저자: Sophie · 외국인
요약 보기
BlackRock CEO 래리 핑크가 레버리지 우려 해소와 향후 12개월 강세 전망을 언급했다고 해석하며, 클래리티 법안 통과 임박과 비트코인 상승 기대를 주장한다. 다만 진행자는 바닥 확정은 아니며 단기적으로 50달러대(5만 달러대)까지 하락할 가능성도 열어둔다고 말한다. 또한 장기적으로 양적완화 성격의 통화 확대와 인플레이션 지속을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
While everyone's distracted with the impending passing of the Clarity Act, Larry Fink might have just given us the most interesting buy signal of 2026. And I say might because the media is not framing it that way at all. They reported on the headline and then they moved on. But when the CEO of the world's largest asset manager, a man who controls over $10 trillion, says two things in the same breath, you slow down and you listen.
What? Listen to what he has to say here. There is no question, as I said it in earlier times that I was here. I was always worried about the leverage in in Bitcoin and crypto. There was too much leverage players in it. That's why we had the wash out and I think there's more stability at these levels here.
But um no, I we don't see that much implicit leverage. For the scale of the capital markets today, the leverage is not as large. I mean, that's a that that that doesn't mean there's not pockets. That but no, I I I as I said in my prepared remarks this morning, I'm very bullish on the markets over the next 12 months.
I think the technological revolution is going to power better margins for more companies. I mean, think about BlackRock. We our margins increased by 260 basis points over the last 12 months. Bottom of it is using more and more technology. Welcome back to Satoshi. Let's get into it. Before I get into it, if you're new here, hi.
Smash the like button, please hit the subscribe and share this episode with somebody who needs to hear it today. Okay. Let's slow down the clip. Larry Fink is not a Bitcoin maximalist. I think we've caught on to that. He's not a podcaster and he's not on Bitcoin Twitter. He is the CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset management firm on Earth with over $10 trillion dollars management.
When he says something about Bitcoin, he is speaking for every institutional client, every sovereign wealth fund, every pension manager who follows his lead. And what he said yesterday is worth reading very carefully. He said he's no longer concerned about excessive leverage. That word, no longer, is doing a lot of work because that means that he was worried and then something changed.
The leverage that was there has either been unwound, absorbed, or settled in a way that no longer gives him pause. And if you've been watching this cycle, you know what that leverage unwinding has looked like. The ETF outflows, the 29% drawdown, the 6 weeks of consecutive selling that everyone was screaming about, that's the shakeout.
That's the shakeout Fink needed to see before he felt comfortable saying what he said yesterday. And then he said 12 months. Not eventually, not long-term, 12 months. July 2027. BlackRock CEO is on record saying that he is very bullish on Bitcoin for the next 12 months. That is a statement of position from people who determine where trillions of dollars move.
What's your take? Your Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act would create a regulatory framework, establish new SEC disclosure rules for certain tokens, provide greater clarity for the crypto industry, uh and the bill seeks to expand law enforcement tools to combat crypto-related crime by applying anti-money laundering and sanctions rules to crypto exchanges, but you can't get it over the finish line.
What's the problem? Well, it's taken us virtually every day for the last 10 months uh to get this bill in the condition it's in today, and we're ready. Uh so, we will be introducing in the next few days. We're going to be in session now for four straight weeks. It's very important that we get this bill across the finish line before the August recess begins.
So, we can make the markets aware of the stability that will be provided to them if they remain on shore in the United States to do business. This is a pivotal time for the industry and we want to meet their needs. We also want to meet the needs of law enforcement with regard to preventing illicit finance and provide consumer protections.
We think we've accomplished that goal with this bill. It's been arduous, but we're ready for prime time. Now, here's where it gets interesting because Fink didn't say this in a vacuum necessarily. Let me give you the situation on the Clarity Act situation as it stands right now, and it is moving fast, so pay attention.
The Clarity Act is the bill that would finally define how Bitcoin and digital assets are classified, regulated, and taxed in the United States. It determines whether Bitcoin companies can operate freely in America or keep getting chased offshore. The House passed it a year ago, and now the Senate is what's left.
And Congress goes on recess in 16 working days. So, here's what happened in the last 48 hours. First, sources close to the negotiation started posting that the Clarity Act is {quote} done, just hasn't been announced yet. And that's not from a random account, that's from someone with access. Politico reported this week that Trump met with senators at the White House to discuss the bill's path to success.
Senator Bernie Moreno was there and said, "Obviously, the president's been very engaged in this bill. He's the one who's really driven the innovation. Senator Tom Tillis told Politico directly, "I'm hoping that we can come up with some agreement by the end of this week. I think it's critical if we're going to try and get this across the floor before August recess." And Senator Cynthia Lummis, the crypto queen of our Congress, went on Fox Business and said a new draft version of the bill will be released in the next few days.
And she expects it on the Senate floor next week. That is Politico. That is sitting US senators on the record this week. And if you want a data point from the prediction market itself, in a 79% chance on the Clarity Act getting the Senate vote before the August recess. That number jumped from 68% in just a single day.
And one more thing that I think is worth noting, also this morning, President Bukele of El Salvador, the first world leader to make Bitcoin legal tender, was at the White House for an 11:00 a.m. meeting with Trump. I don't think any of this is a coincidence. I don't think Fink's comments yesterday were a coincidence.
And I don't think that the House Financial Services Committee announcing a field hearing in New York City tomorrow on a one-year anniversary of the House passing the Clarity Act is a coincidence. Which raises a question that I want you guys to sit with. Whatever happens with legislation, the law cannot protect what you don't actually hold.
If your Bitcoin is sitting on an exchange, you hold an IOU. The Clarity Act passing does not change that. Self-custody is the only position that regulation cannot reach. So, you need the Bitcoin way. There's a free 30-minute consultation at the bitcoinway.com/simply. Tell them Satoshi sent you. There there's no world where Bitcoin becomes a multi-trillion dollar liquid asset that is somehow magically only owned by like retail investors.
Uh any sort of any sort of large pool of capital, if they get bullish on the asset at a at a CEO or board level, um it makes sense for them to want to have some of that asset as well and and benefit their shareholders or, you know, whatever they might be doing, whether it's a corporation, an insurance company, um a sovereign wealth fund, uh some you know, a central bank, whatever the case may be.
If they get bold up on Bitcoin, um and it's liquid and large enough that an entity of their size can, you know, actually take it seriously, which they, you know, they couldn't do in 2013, right? It's just too small and too illiquid for a large pool of capital to get involved. But now that Bitcoin's pretty big, it makes sense for some of them to want to get involved, and I think that's rational.
Um and then I think from there it comes down to specifics. You know, if someone says, "You shouldn't own Bitcoin. You should only own, uh you know, Bitcoin proxies." Uh I would generally push back on that unless someone is, you know, saying, "Hey, if you only have a retirement account, at least, you know, if you're bullish on Bitcoin, at least there's products for you now, right?" But um I I would generally push back on people trying to get people to not hold actual Bitcoin and get into these securities.
Um but that's not what a lot of them are doing. I mean, you know, you can pull out individual remarks. I I'm not going to say what every every person out there has said. Um but there yeah, there are kind of walled garden pools of capital, retirement accounts, things like that. Um uh there are pools of capital that have been dates, you know, they they they have to own bonds or they have to own certain types of securities, and these make them, you know, if you happen to be a Bitcoiner uh in a seat that that has to run that type of capital, um then you have Bitcoin securities.
You can potentially do Bitcoin miners. You can do Bitcoin treasury companies. Um you know, there there are these avenues available. So I think that there's a spectrum. So let me ask the conspiracy question out loud because I think it deserves more than just a shrug. If the Clarity Act is ready, if the votes are in, and Larry Fink is already publicly saying that he's very bullish for 12 months, who already knew?
Think about what we know for a second. BlackRock's ETFs had six straight weeks of outflows, billions leaving, and simultaneously, whales were buying 16.7 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in 2 weeks. We covered that. The data is on-chain, and it doesn't lie. So, while the ETF headline was institutions are leaving Bitcoin, the actual Bitcoin was moving from ETF-adjacent paper hands into wallets that don't sell.
Fink comes out yesterday and says he's no longer worried. The Clarity Act may be days from being announced. I'm not saying that there's a coordinated conspiracy. I'm saying, follow the timing. And follow the Bitcoin. Follow who moves first. Every major regulatory unlock in Bitcoin's history has been preceded by a shakeout that retail didn't understand until it was over.
The people who knew what was coming already positioned themselves when that announcement hit. Is that what's happening right now? I genuinely don't know, but I'm just asking the questions that I would want answered if I were new to the space. If the balance sheet is expanding, it's not regular. That's That's inflationary, and meaning it's debasing the currency.
And so, those are obvious kind of flags for you to get back into those trades. Not that I've ever gotten out of them. Yeah, me neither. It's uh I'm too bad at trading. I just buy and hold Bitcoin. But, what like when it QE comes back in whatever form it is, might not be called QE, do you think we could see yield curve control and go the full sort of Japan playbook route.
I I do, but I don't think it would be I don't I think it would be much less obvious than what Japan has been doing. I just think that we'll obfuscate it um in some way, shape, or form with acronyms and programs and I I just don't I don't think it would be so obvious. Um but functionally and structurally it it'd basically be the same thing.
The question is how much would we be buying how and for how long? Um and you know, and whether it's like Larry says is whether it's a collapse of of the markets or economy or the or confidence in the Treasury and next thing you know, there's you've got the big print. Um I that would take a a black swan event that we can't imagine.
Um but you know, I couldn't imagine 6 years ago that they would insist that we be locked in our own houses [snorts] for months at a time. So, who knows? Who knows what they come up with? But um you know, I I just think it's more along the lines of a slow continuous quiet print. And they do they make they move these programs around to keep it going and they're active.
They dance around it. I don't think it's going to be in your face big um obvious debasement. I think it's going to be a quiet steady debasement like we're seeing now. Right now, it's just a I think we got QE light going on. Mhm. And I think it'll be QE light to medium for a long time and that's and they will allow the inflation to run hotter than they'll admit to, which is the whole point of the conversation we started with, which is what really is the inflation rate?
Go go look at your own bills. Go look at what you you paying for last year and compare it what you're paying this year. Look at the same things and look at your grocery bill, your gas bills, your your you know, air conditioning energy and uh and don't forget insurance. The biggest that's likely the biggest slug of it.
Health, home, car, like that stuff is just skyrocketed. Childcare, I mean, I you can't tell me it's it's three 3.5%. Please. Zero Zero chance. So, the the best thing they could do for them is quietly allow inflation run hot, you know, quietly let it run 5 7 9% without people really understanding it, somehow.
To inflate away that debt. happened. Yeah. What's that? To inflate away that debt. To inflate away the debt. Yeah, inflate away the obligations. Now, I'm going to play the other side because I think you deserve to hear both cases. The bear case is not crazy. Canter Fitzgerald, $26 billion under management, called the October bottom weeks ago and we're still in July, okay?
The 307-day consolation between 60K and 70K is the third longest in Bitcoin history and it hasn't broken up yet. Macro risk is still real. The geopolitical situation hasn't resolved. If something breaks in markets before the Clarity Act passes, we could absolutely see a flush to the low 50s. And here's the honest truth.
Even if Fink is bullish for 12 months, 12 months includes the possibility of going lower first. I'm not saying sell. I'm never going to tell you to sell or buy. Well, maybe buy. I don't know. That's up to you. I will be saying though, be clear-eyed. Don't hear Fink is bullish and assume that the bottom is in.
What it tells you is that the direction he sees over one year horizon is up. It says nothing about what's going to happen in the next 30 days, but the setup is bullish long-term, the way Bitcoin has always been. It's always been about the long-term. So, the timing is uncertain, but those two things can be both true at the same time.
And if you watch this show, you know what we're about, freedom of speech, moving Bitcoin forward, owning your own money, and not asking permission. The Rumble wallet is built exactly for that. They just launched their new wallet and the setup is simple. Head over to wallet.rumble.com/simply and use simply10 to get $10 free today.
Self-sovereign, self-custody, and it supports the platforms and creators who actually stand for something. So, grab your $10 at wallet.rumble.com/simply, code simply10. Okay, I want to end on something that sounds like a joke, but actually isn't. Bitcoin Twitter is back! We are back, baby. And I mean fully back.
The replies are flying, the memes are circulating, the conviction posts are returning. We are all friends again on each other's for you page, and it's a thing of beauty, let me tell you. People who went quiet for 6 months, who stopped posting, stopped engaging, stopped caring about the price, are finally showing up on our timelines again.
Welcome back. Welcome back. And I know how that sounds. Sophie is using the vibes as a market indicator. Yeah, okay, I'm a girl, but hear me out. Every single Bitcoin cycle that I've watched, and I've watched at least two of them, enough of them married to Nico that it basically counts as a PhD, and the loudest silence comes right at the bottom.
The absolute depths of a bear market are quiet. The community goes dormant. Nobody wants to post when the price is down and the discourse is just pain. It's also kind of a coincidence that everybody just happened to come back online when this BIP 110 thing was resolved, but that's a conversation for another episode.
My point is that when people start coming back, when the energy picks up before any obvious catalyst, the BIP 110 thing, it's because people who understand this asset start feeling something shift. The tourists don't come back to Bitcoin Twitter. They moved on to the next thing. The people who are posting right now are the people who have been here through 2018, through 2022, through every bear market, every up and down that was supposed to be the end, and then we are so back.
And now, we really are so back. And listen, I don't know if the bottom is definitively in. I don't have a crystal ball. Canter says October, the chart says that we're still in the range, but my gut says that the setup is as good as I've seen. And when the serious people, aka you and me, start showing up again, that's always been worth paying attention to.
And if you want to be in the room where the next chapter of Bitcoin gets built, you want to be at Mining Disrupt, July 21st through the 23rd in Miami, the world's largest Bitcoin mining conference. Code simply Bitcoin for 20% off at miningdisrupt.com. Larry thinks says he's no longer worried, the Clarity Act clock is ticking, Bitcoin Twitter is alive again, and I'm not telling you the bottom is in, but I am telling you that the setup has never looked more like every other time right before the bottom was in.
So, stack accordingly. Thanks for watching, Simply Bitcoin's Satoshi. Don't forget to smash the like button, share the show with your friends, drop a comment below. I read them all. Follow me at Internet Sophie on Twitter, and as always, stack, slay, and stay bullish, baby.
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