in the market , even if the market continues to pull back. I hope this video was helpful. Thank you all for your support. Check out our free courses. The link will be in the description under the video.
And if you ever want to trade with me and the members of my private academy, get access to me, all our seminars, our THT heatmap and web app, and all our private indicators, the link to our private academy will be in the description. This is the same link as the smart money zone, just click on the THT logo in the top left corner and then scroll down to the private trading academy.
You can start with 50% off your first month by simply entering smart money in the coupon section. Thank you all for your support. It really means a lot to me. See you next week.
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