저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 실적 이후 AI 랠리 지속과 미국 펀더멘털 건전성을 강조. 소비자는 K자형 양극화이나 SpaceX·OpenAI IPO에 따른 자산효과가 연말 소비 부양 요인. 다만 연내 중간선거 계절성, 석유제품 재고 부족, IPO 물량·락업 해제 등으로 Mag7·소프트웨어 외 종목에서 약세장 가능성을 제기. 반도체는 아직 버블 아니나 일부 밸류에이션 부담 언급.
다듬은 글
Now that Nvidia earnings are out of the way, is the AI trade about to take its next leg higher? Let's ask Tom Lee. He's Fundstrat's head of research. Welcome back. So, so how do you assess this now? We've we've cleared the way, right? All the AI stuff's now out of the way. We're looking at yields, we're looking at oil, we're looking at the Middle East, but how do you feel about this market when you just heard Chris Harvey at the top of our show saying we're going to have an everything rally that's going to take us past 8,000 by the end of the year.
Yeah, Scott. Um yeah, I I think the market is pretty healthy. Um it showed resilience in the face of higher oil, higher yields. But I also think the US is pretty unique because we do have a structural driver for the economy, which is not only is the US the producer of AI, but we are also uh relatively energy independent, and that's been exposed by this war.
And the consumer's in pretty good shape. So, I mean I I I think there is a pretty good runway. So, I'd agree with the idea that stocks, compared to the start of this year, have more upside into year end. We've got a few things we have to work through as we get later through the year, but I think for now the fundamentals are healthy and that's supported by earnings.
I don't know I don't know what shape the consumer's in, to be honest with you. I mean, I understand the K-shaped economy, obviously. Top of the K is better than the bottom of the K in terms of their durability to keep spending. But you listen to Walmart, which was pretty cautious, and you're like, what is the real state of the consumer?
And if oil prices remain elevated for too long, is that the thing that wrecks the story? Uh Scott, yeah, it is in a in a way it is K-shaped because if I had to say, "Okay, what are the things that are sort of balance and things moving the consumer?" Of course, we know that it's higher gasoline, higher food, and of course, there's going to be a a shortage of some petroleum products.
But on the other end of that spectrum is you know, the wealth that's going to be created by the IPO of SpaceX, OpenAI, etc. I mean, that's several trillion dollars worth. And as we know, there's like a marginal propensity to consume from the wealth effect. So, I think the consumer is getting a tailwind later this year, but a lot of it is if for those who own equity.
I mean, a tailwind from the from owning the IPOs? Well, the it's actually the in private investors. As we know, SpaceX was probably seeded at, you know, 50 million dollars. It probably raised, you know, tens of billions over the last uh decade. But now it's going to have a a net worth valuation of around 1.7 trillion.
So, that that's actually now going to be monetized uh for the LPs of the funds that invested in SpaceX. So, there you know, several trillion dollars is is quite a lot of stimulus to the economy. Wow, okay. Um Hampton's real estate market, watch out. Uh AI trade, how how do you feel about it after Nvidia?
Uh I mean, a company with the the size of revenues Nvidia growing at cent. Um I think it shows that there is still uh you know, unrelenting demand for for the product Nvidia sells. And then we know that those who are starting to use AI are actually noticing a gain of function on productivity. You know, Ken Griffin really stated it well when he says he he could see this replacing a lot of analysts.
So, to me, I think not only are the users of AI benefiting, but there's still a shortage of those who are supplying the equipment. But aren't you still calling for a pullback in stocks and something meaningful? Like the one we had already didn't really qualify, if you will, under what you were thinking could happen, right?
That's right, Scott. I think we had like what Ed Yardeni would call a rolling bear market in things like Mag 7. And of course, last year in energy, but in software, etc. But I think later this year the market is going to confront a few things. You know, one of course is just your typical midterm seasonality, you know, the uncertainty into that.
The second is that there is a a a day of reckoning coming because the inventory of petroleum products is short and not being alleviated anytime soon. And the third is uh we probably have a some concerns later as the as these IPOs come, SpaceX, OpenAI, etc. that there's a lockup expiration later. So I I think that's a supply overhang.
So I think that dynamic comes to play later this year, but in the meantime I think investors are focusing on AI fundamentals and you know, there's a real shortage and and stocks that are working are the ones that are selling something that's scarce. Tom, I I want to make sure I heard you right. Are you calling for a rolling bear market in Mag 7 names cuz is that what you're looking for?
You you look for these stocks to become weaker at some point and dramatically so at some point this year? Is that Is that what I heard you say? Uh No, to clarify, I think that I think we've already had a bear market in Mag 7 and software. I think there is going to be a bear market in other stocks later this year, yes.
Um but I think it's going to spare the Mag 7 and and software, so it's going to be names that either got lofty or are going to be affected by the fact that there is a lot of supply of new stock later this year or the companies that are going to get hit by this shortage in petroleum products. So I think there's reasons that we could have headwinds later this year.
Are you talking about like semiconductor stocks? Yeah, semis may become a bubble. They're They to me they don't seem like a bubble yet. You know, when Nvidia's trading at 19 times earnings, I think it's still a good risk reward. Um but I think that there are parts of that ecosystem that have become quite expensive.
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