저자: SimplyBitcoin진행자 · 외국인
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Ark Invest(캐시 우드)가 2030년 비트코인 가격 목표를 상향 조정했다고 소개. 기존 bear 30만/base 71만/bull 150만 달러에서, 손실 공급을 반영한 실험적 모델로 bear 5만 대/base 120만/bull 240만 달러 수준을 제시. 진행자들은 기관·국가·기업 재무 수요와 손실 코인 감안 시 목표가 과도하지 않다고 주장. 다만 뉴스 호재에도 가격은 10만 달러 전후에서 지지부진하며 리테일 참여 부족이 지적됨. 출연자들은 10만 달러 회복 후 재평가를 언급.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood is famous for her $1.5 million Bitcoin bullcase for 2030, but she just raised it to $2.5 million. Yes, in four years time, $2.5 million Bitcoin. But why has she changed her price predictions now? What new information has she uncovered that's made her even more bullish than ever before? Let's dive straight into this new report and uncover this.
Of course, guys, I'm not alone. I'm here with Kent from SAS Mining and we have Nico. Uh, let's just hope his internet's working. We have no idea what's going on. Anyways, let's dive straight into this Arc Invest. So, we've covered this report in the past. I think we've we've all probably heard this and now there is some new variables going on.
And honestly, guys, again, Opti Vindicated on the show because I've been saying something very similar for a long time, but now it's coming now to the institution. So, you love to see it. So here we go. ARC price target for Bitcoin in 2030. 2030 price predictions are so hot right now. Anyways, price targets in this article rely on assumptions made regarding the total addressable markets, TAM, and penetration rates discussed below.
Bitcoin may fail to reach these price targets if any of the total addressable markets or penetration rates are not met. Risk and limitations exist that may prevent our forecast from being realized. Of course, they're referencing the first report here in ARC big ideas 2025 report. We updated our Bitcoin price targets for 2030 projecting a bare base and bull case for of 300K, 710K, and $1.5 million per Bitcoin respectively as shown be below.
So you can see the first uh the first predictions here. Of course, we've covered this in the past. You can see the bare case was 300K again and the reasons here. I'm I'm kind of color blind, so I'm probably not the one to really, you know, explain this, but a small amount of emerging market safe haven.
uh a digital gold meme and then institutional investment and then further uh what are these what are these files got you all right all right guys I'm I'm I'm back I'm back from El Salvador apparently the first day I'm back the internet decides to play games with us I don't know what's going on I have to get a cable fix or something but yes the colors on the screen there's the purple the purple stands for institutional investor purple wow Okay, the yellow is digital gold on top of the purple.
The red is emerging, sorry about that, emerging safe haven. And then the green on top is national state treasury. Uh so Kathy Wood's original argument that her base case for 2030 was $710,000 Bitcoin, but according to Opti, apparently that base case has gone up. It's no longer 710K. Okay, now moving on.
Moving on, you can see again more charts on price target assumptions. We've we've covered all this before. Um, so this is just saying the old article unpacks the modeling methodology and assumptions supporting those price targets. Now, there's some maths here. We're not going to go over the math, but you can, you know, read this yourself.
Price targets and assumptions. And then going down, or actually maybe we'll read this part. the uh anticipated contributors to capital curl primary institutional investment primarily through spot ETFs referred to by some as digital gold. Uh Bitcoin is nimler more transparent store of value relative to gold.
Emerging market investors seeking a safe haven that can protect them against inflation and devaluation. And I think this is the newest newest take we are seeing recently. People are starting to look at Bitcoin as a safe haven. We've all seen the gold price start to rip. We've all heard about the uncertainty in tradies as the bond markets.
The usual, you know, risk-free in store value is the bond market. Now, everyone's getting concerned. They're kind of dropping the bonds going into gold. And here we go. the anticipated contributors to capital craries nation state treasuries as other countries follow the US with Bitcoin strategic reserve corporate treasuries as more companies diversify fiat cash with Bitcoin and then lastly Bitcoin onchain financial services as Bitcoin substitutes for legacy finance which is something as Bitcoiners have been saying for a long time again some more charts and then they kind of just break down the different things they just talked about the institutional investments the digital gold meme the emerging market for safe haven nation state treasury uries, corporate treasuries, and of course, Bitcoin onchain financial services.
Now, going down, they start to talk about the Bitcoin supply. And this is the part where I think a lot of us Bitcoiners, we we just do the simple math where we break everything down by 21 million. But as this article breaks down, the thing that a lot of us do when we make our price predictions is we don't account for lost Bitcoin.
Bitcoin that's going to, you know, permanently be out of the supply. And this is where they started to update their new models and it makes it even more bullish. So going down, of course, I think we've all kind of have this idea that uh there's probably somewhere around 3 to 5 million Bitcoin that are lost.
So you can move down when you do all of your math comparing to global capital markets. It's probably not 21 million that we should be dividing everything with. It could be, you know, I've heard some people say around 15. Usually people use 18 million to do the math. And this is where they start to get these ridiculously bullish price predictions.
And it's Monday, so we're going to start strong on the week with some really uh bullish price predictions here just cuz we know you love it. It's not us, it's Kathy Wood. Well, I know, but we're highlighting it. We're highlighting. So, here is the updated 2030 Bitcoin price targets. You can see 2030 price target for active supply with the base or bare case assumption has now moved to $50,000 per coin with a kagger of 32%.
Which is interesting cuz I forget Nico what was sailors it's it's he I think he's been using 20% kagger. We know historically it's 40% kagger. So moving on base case is now 1.2 million with a 53% kagger. And of course, the bullcase, which is what we all want to see here, is $2.4 million per Bitcoin with a keer of 72%.
Which is I that's crazy. I know we've been trying to do conservative price predictions here, but 72% keer, you know, compounding annual growth rate of 72% every year, even through a maybe a bare market. That would be incredible. Absolutely incredible. Anyways, here's the crux of it. Importantly, the estimates constructed with the more experimental methodology are more aggressive than those in our bare base and bull cases with a more conservative bias.
Our official price targets focus only on total Bitcoin supply. That said, we also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin scarcity and loss supply are not reflected in most valuations models today, which I think goes into what all Bitcoiners constantly say, all your models are broken.
I think the big takeaway here is we really don't know where the price is going. All we do know is digital scarcity hasn't fully been groed in the mainstream collective consciousness. And when you really account for how much Bitcoin, of course, we don't know how much Bitcoin is actually lost. It could be more, it could be less.
It could be that some OGs here still have those keys and just, you know, they've been hodling for 15 plus years and one day it'll move. I know a lot of people say that maybe Satoshi's coins will eventually move as well, but I do love this new kind of updated model because I've been saying this for a while, but I've been kind of doing it as just like a throwaway comment here on the show.
It's like, look, we all do our price predictions with 21 million and we don't really account for how much Bitcoin has lost because we really don't know. And if you do do those calculations, you start to see the Bitcoin price predictions are getting crazy. So, I don't know. I would love to see a 72% Kager.
I know historically we have seen that on bull years but when you kind of average it out I believe it's historically 40% kagger. So even if we just do a 40% kagger that is you know what uh 700 1 point something mil. Uh so hey the numbers when you get down to the math it's not that crazy. I know people start to say hey these bitcoiners really don't understand how big numbers work and I'm like I don't think you understand what digital scarcity truly means.
So, we'll see who's correct. Come back to us in 5 years and we'll see if we were extremely bullish on this Monday or we were conservative. Anyways, Nico, uh, are you here? How is your internet? What is going on? Yeah, I don't know, man. Just uh I am here. I am back. I'm back home, but apparently uh the internet is not cooperating today.
I've unplugged every box known to man. Um, I don't know what's going on, but hopefully I'll have it fixed by tomorrow. But anyhow, let's just get back to over 100K first. Uh that's that's my response to this. Uh you know, we we have this, you know, sailor's dropping $13 million per coin. You know, Kathy Woods upping her price target to 2.5.
Uh we can't even sustain 100K. So, let's just get to 100K. I'll be happy there. Um and then, you know, we'll kind of reassess. But it is a bullish it is a bullish sign that she's obviously moving her price target. And I mean what we've been saying for most of this year is essentially that this has been the most bullish year in terms of news.
Like we've never had this much news in Simply Bitcoin's history like back to back to back to back. And then all of a sudden the price action is not cooperating with the news, right? You have talk of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. You have Jack Mer announcing uh the Bitcoin holding company with Tether.
uh that earlier on today you had some news about huge banks from from uh from countries and essentially buying into Bitcoin holding companies. I mean if you actually pay attention to the stuff that's going on around you uh Bitcoin should be much much higher right now. Is Bitcoin reacting to kind of like the general macro environment?
Some people make the argument for that. Some people make the argument that it's because of the Fed's monetary policy that Bitcoin isn't higher right now. I don't know. But what I will say is I'll be happy if we make it back to 100k and then we can kind of reassess, you know, uh these 500 200k 200k $2 million price predictions.
Uh just because Yeah, man. I mean, look, like let's be real. I think this year in general, uh people had higher expectations for Bitcoin and I think Bitcoin has underperformed a little bit to say the least. But it's weird because it's not matching the like the news that's happening. The news that's happening is incredibly bullish.
Like it's ridiculously bullish. I've never seen like if this type of news broke in 2018, Bitcoin would have 100xed in a month. Like it it would have been so easy for it to do that and it hasn't, right? Is it just because Bitcoin's market cap is so much bigger? Is it because now there's more it's institutional buying rather than retail buying?
A lot of people are theorizing that if you look at Google Trends, Bitcoin's interest on Google Trends has still not surpassed the 2017 highs. Even back in 2021 when we had a peak, it didn't surpass the 2017. So, who's buying all this Bitcoin? It's it's institutional buying. It's it's government buying.
It's OTC buying, but it's not it hasn't been happening through retail. So, retail hasn't come back yet. That obviously creates an enormous opportunity cuz I think it's inevitable when the supply shock hits. I just don't know when that's going to happen. I don't think anyone knows when it's going to happen.
So I think in general number tends to go up over time. Uh people are saying yeah but that's that's what I'm saying like people are saying 200 people forget but back in 2021 people were saying 200k. It's been four years. Like if you take a look at Max Kaiser's Twitter account, he's been calling 220K Bitcoin for four effing years.
We barely broke 109, right? So again, I'm not saying that this stuff isn't going to happen. I think it's inevitable. 20 infinity divided by 21 million. What I will say is like, let's just get back to 100K and then let's let's reassess. Let's have a conversation. But it is very bullish. I mean, look, again, you got to pay attention to the signal, not the noise.
The MERS's uh announcement from last week was massive. Micro Strategy's performance is massive. The fact that the United States government has the intention to buy Bitcoin, they're they're transmitting this to the world is massive. Like it has all the signs. All the signs are there. Like it's not rocket science at this point.
But I just think that you know I think it say RL says you say no retail. What about the ETFs? A lot of that is probably retail. I mean, you could say that, but again, Google Trends doesn't lie. Like, I'll pull it up while I pass it to Kent. But Kent, first of all, welcome to the show. We got the CEO of SAS Mining joining us today.
We're going to be doing a demo of SAS Mining on the show today, which should be a whole lot of fun. Can't can't wait for that. But Kent, what's your take on this, man? Because yes, extremely bullish price predictions. Opti and I have had amazing shows from the perspective when the White House had the crypto White House summit uh where they had all the industry heavyweights at the White House.
Me and OPTIV did that show and we were like on cloud9 but the price wasn't moving. The price was like like 95K, right? So what's your take on this man? Like incredibly bullish from a news perspective but price has has yet to catch up. Yeah, man. I uh what comes to mind? So, first of all, thanks to be back here, man.
It's I always have a blast with you two. Um and you know, as I as I think through like what you guys are both talking about to me, it kind of lands within the bigger picture for me of it just feels like we're in this global weirding phase at the moment, right? Where like there's this transformation going on with the monetary system, with tariffs, this macro, like everybody's just kind of offkilter a little bit.
And it feels like Bitcoin is too because you're right. I mean, I've been around tracking Bitcoin since late 2015, and this sort of news uh at other phases of the cycle would have absolutely jacked the the price. I mean, this is insane stuff that's coming out. And I also think that there's a mismatch with your your retail that still confuses Bitcoin with crypto and has unit bias issues.
So, I think that there's just this weird like combination that's going on right now, but what it feels like is like Bitcoin is like coiling, right? like when when massive positive news doesn't move the price more than like a bit, it tells me actually that the the the mania phase of the bull market that we're all expecting this year hasn't hasn't happened yet.
I don't know what that means. I don't know where numbers go. I at this point in my Bitcoin journey, I I'm sort of a take it level to level and just keep stacking and you're going to be fine sort of mentality about it. But it clearly feels like the entire system is creaking and transforming and it's just weird out there.
I don't know how any other better way to say it, you know. I mean, I I think you you make a really good point. We we had LOP on the show. Uh I think it was like a week ago or so and he said like verbatim, right? And like he was like even saying he was like, "Yeah, I'm in Telegram chats with OGs and like no one has any idea what's going on." Like American Hodddle's posting this as well.
Uh it is like that's a signal when Hodddle's getting bearish. It's not even it's not even bearish. No one I don't think I don't think you can make the the case that Hodddle is bearish. I think like everyone's just like what is going on? Like that's essentially like the TLDDR is like what is going on?
No one knows. Yeah, we're not in Kansas anymore, Toto. Yeah. I mean it it has gotten weird since they introduced the ETFs. It has gotten strange. Like we we peaked before the having uh that was a little weird. Uh the price action has been very strange. I mean, Bitcoin could just be growing up. Like, we could be in this like eighth month, eighth month sideways action.
Get a night nice 50% pump, then 10% correction, then another two years, another 80% pump. We're We're trading the S&P 500 on steroids now. This is no longer fun. Where's the Bitcoin gains that was promised, Nico? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know, man. Or or it could just rip one day. It could just rip out of nowhere and just catch everyone by surprise.
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