저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
디왈리 특집 대담으로, 진행자 CNBC-Awaaz와 Motilal Oswal 그룹 회장 Raamdeo Agrawal이 출연했다. 작년 디왈리 이후 니프티는 12% 이상 마이너스 수익을 기록했으며, 서아시아 위기·유가·관세·AI·루피 약세가 시장 심리를 짓눌렀다는 진단이다. [시장 현황 및 진단] 출연자는 현재 시장을 2020년 이후 '비정상적 10년' 호황 뒤의 약세장으로 본다. 과거 40~45년 동안 이런 베어마켓이 네 차례 있었다고 언급하며, 좋은 뉴스에도 주가가 빠지는 자본항복(capitulation) 국면과 MTF 매도가 나타나고 있어 베어마켓 하단을 향하는 중일 수 있다고 말했다. 다만 언제 바닥인지는 아무도 모른다고 선을 그었다. [밸류에이션 및 이익] 지수 PER은 현재 약 18배로 역사적 저점 수준에 가깝다고 봤으나 바닥이 확정됐다고 단정하지는 않았다. 대형주 밸류에이션은 편안하다고 평가했고, 중소형주는 이익 성장 때문에 여전히 높은 수준이라고 했다. 이익 측면에서는 이번 분기 기업이익이 크게 늘고 올해 니프티 EPS 약 1,250, 내년 약 1,450이 전망된다고 언급했다. [장기 전망] 인도 명목 GDP는 연 10~11% 성장하며 기업이익과 지수는 연 12~13% 수준으로 복리 성장할 것이라는 장기 낙관론을 유지했다. 5~15년 보유 시 수익이 난다는 입장이다. [수급 및 정책] SIP 자금은 구조적으로 강하며 투자자 수가 4천만에서 2억 5천만 명으로 늘었다고 강조했다. 외국인(FII) 이탈과 프로모터 매도, 대규모 IPO 물량이 하방 압력이다. 루피 약세와 자본수지 악화는 우려 요인으로 꼽았으며, 정책당국이 대응할 것으로 기대했다. 외국인 투자 유치를 위해 LTCG·STT 등 세제 개선과 외국인 진입 절차 간소화가 필요하다고 주장했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기 변동성은 계속되겠지만 대형주 중심 분할 매수와 장기 보유가 유효하다는 입장이다. 대형 금융주 비중을 늘리는 방향에 우호적이었다. 구체적 가격 목표나 개별 종목 매수 추천은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Diwali is not just a festival of lighting diyas but a festival of new hopes and new resolutions. It is a festival of tearing apart the darkness and drawing a new line of light. When a lamp is lit in every corner of the house, a belief arises in the mind that the coming tomorrow will be better. Investors are also hoping that this Diwali the darkness in their portfolio will go away.
The last one year has been very difficult. Challenges like West Asia crisis, crude oil, tariff, AI, rupee broke the market morale . The FI is also sulking. The situation is such that from last Diwali to this Diwali, Nifty has given negative returns of more than 12%. In such a situation, every investor is asking when will this eclipse of the market go away?
How will the lamp of growth be lit and which is the sector that will brighten the portfolio? To bring a new ray of hope in this depressing environment, the country's renowned investor guru, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Group, Ramdev Agarwal Sir is joining us today. Ramdev Sir, thank you so much for taking out time for CNBC Awas and Ramdev Sir, we have met many times, he is known on this platform for his investing framework, for his excellent wealth creation study and Ramdev Sir is known for always believing in India's long term compounding story.
Ramdev Sir, first of all, festive greetings to you and best wishes for Diwali from our entire team. I wish you, your team and all your viewers a very Happy Diwali and may the coming year, as you said, be full of hope. And generally we always look at Diwali with hopeful eyes. So this year also it seems that next Diwali will be very big and we keep raising these hopes in people's minds because what happens?
See, investing is a long term process. Isn't it ? So good predictability of the short term is very difficult. But now the entire market environment is such that only a few people see it for 6 months from Diwali to Diwali, throughout the year. So it is very important that that hope remains because I know that money is made in 5, 10, 15 years.
There is no doubt in that. Meaning there is not even an iota of doubt. But the next 6 months will make money in a year. Yes, it will not work. Portfolio So when you see the darkness the most, that is when the biggest light appears. This is true. Hopes should never end, especially regarding stock market investing.
But Ramdev Sir, when I was introducing you, I had said that you should always believe in the long term compounding story of India. Did this offer shake your beliefs a bit? No, it is absolutely perfect. C, look at this, your ah, for the whole of India, the nominal GDP here, from where the vehicle starts, it keeps coming at 10-11% nominal.
There could be 12 on top and nine on the bottom. But you can calculate the number of 10-11% for 20, 25, 30 years. It keeps coming around 10 11 12%. Nominal GDP and corporate profits fluctuate slightly. But corporate profits on the whole are increasing. Worldwide, corporate profits are increasing slightly.
So what happens because of that? Your corporate profit increases by 12-13% and the index increases by that much. The P multiple is around 18-19. And so this is a 12-13% market. It doubles every six years. But those anomalies keep coming. Yes, very much, I mean some people are not 12 or 13 years old.
So, we saw what we call an extraordinary decade. Ramdev Sir 10 years together positive returns from 2016 to 2025. Now finally that matter is a little shaky. So how do you see the risk-reward equation at this time? Yes, they say, we are priced to perfection or do you still see scope for falling or have we fallen more than necessary, sir.
No, I have not fallen more than necessary. Yes. Some excesses were also committed. What happens? Earnings had slowed down and prices were very high. So ah what is the biggest revolution that has happened in domestic flow? The change that came in the market after 2020, the entire country is coming through SIP, which means 30 lakh investors are still coming every month.
So the number of investors which has increased from 40 million to 250 million and is still increasing is the biggest change in the market and due to the inflow of the same money, the valuation has also increased from 18 to 24 p. We and the FI felt that due to the same valuation, we should sell from here because other markets are more attractive than this.
Ok? Now what happened after that is that when your valuation is attractive then the promoters also have to sell. Now we are selling FI as well as promoter. So due to this reason, now the market has reached such a level where historically this is the lowest price. The lowest multiple is 18. Isn't it ?
Our market is moving around 18. Right now I am talking about TDTM. The next one or two years may be of 15 or 16 years also. So we are closer to the bottom right now, nobody can say that this is the bottom. Bottoms and tops are made for fools and liars and I don't want to be either of the classes. Okay so [nasal sound] so clearly we are so what it is it will test a little more patience.
You got one-sided returns from 2020 to 24 after Covid, that is, you got very high returns and from 24 till now [sound of clearing throat] particularly for the last one year, for the first time it seems like there is an atmosphere of recession. Look, in my 40-45 years, this has happened four times. Such an environment when the market falls even on good news means stocks fall.
That is a proper bear market. So we are into a bear market. So, I would say that the fuzz is when capitulation is happening like this, MTF selling is coming like this. You said that we have seen the extreme face of the bear market very selectively, so we may be in that bear market and heading towards the lower ebb of that bear market.
Now it is difficult to say when it will stop. Yes, it is the same thing that no one knows whether this could happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, what will be the trigger, whether it will be an Iran trigger, an oil price trigger, or because of the security tax that we are talking about, long term capital gains tax, or because of corporate earnings.
Because look, corporate earnings are also expected to increase by a significant 202% in this quarter. So, look, combining all this, your lower valuation creates lower valuation in itself, that is, as they say, brother, ah In one sense, they come out from inside the earth and are above it in another sense.
Cities also come from the sky. So the valuations that India is getting now, the valuations that it is getting now, are comfortable. I can say that. I think it is quite comfortable. Broad means it is definitely comfortable at the index level. But what is it? Index representative of large caps. Yes. Isn't it ?
So like you have HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, you have Reliance. All this became TCS, Infosys. So all these tech bucks, industrials, big industrials, automotive companies, all these come in your index, but the mid and small ones are in a different run in themselves, their levels are quite high because the earnings growth is a little more on that side, so the market is not like that the entire market has reached 18 PE, okay, so even now corrections are happening at many places, yes, that corrective fuzz is going on and because of that, see, the shower of your IPO is not decreasing, that means promoter selling, at this level also such an opportunity will come when the IPO market will cool down considerably.
Meaning you cannot have IPOs. Till now, I mean we have had the celebration of IPOs, the biggest and the best IPOs happen till tomorrow, so now such an opportunity will come when the market will become so calm that no one will be interested in the IPO because if that fizz is still left to come, then it is possible that the index may remain here but that fizz will come when the IPO will not be, it will be hated by the people, so all these signals of the market bottoming out will happen and one day in the morning it was known that the war is over, oil prices crash, you know, all this will happen, see, 12 months ago the oil price was $, today it is $115, $120, so I don't know what will happen after a year, if by chance it is $ after a year also, then the index will remain different, I can buy good things at good valuations, rest let's see how the global dynamics play out, investing is more, see, till 2000 we never worried about the market.
Let me tell you. Yes. A cycle started ever since your TV channel started. So what happened for the same reason? They all started seeing the world. You show it every second. Meaning, who knew what an index was? Nobody knows. Just because everyone was not aware of their stock market does not mean that it was not there.
No, it cannot happen. People have told you. No index you did a great job. You have done a very good job. This means it has been informed. The market has been made efficient. But I am telling you that till 2000 we did not even talk about the index. We only used to think what is going to happen in this share, that share is going to happen and even we did not talk much about the boom and bust, but now the talk of index, global has become so much, well players have also come in it, FI also means a lot has started playing, you mean the scale of everyone has changed, we are so well informed now, social media and now AI has also come, so it means you can do research for free, research at such a level that everyone is extremely well informed and yet psychologically everyone is very weak.
You have said many interesting things about these one by one. First, you are right about what happened post-Covid? There was a sudden surge in earnings. Now those earnings are probably normalizing and the stock market is discounting that. But Ramdev Sir, you just said that perhaps earnings treasury is returning to growth.
But those head winds, that crude oil, all those headaches are still there. In such a situation, you are not even bothered about EPS cuts, EPS downgrades, margin pressure etc. Whatever had to happen has happened. Right now, at least for this year, what they are saying is that brother, they are talking about 20 to 25% growth in Nifi earnings.
I do n't know how much respect I will get next year 27-28. But they are saying that 15% growth will come from there also. So 1250 is speaking for this year. Talking about 1450 EPS for next year. Right now this is the best estimate we have. So there is not much concern on the earnings growth side right now.
C ultimately the foundation of the market is earnings and earnings growth. Yes. If you have earnings and earnings growth then everything will be fine. Everything will be fine. So what I will see is if there are no earnings then what are you talking about ? What if there is no earnings growth, but the good thing is that the economy is growing very healthy.
You have earnings growth. You should improve the growth of the economy. GDP is good but that is not getting translated into earnings results for India Inc. It is not happening. It is happening this time. See, this means that earnings growth is returning now. You do that. Surely we sat on that platform.
Yes yes yes. You talked about mid caps and small caps. There may still be animalistic ones. There may be expensive pockets. They had a field day. The mid-cap and small-cap universe has shown very good outperformance for two years. Large caps massively underperformed. Do you guys think now is the time to pivot to large cap compounders ?
I think so, personally I think we should bet on large caps. Those are good large caps, its price means very high, if you say it was 20. It 's 12 13 now. Now see, all the banks, whether you take SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis, all are of 10, 12, 13 type, if this is what I mean brother, this is your nose of the entire market, if this is your 10, 12, 13 then the index also seems expensive at 18.
So clearly something has to change. All this means 18, 20%, 25% growth. They have to reflect. So right now there is a lot of money in the large cap finance sector, that will also change. How will he change now? Don't ask me why it will change and when it will change, but all this will turn around. Whether the TV channel has done it or not, we are well informed, nowadays Ramdev Sir, every morning we discuss the same thing, first of all we show, see where the crude oil stands, where the bond deals stand and where the dollar index stands and I think all these are connected to the West Asia crisis.
This impact, this increasing headache, is for all the global markets. Many markets like ours also depend heavily on crude oil. Why are we washing this alone? Why are we so lonely and venerable in space? I think this is to some extent the currency situation. Our vulnerability is large capital inflow and outflow, which means both the current account and capital account became negative this time.
The current account was always slightly negative but the capital account used to be in surplus. We at That's How You Use to Keep Balance and Sanity. What is this turn? Actually current account is very much under kind of above 1% kind of. But the capital account increased significantly. Because Sustainable FI Selling, now what are these policy makers or the government whoever is governing the system of financial system.
They are very well informed economists sitting there. He is thinking day and night. He is consulting day and night. So obviously this is a complex subject. They will take the right decision. I mean so far they have managed like this. So they will manage well. Well, as far as [clearing throat] domestic flows are concerned, which you discussed, retail SIP flows are going to remain structurally very strong.
And whatever FI selling came, they helped in absorbing it very beautifully. At least look towards a shock absorber. Now Ramdev Sir, because you people also keep an eye on the pulse of retail in Motilal Oswal. Off late that MTF selling etc. is intensifying. We who entered the post-Covid markets had never seen such a situation before.
When even veterans like you are saying that they have never seen a bear market, then it is becoming more panicky for us. This structural floor on which we have been relying till now. Will it stand firm with Just or are you now getting the feeling in conversations, in interactions with retail that things might start going wrong.
If this has not happened, continue till last month, if it has not happened till last month then it is not at all a SIP sting or it is the only support, everyone else is selling since last two weeks, that MTF selling etc., that little panicky MTF and all these speculative programs, all these are the talk of speculators, but do you believe that those structural flows will continue.
Right now, See You Can Say is the only thing about what has happened last month that remains. Got it? There is a good SIP system, it will not go wrong much, I mean, some huge fuss will have to be created for it, only then it will break because the commitment in it is for 36 months, it has become a habit, maybe it has become a habit, that will continue and everyone is saying that brother, you should keep it going, definitely keep it going in bad times and actually right, if you play in 24 KP, in 18 and 16, then there will be a lot of fuss, then how will the SIP work, so clearly I think this is structural, this will remain, this SIP flow will remain, now the question is that how will the rest of your primary market, from where IPO rating is happening and FI flow, I mean, what will that turn around, I mean, how will the currency be handled, I think the only concern I have is the currency and the source of the currency, as you said, everything is in West Asia, but actually before the Iran crisis started Pressure had started building on the currency, our currency had already started moving down, so this means that this is such a complex subject.
I don't want to say anything on that. That's why you need experts. Just explain the gist to us. What do you want us to do? No. So look, I am sitting in Equity Mall. I am a local man who gives it peacefully. Invested in the country. Got it? So, it means okay friends, we will see the pen, whatever it is, I mean now we have become Iranian type, let whatever has to come come, okay Ram Sir, you go ahead, it is fine, domestic inflows will continue, it is possible that mutual funds have also advertised very smartly, so it is in everyone's mind that SIP has to be continued, that is happening, this is a headache, the exodus of money of FPIs, that is continuing, when will it stop, when will they come back, what do you want to see, those must be your conversations.
What do they want to see when this tight turn happens? See, today Akash Prakash is the most established FII company in Singapore, he is a very sincere and a very good fund manager, if you look at his article today in Business Statement, he has explained it very well that India's relevance is going to end, meaning from 21 taka you have become 10 taka in MSCI, so people are underweight in that 10 taka, I mean 5-7%, now I am bolder about 5% allocation, so it means India is becoming irrelevant.
So we have to become relevant as an economy, we are relevant, right? But as an investing destination we are becoming irrelevant. So we should also think where we are doing wrong that brother we are not relevant. What's the problem? Listen, FMs like you are saying that brother, we will listen to their openness, we will listen to taxation.
Listen, apart from taxation, what other problems are there ? Why can't we and other people like FI buy here right now, why can't foreign citizens buy here right now? C You are going to an empty institution. For example, today in America, if you have dollars and you want to buy Microsoft shares, you can buy them in 1 minute.
But in India, if someone wants to buy Reliance or anything else, or wants to buy an index, then it is a very difficult process. So why can't we open to the whole 7 billion population and easy entry into this country, we you know, now see all this, when trouble comes then auto off box sessions will come.
Isn't it ? We should see what solutions will come. Right now I feel that the budget is being made, there are not many announcements yet, the matter is interesting. Well, what will come out of the boss, I don't know, one thing that is known or the proof is regarding market taxation, be it LTCG or STT, it is being cited that the markets with which we compete globally do not charge anything, we are neither giving returns nor are they taking taxes on top of it, what should be done actually and if suppose FM does it, even if the Indian government does it, then after that the FBI will come back, it will be a game changer, is it not that it is a key, it is not that, but looking at the long term, is it not that you need it within 6 months.
There is no such session that if you remove LTCG, their entire view will change from tomorrow. This is not right. C They are also coming to earn money. So their post tax return is that it gets hurt by 15% of whatever long term taxes are there. So in the long term you will have to make it more attractive.
Because our attraction as a destination is reducing. Your allocation has decreased. This means that you should play at least one level at one place. Yes, that's it. So wherever you look at the level, you can confirm the corporate earnings. What is there is there is not there. The economy is doing well and it is the fastest growing economy, so your fastest growing EPS growth will also come.
You should know this and keep it. If there is a fastest growing economy, then there will also be fastest growing corporate profits. So now the question is the second thing is is it the best what you call taxation destination? Is it comparable? At least you don't become bad in that. So you do that work.
Ok? I feel that what is in the minds of the policy makers right now is that if we do it for them then we should do it for the locals, we should do it for the domestic ones as well, you can mean you can make a choice, you can do it for the foreigners, we have different problems, we pay taxes in a different way, so let the domestic ones remain, there are such things too, but at least give that priority to them with the global investors because logically we should do it in my opinion
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