저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 월봉 구조상 상승 추세가 남아 있으나 최근 스윙 저점 이탈로 단기 조정 가능성이 있으며, 386~400 저항 부근에서 비중 축소를 권함. SPCE는 상승 구조가 유효하고 190~200까지 갈 수 있으나 단기적으로 익절 구간. 팔란티어는 약세 구조가 상단 돌파로 전환 중이나 프리미엄 구간이라 $130~145 조정 시 매수 고려. SoFi는 $12.5~14.5 매수 구간을 기다리며 $20 돌파 전까지 진입 보류.
다듬은 글
In today's video, we'll look at four promotions that you've all been asking about. We will analyze Tesla as it still holds the structure. It continues to move upwards towards the $400 resistance level. We will look at SPCE because it bounced off our smart money zone late last month and is now showing rapid growth.
We will look at Palantir as the stock approaches a very strong resistance level. And we'll look at SoFi because I think we should remain patient and wait for another pullback to $14. As always, if you want to learn my trading strategy for free, learn how to find these “smart money” zones and institutional buy zones on your own, the link to our free training is in the description.
No credit cards, no nonsense. This is a complete course from A to Z. So, let's start with Tesla. Looking at Tesla now, you'll see that everything we've talked about is coming true perfectly so far . If we look at the monthly timeframe, we see that the structure still remains “bullish ”. From 2022 to 2023, the price declined and is now forming higher highs and higher lows.
What usually happens? The price will continue to move back to higher lows and then a breakout will occur. So I still believe that over the next 18 months we will reach the $550 to $600 mark. If you recall, just a few months ago, after the report, we saw a sharp sell-off in Tesla shares. I bought the shares for about $310.
Since then, the price initially rose by more than 26%, and I booked my profit. Since then, we have been monitoring the hourly structure of the market. And, as you can see, the market structure has been continuing to form higher highs and higher lows for several months now. This means that every time the price has rolled back into the “smart money” zone over the past few months, it has been a great buying opportunity.
You will see that every time after the price pullback we got a breakout. Here we have a movement of 7%. Here we have about 9% movement. And just recently we had another such move of about 9%, and then, most recently, about 6.5% up. As we will see later , SpaceX demonstrated much the same thing. Every time the price rolled back into the “smart money” zone, it was a reason to buy.
Currently, Tesla technically still maintains a market structure on the daily timeframe. But last week, I didn't like what you see here, highlighted in red, this liquidity fee. I don't like this because, yes, the price did recover quickly above the $350 level, but if you remain objective, you will notice that for the first time since the internal structure transitioned to a " bullish" trend, we broke the swing low.
Usually in such cases, the price breaks through the swing low, then bounces off this level, stops making higher lows, and starts forming lower highs. After that, the price starts to update lower lows. Now the zone where we can see potential rejection is exactly where we are right now. If we extend the Fibonacci from the swing high of 386.83 to the swing low of 345.95, we see a “smart money” bearish zone between $380 and around $378 .
I want you to understand: I am not opening a deal based on this information. I'm just explaining what the model usually shows, based on all the data I've collected. Typically, about 70% of the time the price deviates here and turns down to form a lower high. So if I were buying on a short-term dip and focusing on the short- term, I would personally reduce some of my exposure to the upside.
Another point is that if we switch to the daily chart, we will soon hit this serious resistance level. We already talked about why I thought the price was likely to bounce. You can watch my videos from July where I said the price would bottom out, jump to $400-$410 at best , and then the sell-off would begin.
And so far, this scenario is coming true. So the question I would ask those who are still in a position (and I am not at the moment) is : what is my risk to reward ratio? What is my potential profit compared to the risk I have to take on this trade? Is n't that right? If we had traded Tesla over the last few months, you would have already been able to get 6% movement, 18% movement, here another 8% movement, and now about 5%.
Yes, there is now a possibility that the price will make a price gap and rise another 6%. But is it really worth the risk? Isn't that right ? In my personal opinion, no, and that is why I have reduced my holdings of Tesla shares for now. Not because I don't believe in further growth to 400-408, but because the risk simply doesn't justify the reward.
So, tomorrow and through the end of this week, the level I will be watching is $386. If the price can rise above this local maximum, then the possibility of further movement to $400-405 remains relevant. But even then, I think we will see a pullback in the macro perspective, meaning over a longer time frame, probably within the next few weeks.
I hope I'm wrong, as I have no open position here, and I know many of you are long-term investors, but until this weekly chart stops making lower highs and lows, I expect it to continue to do so. SPCE is a promotion we've been talking about for some time. If you go back and look at my account in X, you will see that back on August 4th I was bullish on this stock, identifying the bottom at $110.
Since then, the stock has risen from $110 to around $172, representing about 60% of the 60- day move. Now I want to look at a specific short-term market structure that we have been talking about for a long time. I don't know if you know this, but you can just go to my X and search for any promotion on my profile to see every time I mentioned it.
And if you click on " recent" and scroll through each of my posts, you'll see that every time the price rolls back into the "smart money" zone, I've posted a setup. And since then we've had three breakdowns, right? We had the first pullback after that reversal, so we initially identified that reversal right here.
I sold...wait, I sold a little early, so I sold around that range, right? Then we pointed to this pullback into the " smart money" zone back in August, uh, what number is that? 20th? Right here, right? Straight back into this zone. The price rose by about 13%. We observed a pullback here on September 15th.
The price increased by about 10 %, and recently there was a pullback on September 26, which we also reported. Since the price rebounded on September 26, the stock has risen 17%. I will say this: while I still think that over the next few months the price could continue to move up to 190 or even 200 before we see a rejection on the higher timeframe, on the lower timeframe the price is trading near my take profit level.
So when I plan to exit a position, I usually try to sell on the rise, buy on the pullback, sell on the rise, buy on the pullback, sell on the rise, and buy on the pullback again. So, can the price go into a parabolic rise and continue the movement? Yes, but in the long run, locking in some profit, especially when we start a breakout, is usually a pretty good sign.
And, you know, if we could catch all of these moves, not only would we be able to get, well, 28 , 38, 40, 50, you know, almost 70% of the profit, but we would also avoid some of the most sluggish periods in this asset. So, looking at SpaceX, I still think we'll continue to see at best another 11-15% upside over the next few months, but we're moving into premium pricing territory not only on the shorter but also the longer timeframe.
Moving on to Palantir, this is something that many of you have been asking me about over the past few months. Back in December 2025, we said that Palantir was entering a redistribution phase or bear cycle. The reason for this was very simple: the structure was breaking down on the lower timeframe, and more importantly, the monthly BX trend indicator was turning red.
I mean, even going back to June, we were saying that this was probably a rejection and the price would continue to fall. Since then, the price has actually fallen by about 40% in 175 days. And we played this situation out, just by staying out of the way , perfectly. Now my initial expectation was that the price would continue to move down, forming lower highs and lower lows all the way to the "smart money " price level.
So, I thought that the bounce that we saw here after the earnings report would lead to a pullback back to the lows around 100. And then we would get a breakout. That has n't happened yet, has it? We actually leveled up, and I explain that in my courses, right? Which are completely free , but if you look at this swing high point, the price has broken through this high level.
This is considered a change in structure. Typically, when a structure changes, the following happens: the price breaks through the level, then bounces back, regroups to form a higher low, and finally breaks up. If you look at Palantir now, I'm not necessarily saying there's anything inherently bearish about it, you know?
We are in a new phase of testing the bull cycle. The BX trend is showing green, but my view on Palantir is simple: yes, we can see continued upside, perhaps 15–20%, in the next couple of months. But for me to personally become a buyer, I need to buy at a discount, and here I simply don't do that. If I wanted to buy Palantir , I would at least need to see the price return to the $145-$130 range, because the structure has shifted up in the short term, but we are still trading at a premium.
Another thing to consider: we are trading in the “ smart money” bearish zone. So if the price is going to pull back, it will happen right here. And if you noticed, we had a lot of difficulties, right? I've been talking about this since August 28th, and in the last 38 days, Palantir hasn't really shown anything.
That's why I don't play the bear market. That's why I'm not going against Palantir, but as I said, nothing here indicates that I should enter into a deal . The most important thing I try to explain to my students is to share the idea that you can make money by buying an asset at a premium during a bull cycle, because it's possible, right?
Of course, you can make money by buying an asset at a premium in a bull market. But we want to buy a strong asset in a bull market at a discount, you know? I would rather buy Palantir here for the upside than buy here and then try to sell here. Yes, you can make money when the market moves parabolically, but if the market falls, if Palantir rolls back here, I'll find myself with these stocks bought at a huge overpayment, and I don't want that.
So if I look at Palantir, I would say, "Yeah, the price could continue to go up over the next few months, but I'm just not going to touch it because it's not trading at enough of a discount." It is trading in a zone of significant potential resistance. And if the price were to pull back 25-30%, I would consider a potential entry, but for now Palantir is something I'm avoiding, remaining patient.
Sometimes I get perfect entry points in the “ smart money zone”. This one was, you know, 10% away. Sometimes the market turns around earlier. I can't be perfect. I'm not trying to be perfect, and we don't have to be perfect. Now, looking at SoFi, you can see that our patience with this company has paid off, right?
Sometimes it's all about finding the perfect entry point. Sometimes it's just about being patient, right? Going back to August, we said we would stay away. It did n't look like we were going to go up. Going back even further, to July, we said we would wait. It didn't look like we were going to go up.
When we returned here, before April, we said we would wait. It didn't look like the price was going to move anywhere. So, we have n't really looked at SoFi at all since April, even though it has been trying to bounce back. And even better, we actually predicted the SoFi peak earlier this year when the BX trend turned red, right?
So, on February 22 of this year, we said that the bullish cycle was over. The lunar BX was red. You can see it right here. And from that point on, the market, I mean, SoFi fell 38% in 259 days. So our patience is really paying off very well. And if the price rolls back to the " smart money zone, " I would happily enter the position.
Now, the reason I continue to stay away is basically twofold. First, if we look at this macro structure of the " smart money zone, " you have a clear swing low at 8.60 and a clear swing high at 32.73. This means that historically my "smart money zone" or my buying area would be somewhere around 14...well, let's call it $14.50 to $12.50, right?
If I can enter somewhere in this area, my annual profit will be $32, which is 136% growth, and the stop loss is at around $9.50, which means 30-35% loss. That's a very, very healthy risk-to-reward ratio. These are the kind of asymmetric deals I'm looking for. The second main reason why I haven't opened a position yet is that the internal structure on the smaller timeframes is not " bullish", right?
We've been talking about this for some time. The price has failed to rise above $20. Whenever it bounces, it forms flat highs rather than higher highs. So in my last analysis I said the price should break the $20 mark, right? And I pointed out that if we don't cross $ 20, we simply won't open a position.
Until we break $20 , I expect a price pullback. So, is there a chance we will bounce back sooner? Yes? Because we have a potential lower or higher minimum? Yes. True? There's a chance we'll bounce back here. But personally, I'm focused on many other deals. I'd better wait aside. I prefer patience. If the price continues to fall by another 15-20%.
I would happily get in , and I truly believe that within the next 18 months the price will reach historic highs. So I want you to understand: I am optimistic about the long term . I am optimistic about the next 2 years. But I need a good price if I'm going to open this deal.
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