저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 최근 할인 구간(약 270~280달러)으로 내려와 장기 롱 포지션을 재개했다는 내용. 2024년 돌파 이후 고점 대비 조정이 진행 중이며, 추가로 15~20% 하락 가능성(265~270달러)을 언급하나 단기 반등보다는 추가 하락을 예상. 12개월 내 500달러, 최악의 경우 540달러 회복을 전망. 진입 시점별 백테스트 결과 장기 수익성은 차이가 없다고 주장. 현금담보 풋옵션 매도 전략을 추천.
다듬은 글
So, I'd like to quickly stop in here and briefly talk about my position on Tesla. As you know, we have not traded Tesla shares for the past few months. I didn't focus on stocks, mainly because, first, we weren't in a bull cycle, and second, the price hadn't retraced back to a large enough discount for me to actually open a position.
Now, as of last week, with this big profit sale , the price has finally moved back into my discount range, which means I can start taking a long position on Tesla again. In this video, I want to talk about the number one reason I'm bullish . I think most of you probably already understand this. I want to talk, first of all, about why I think the stock could still continue to trade around $270-$280.
And, more importantly, why I came in now and not then. We'll also talk about cash- backed puts , because in my opinion, cash- backed puts are one of the best strategies you can have on something like Tesla, especially right now. And we'll look at the market structure of Tesla and talk about when I started really trading it, especially publicly, back in 2025, which is probably when most of you found me.
And before we get to that, if you want to learn how to recognize smart money zones, which is what we'll talk about in today's video , or how to tell if a stock is in a bullish pattern, both of these courses are completely free, and these indicators are in the description. Both together will essentially teach you the complete anatomy of the market cycle.
Now let's look at Tesla first. I'm on a weekly schedule and I'm completely remote. You'll see that, essentially, up until May 2022, we had a huge downtrend in Tesla. We also had a higher low forming here, and it was turning into a giant wedge in the market. And that's when I first started playing Tesla.
If I were to include all my drawings, it would essentially show you the market structure and the structure of Tesla. If we take this trend line , as we said before, and connect it to all these lower highs, then this is where we will have the top of the wedge. If we mark this from the bottom point of all these levels, it will be the bottom point of the wedge.
Now, I'm not just going to tell you, "Oh, I expected a breakthrough," hoping you'll believe me. If we even go back to July 2, 2024, I posted a video that looked at this particular Tesla setup. It gained over 300,000 views and broke through to that $400 resistance level we were talking about. Why? The same reason I just explained to you.
We had a huge squeeze in the market. We had tremendous buyer pressure building up on the monthly BX, and that usually leads to a multi-month expansion. And so this huge breakthrough in 2024 was the first phase of Tesla's growth where we really played to the upside. Basically, from June 2024 until this rally.
Now, when you consider any type of stock, you need to remember that market structure and price dynamics usually dictate the market as a whole. When we look at what I teach in this course about smart money zones, price typically makes a few breakouts in a bull market, then a pullback to a higher low, then a further breakout, then a pullback, and this will continue until eventually price breaks out.
What institutions and what I strive to do is just use a lot of patience. I tend to buy on pullbacks and sell on breakouts. Am I going to do it perfectly every time? Of course not, but ultimately, if you are someone who simply buys at discounts and sells at premiums, you will do very, very well in the long run.
So, that brings us back to where we were in March 2025. Tesla, after that massive breakthrough, must be cooling down, right? There are times when stocks simply follow a parabolic path, like AMD's, when cooling isn't happening. I think AMD is entering a cooling phase, but in most cases the price reaches a local maximum , the price redistributes back.
You have to understand that these huge institutional investors have enough money not to move the market on their own, but the collective aspect, you know, of all of them usually stepping in with discounts. You wouldn't have an institution that would normally buy Tesla, you know, at historical highs.
In most cases, they accumulate discounts, they sell at highs. So, after this level, we get a bounce off this smart money zone and then we get another 120% move over about 259 days. This is where my, you know, forecast was a little messed up. Hmm, I thought we were going to continue this movement, this move to a higher high.
Remember what we talked about earlier? Usually the price doesn't just return to an even high. Usually the price reaches a higher maximum. And in this case, that didn't happen. The price actually reached an even maximum. So I expected the price to reach 58,600. That didn't happen. Now we are back to an equal or higher minimum again.
And you can see that the price is coming right back into the institutional buying zone. And I ultimately think that in the worst case scenario, the price could drop another 15-20%, to around $265-270. So looking at it overall, I'm optimistic about Tesla . Not within the next month or two. I think the price will probably continue to drop over the next month or so.
Hmm, I think there's a very good chance that this will continue. But if you look at Tesla stock over the next 8, 10, 12 months, I think we're probably going to get back to 500, if not 540. Like last time, the price held in that zone for a while. The price didn't just bottom out and fully recover. And I expect something similar to happen where we have, you know, a few dips to 280, maybe a few dips to 260, maybe 262, and then maybe we completely bottom out in September, October, and then probably by May of next year, April of next year we'll be back to about $500.
With that in mind, I think this will make a lot of people ask the question: If I think Tesla will continue to sell to 280, 260, then why should I take that position today? And this has two aspects. First, I don't want to miss a potential 60-70% move up versus an 8% move down. First, from a mathematical point of view, it doesn't make sense.
Secondly, from an ego perspective, I don't need to come here every day and be right. I'm not here to reach every bottom. I'm not here to achieve every maximum. I can probably do it a few times, but doing it consistently in the long run just won't work. Second, and this is what I think is most important, is that in all my tests, it doesn't really make a difference when you get inside, right?
Either the top or the bottom. So, I can't test the smart money zones because they're hand-drawn , but by testing the fair value range that we trade within, we've essentially run three types of tests on the entire stock market. An entrance at the top of this lane, an entrance in the middle of the lane, and an entrance at the bottom of the lane.
Interestingly, the data shows that in the long term, rather than over the course of the next deal, nothing changes. If you enter at the top of the band, your win rate is around 70% with an average win of 24% and an average loss of 22%. So, this means that you have a really high win rate, but your risk-to-reward ratio is actually one to one.
This is still a very profitable trading strategy, and it's really good because you win consistently. If you enter the middle lane, where Tesla is now, if I were to raise that lane, you would notice that the win rate drops from 70% to 60%. However, the average win is increasing, the average loss is falling.
If we enter the lower part of the band, the win rate drops to 50%. The average win increases even more, the average loss falls even more . And now here's what's interesting. As the price continues to fall, the win rate drops, but your risk drops both down and up, which is exactly what we want. But here's what's interesting.
In the long run, nothing changes. If you look at the actual profit ratio of the position, which is what matters most, the profit ratio is 2.6 at the top of the range, 2.6 at the bottom of the range, and 2.6 at the bottom of the range. So, this means that the difference between the input from the top, middle, and bottom is zero.
In the long run, it's no different. In the short term, yes, it's very different, but in the long term, it's not really different at all. And you'll notice that the CAGR, if you work at the fund level, taking each individual position, which I usually do, is about 20.4% . So it doesn't change at all .
That's why I decided to get into Tesla right now, because yes, there's a chance it will continue to sell, but in the long run it won't necessarily matter. In conclusion, the last thing I want to say is that I think one of the best solutions if you have more capital, and of course, all of this is not financial advice, is to sell cash-backed put options .
Why? Well, we know that all three ranges, the upper, middle, and lower, essentially lead you to the same area in the long run. However, if the price is expected to continue to sell, we could sell cash-backed put options at any of these levels, and the goal would be to first hope that Tesla will sell the stock.
Because if Tesla sells the shares, we will receive the shares at the strike price at which they were sold. So, we're literally going to be paid a premium for that time, and we're going to get the shares at an even bigger discount, which to me is like a chef's kiss, the best thing in the world. Then, if the worst-case scenario happens, which is that Tesla stock now rebounds really fast , at least you'll get paid something and you can keep rolling, as well as sell cash- backed put options lower and lower.
In the end, I hope this video helped. As I said, the link to the "smart money and market structure" course is free at the bottom of the description, and the " bull cycle plan", "33 fair value ranges" and " monthly BX indicators" courses and the course itself are also in the description. I hope this video helped, and see you next time.
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