저자: DanteCook · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁으로 유가가 $112까지 급등, 장기 $100~150 지속 시 글로벌 경기침체·6~7% 인플레 가능성 제기. 주식 시총비중 25%(역사적 최고)로 위험 크다고 주장. 비트코인은 AI에 의해 파괴되지 않는 희소 자산이라 매수 기회로 제시. 금·비트코인 같은 비상관 희소자산 선호.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump single-handedly collapsed the markets yesterday. Saying the exact thing that nobody wanted to hear. Yet if during this period of time no deal is made, we have our eyes on key targets. If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.
After he said that, the markets imploded harder than Duke versus Yukon, and crude oil went to $112 a barrel. If no deal is reached, then the world's oil supply gets even smaller than it has been since the war started. And this spells doom for the world. The world economy cannot survive a 7 to 11% loss of oil supply.
Larry Fink, the CEO of the largest asset manager in the world, gave a chilling warning of what's going to happen if oil stays higher for longer. We could have years, years of you know, above $100, closer to $150 oil. What happens to the global economy if that happens? How do we see it? We'll we'll have global recession.
Today we're going to break down the possibility of a global recession if the war in Iran continues. We're going to look at how it could lead to 6 to 7% inflation, and why Bitcoin is the only asset that will survive this. Are you sitting down? Cuz this episode's about to get explosive. This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin Simply.
Let's go. We have two very extreme outcomes. And in my conversations, um throughout the world, with the US government, and all that, to me, everybody has to recognize it's it's there's not going to be an outcome that's somewhere in the middle. It's going to either be two extremes. Is it is Iran a country that can be accepted by the international community?
Can Iran be a country that participates in the world again? And if that outcome occur, then you could have the Iranian oil back into the marketplace alongside what the growth of the Iranian oil, and you could you could paint a picture where where oil prices could be lower than they were prior to the Iranian war.
If there's a cessation of war, and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the to the Straits of Hormuz, then I would argue then we could have years, years of you know, above $100, closer to $150 oil. What happens to the global economy if that happens? How do we see it? We'll we'll have global recession.
If you don't know who that is, that's Larry Fink, aka Uncle Larry, the CEO of BlackRock, the $13 trillion asset manager that controls the pockets and the decisions of governments, pension funds, and asset managers all over the globe. He says that there's not going to be an outcome somewhere in the middle.
Either we get peace or we get an outright doom scenario that leads to a global recession. His words, not mine. If the war continues, there are going to be implications that people aren't ready for. Luke Gromen says worldwide collapse. The world economy cannot survive a 7 to 11% loss of oil supply. It will not survive.
We can debate is Europe going to go first and collapse? Is Southeast Asia going to go first and collapse? Will America collapse first? Will But the global economy is it is a certainty. It will collapse if we keep oil supplies down 7%. likelihood we go we go there and we stay there? What's the timeline?
Like if we go to 7 to 11% for how long? Well, we could be in there for 6 weeks. And I think if we get to mid-April, like you're already seeing flights, I just woke up this morning, a discount airline in out of London Gatwick canceled all flights, can't get fuel. The ripple effects of this will be catastrophic.
It will have broad structural impacts across everything in the world because oil is in everything. Plastics, clothes, fabrics, even our food supply chain. This isn't just going to lead to higher prices at the gas pump, which is over $4 a gallon globally. This is going to lead to 6 to 7% inflation everywhere.
Mel Madison breaks down the implications of what this means in a great conversation that he had with Marty Bent on the TFTC podcast. Check it out. like, there's nothing to worry about with inflation. And and so I think what we've seen markets doing is worrying about that. Then what does that mean? It means possibly rate hikes.
What does that mean? It means higher 2-year yields. You know, now we got higher bond yields. Now we have to lower the PEs. Now like all these things start flowing from this higher oil price, higher for longer. And one of the things I said at the beginning of this war was it would almost be better to have like a spike to 150 and like a quick end of this war come than like something that can be drawn out.
And we're we're we are in a situation where one of the possible situations is like this drawn-out conflict. Like maybe some boots on the ground, but it's a lot more of this missiles back and forth, and the economy doesn't completely shut down or go to $200 a barrel because, you know, Iran does is letting like China tankers go through and stuff like this.
And so instead of having some sort of a resolution anytime soon, we get this long-drawn-out conflict where oil just hovers between say 90 and 150. And like you do that, and you are going to start getting 6 7% inflation down the road. And then you add on to that, um you know, the already slowing labor picture, and all of these AI concerns that people have had, and you do actually wind up getting into that 1970s stagflation situation, which I thought would be impossible for us to get into because oil was so well-behaved, and we were oversupplied, and the United States is the world's biggest producer, and all of this stuff.
So we've got so many risks on the table for the market, and I think even the best-case scenario, which is this thing wraps up in the next few weeks somehow magically, um there's going to be this new premium on oil. And that that's that's going to be a big, you know, headwind that's going to stop wars from being able to lower rates as much as I thought at the beginning of the year he was probably going to be able to.
I still think he's going to lower rates, um because I think the economy eventually, if there if the prices are that high for that long, it will start to drive, you know, recessionary and and create demand destruction and all that stuff eventually. But by that point, I mean, man, the economy's already going to be wrecked.
In a nutshell, things aren't looking good, and the people that will be hurt the most are the people who don't own assets. Because we are in an era of fiscal dominance. There will be money that is printed to cover over or paper over the debt that federal governments and institutions have that they're willing to print at infinitum in order to fund wars.
Like Donald Trump coming out and saying that they have a new $1.5 trillion defense spending budget. If you don't own defense assets or assets that make you defensive, well, you're going to get left behind. This is why smart people like Lyn Alden say that Bitcoin is a buying opportunity. Is is Bitcoin a buying opportunity?
I do. I think Bitcoin's a buying opportunity. I also think, um you know, Latin American banks, for example, airlines, airports. I I think these things don't necessarily bounce back quickly, but once we do have a light at the end of the tunnel, I think some of those beaten-down areas have a lot of upside.
After we thank our sponsors, I want to get to the ultimate segment of our show, a conversation with Jordy Visser and Natalie Brunell from her Coin Stories podcast, where they talk about how Bitcoin is the long-term solution to the problems in Iran and the disruption happening from AI. Stick around. Ledn has been the leader in Bitcoin back loans since 2018, issuing over $10 billion worth of loans to tens of thousands of people across the globe.
And what they allow you to do, they allow you to borrow against your Bitcoin without selling your Bitcoin. Why sell the greatest asset for an asset that's being printed at infinitum? Why sell your Bitcoin with a 21 million supply that's fixed forever for assets like dollars, which are being printed at a pace that we've never seen before.
Work with Ledn to unlock liquidity in your Bitcoin without selling it. The application takes just 2 minutes, and loan rates are now down between 9.99% and 11.49%. That's cheaper than a credit card, and there's no credit check. Go to learn.ledn.io/simply to get started. And the other way that you can benefit from a prolonged war is by removing your assets from the banks.
We've all heard of eminent domain in the United States government or other governments around the world seizing your assets without you saying so to fund something that you didn't want to be a part of in the first place. Well, you can avoid all of this by getting a coach at The Bitcoin Way. They'll walk you and your family through exactly how to prepare for a scenario where governments might try to seize your assets.
Well, they can't seize your Bitcoin private keys if you have them stored properly and you're sovereign over them. Go to the bitcoinway.com/partner/dante-cook to get started. Back to the show. I'm not saying this cuz I'm sitting here with you. I'm not saying this cuz you wrote a book on this. Um there's a reason why I decided not to work in the fiat world.
There's a reason why I spend my time with the Bitcoin community. Uh I've written a paper about the best macro trade I've ever seen in risk reward. So everyone has read the IPO piece, which I still subscribe to and believe that we're going through it. But the one that was more important for me, I I've always spent my time thinking about what the future's going to look like.
I don't see a world with the speed happening in artificial intelligence, with AI agents, with humanoids, with everything, and us still being on the guardrails of settling a check in in days. Like I don't that doesn't make any sense. The speed of the world's is accelerating dramatically, and since November it or late November, it's accelerated significantly.
And for people don't follow AI close enough, Opus 4.5 changed the world. It accelerated artificial intelligence to the way that you're now seeing it to the point that it disrupted all of these companies, not just software companies. Financial companies, trucking companies, you've heard all the stories.
That will continue to happen and eventually humanoids will do the same thing to manufacturing companies and Caterpillar and all this because humanoids change the entire equation for physical side. I was at a dinner the other night and I said to people, you have to get in your head we are not the top of the food chain anymore.
That is a huge transition that a super intelligent being that is physically stronger and smarter than the smartest person has ever lived will be here in 5 years. You cannot fathom the changes that are going to happen. So, when that goes back to Bitcoin, the world doesn't survive with companies and stocks.
It survives with assets that don't have a story that can be disrupted. It gets into scarcity. And this is the point where Michael Saylor and I agree on this. At some point, the world has been about the opposite of scarcity. We've been economics is based on scarcity. We need scarce assets. We need things that actually have it because we can print everything with artificial intelligence.
Picassos, whatever we want. We can print anything that we want within 5 to 10 years. So, that just means Bitcoin is the best opportunity. Not because it's the best asset, but because it's the one that doesn't get destroyed by AI. Bitcoin is one of the assets that doesn't get destroyed by AI. When you think about the world, physical assets are moving towards scarcity, but digital assets are moving towards abundance.
And so is information and technology. So, how do you blend the two? How do you blend digital scarcity with physical scarcity? Well, you buy the only asset that's tied to physical proof of work that has a limited digital supply. Equities are not a great place to put your money right now. And that's because equities make up 25% of total US net worth.
That's the highest since they began collecting the state in the 1940s. This surpasses the dot-com bubble, which was about 20% and the 1968 high at 22%. The war is going to lead to a collapse in everything, including stocks. And the consumer is the one who is going to be hurt. And it doesn't look like it's going to stop any time soon, especially with the president making comments that they're going to start bombing bridges.
We're going to see a daisy chain of inflation. Are you prepared? We're a month into the war. I don't know who's winning the war. Maybe you can tell me who's winning the war, but I feel like the US consumer is losing the war. Meaning, gas prices are up, mortgage rates are back up. Stocks have been fluctuating, but generally down over the period of time of the war.
How would you react to that statement? The war, there was hope that this could be a fast war like Venezuela that we'd have regime change. And I think that quickly turned out false hope. And now we've got crude at $104 as we speak and Brent crude at $120 or $118, whatever. And so, oil is high. That will lead to higher fertilizer or prices, higher food prices, higher plastic prices.
And so, there is a daisy chain of inflation that's headed our way. If that's the case, you want to own scarce assets. Assets not correlated to the market and that have physical properties associated with them. Assets like gold and assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate win for this trade. Don't overcomplicate this.
We've been talking about this all along. If you haven't already done so, subscribe to the channel. We drop alpha like this 7 days a week to have you prepared for what comes next. And if you haven't already got the news, we always talk about stacking more Bitcoin. We can do that through buying spot Bitcoin or through Bitcoin mining now.
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Use the QR code to get started. This is Dante Cook at Bitcoin Simply. Happy stacking.
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