Market bears still in hibernation mode after Nvidia earnings, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

요약 보기

Dan Ives는 IBM이 양자컴퓨팅과 AI 투자로 큰 상승여력이 있다고 주장하며, 양자는 AI의 파생 수혜로 AI 인프라 투자 사이클(약 4조달러 규모, 현재 15~20% 진행)이 계속된다고 봄. 엔비디아 실적이 수요 가속을 보여주며 엔비디아 시총 6~7조달러 도달 및 하이퍼스케일러·기술주 상승을 전망. 곰(bear)들이 여전히 동면 상태라고 평가. 나스닥 3만 포인트 도달 가능성 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Sleeping giant sleeps no more. Joining us now, a giant in his own right, Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. Must get exhausting being right all the time. How do you handle it? Look, I I mean, but to your point, I think it's it's trying to see around corners in this market.

02. Like when you look at like IBM or quantum, I mean, we talked about that coming to Okay, what what did you I'm being nice, but I'm also trying to make a serious point. What did you see with IBM that others may have missed? Yeah. Because we never talk about the quantum story. I think also it's it's Arvind in terms of the CEO.

03. I think it's my view that he is someone that's way under appreciated by investors in terms of his ability, no different than Nadella and others or Jensen to see where the technology is heading. The bet on quantum, the bet on AI, I mean, I really view this like a transformation that's happening in our market IBM.

04. And I think when you look at this news, this is not the end. It's just like Intel, right? Like this is just the start of these turnarounds. And I think IBM continues to be one that has massive upside. We've all been focusing on the AI race, but I it's like I don't have the bandwidth to focus on the quantum race also.

05. Is the quantum race the same as the AI race? Does it leap ahead of the AI race? Because our guest last hour, when I asked him, he's CEO of D-Wave to explain what quantum does, he said, for example, it helps them find and test new materials. That sounds to me like something that we would have said that AI was going to be working on.

06. So, I'm curious if quantum cannibalizes the TAM for AI or how would you describe its position? Yeah, and that was a great interview. I think what he had said, what it does, it really multiplies it. Because I view the AI revolution, the opportunity here, it's $4 trillion being spent in the next 3 to 4 years.

07. We're only 15 20% through that. Quantum is really what I view as a derivative play on AI. So, when you look at what's happening here in terms of government So, do we need AI for quantum, or do we need quantum to to push forward on AI? I think quantum ultimately will be the next level that's going to push forward in AI.

08. And I think that it speaks to our view whether it's on power, on infrastructure, on quantum. This arms race happening between US and China, you need to see from the White House. They're going to continue to make stakes. No different than Intel where they've done raw materials. Quantum was going to be the next thing.

09. And I think I just think where IBM is positioned so well on this front. But to follow up on what Kelly's saying and we won't get into the energy if quantum works the energy demand story changes dramatically. We'll save that for a different day. Where are we in quantum? Is it still a fantasy? Are computers running?

10. Where's the What's the Dan Ives view on where we stand? You always like to say what inning we're in. Sure. So if if it's inning, we're maybe in the dugout in warm-ups getting ready for the first inning, right? In other words, like they cuz right now Game hasn't started. Game hasn't started. If you look at the wild of the projects that's going on in quantum, they haven't really hit scale.

11. If you look at IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti, what they're doing, phenomenal technologies. Now slowly they're going to continue to build that out. But if it works though, are you convinced this is all going to work? Look, I believe that like could there be bumps in the road? Yeah, but I believe over the coming years like this is a core technology that all in our opinion it also plays into the fourth industrial revolution.

12. Cuz it's not just about Godfather of AI, Jensen. It's about you have to continue to think about on infrastructure, on software, on quantum, on power. And I think that it's our view, that's how we're going to get to Nasdaq 30,000. It's just going to be these other derivative plays. IonQ up 11%. Some of these names are up 20, 30% today.

13. Not to go on a complete tangent, but Brent, it it should energy investors be excited by or or nervous about Nervous. Nervous. So quantum will use the idea is that and Dan, correct me if I'm wrong, it will use consume less power to do greater computational effect. So the compute, all the horsepower, the energy used to power all the data centers will narrow out because these computers, if they work, will do more with less.

14. Is that a fair statement? fair statement. I've never been interviewed by Kelly Evans before, so I'm a little nervous. So, it's a fair statement. I'm a little nervous. And and with that awesome title combined with It's cuz I matched your pants. That's the only reason you like the tie. But the one thing I say right, but it's our it's our view that like right now power infrastructure, it's essentially going to be really a super cycle that's going on in terms of infrastructure, natural gas power because AI, because of fueling the data centers.

15. So, quantum's on the other side of that, but for now, it's going to be I mean, this is really a golden age on the energy infrastructure side that's AI driven. So, the the people with all this compute and all these data centers and the energy, they don't have to worry about when they see the rise of these quantum players?

16. Because right now it's still like less than what, 4% of companies have gone down the AI path. Data centers are still getting built relative to where this is all going. don't mean to belabor the point completely. I While you're do want to quickly ask you about Nvidia and and what was said last night.

17. Did we clear the bar for the next inning, I guess, if you wanted to put it that way. Look, yeah. I think when when the godfather of AI speaks, everyone listens. And I think what Jensen's talk about is showing like demand's accelerating. And this doesn't even include China. Doesn't even include physical AI.

18. It goes to our view. We talked about 6 trillion for Nvidia's market cap and maybe ultimately 7 trillion as this is going to play out. It's also bullish for hyperscalers and it's bullish for the rest of the tech trade in terms of where this is all going. And that's why I just think like the bears continue being hibernation mood and this sends them further in with what we heard from Nvidia.