저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 미·중 간 지정학·경제 전쟁이 진행 중이며 무역→기술→지정학 영향→자본·경제→군사 순으로 번진다고 주장. 미국의 막대한 부채로 인한 화폐 증발과 인플레이션을 우려하며, 중국의 금 보유(2008년 이후 3배 이상) 확대와 브릭스 연대를 근거로 제시. 미국의 H-1B 비자 수수료 10만 달러 인상 등 견제 조치 소개. 영상 후반은 비트코인을 체제 밖 자산으로 홍보하는 내용이며 스폰서 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
Are we in your judgment in a moment in which the world order is going to change? Yes, we're changing the world order. If you don't know who that is, that's Uncle Ray Ray Ray Dallio, the CEO of Bridgewater, who's been known for analyzing and predicting the economic cycles that the major superpowers of the world are in.
And right now, he believes that the US and China are in the middle of a geopolitical and economic war, one that he's not so sure that the US is going to win. And so, we have a conflict. And there are five kinds of wars. And they start in this order just sequentially typically a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical influence war.
Then you get into a capital and economic warfare which we are now with sanctions. The signs are all there. Earlier this month, President Xi, President Putin, President Modi, and the president of Kazakhstan all stood in solidarity sending a clear message to the US. We will no longer stand aside while you continue to manipulate the world's currency and economic system.
The US dollar hedgeimonyy might be on its last leg and the US knows it. It's urgently trying to create a new system to continue its dominance in the new global world order and Bitcoin is at the center of it. We're going to show you exactly what's happening and what things you need to pay attention to as this global economic war begins.
This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin simply. Let's go. We're in the midst of a changing world order. And how do we know? Are we in your judgment in a moment in which the world order is going to change? Yes, we're changing the world order. Okay. In 1945, we started the new world order. What I mean is over throughout history, there's a fight for control because there's no world court that you go to and plead your case.
And so there's a fight for power. So there's a war and then the winners come out of that war and the winners set the rules. And so 1945, the United States had 80% of the world's money. Gold was money at the time. It had half the world's GDP. It had a monopoly on military power. So the US set the world order.
That's why the United Nations is in New York. Washington DC has the IMF and the World Bank. And its currency became the reserve currency. And its currency became the reserve currency because of that that set of circumstances. Okay? Things evolve, things change, okay, over history. So the three big things that are changing now that haven't occurred in our lifetime is the amount of debt and money creation which affects the value of money and you could see it affecting what's going on every day.
Large debt means the printing of money, right? The large debt puts puts central bankers in a choice. Do you pay it back with hard money or do you pay it back with printed devalued money? And if you pay it back with hard money, it's hard. In other words, that's when you have debt crisises. So in all cases they eventually print money and that produces inflation.
Right? So that dynamics the first and that's the place we are at this moment. There's very little that anyone can say to argue with this. The US raised the debt ceiling back in July because they always raise the debt ceiling because we always hit it. And since then they've already printed uh estimates say $1.5 trillion give or take.
This train will not stop. They have to continue printing money or admit the system's broken. And this has allowed for China to become the global superpower. China has now become a world superpower that rivals the US in terms of economic power. And the third is the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power.
In other words, I I gave you the example of the United States was so dominant in 1945. Now it's not as dominant. It is not dominant. In other words, China and the opposition is as strong as the United States and its allies. And so we have a conflict and there are five kinds of wars and they start in this order just sequentially typically a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical influence war.
Then you get into a capital and economic warfare which we are now with sanctions. They always happened in history and then there's a military war and so you could see that progression happen through time and that creates a template. So I like to look at the template and then plot dots to see how we're transpiring relative to that template.
And China since the great financial crisis has seen the writing on the wall as their gold reserves have more than tripled since 2008. They continue to be the biggest and most active buyer of gold in the world. It's sort of like they know something's wrong with the existing system. And now they're seeking to create alliances with their partners in Russia, with India, and Kazakhstan to make them a global superpower that rivals the West.
They will have the energy resources, the production resources, and the labor resources all within a single geographic region. And therefore this creates the condition as to why they might not need the United States as much. And the US is deciding to fight back geopolitically with its partner the UK which they've already created the Euro dollar with in conjunction with the US dollar to flood the global markets with dollars across the world.
And recently they just signed the USU UK technology pact saying that we will be the global superpower in terms of technology because the United States recognizes that it needs to continue to control the financial center of the world which used to be London and then it's the United States if they can't control all of the production, all of the labor, and all of the energy resources.
The US is also using tactics like putting a $100,000 price tag on H-1B visa workers in order to slow down the economic prosperity of people that are coming from adversarial countries. Thank you, Mr. President. One of the most abused visa systems in our current immigration system has been the H1B, non-immigrant visa program.
This is supposed to allow highly skilled laborers uh who work in fields that Americans don't work in to come into the United States of America. Uh what this uh proclamation will do is raise the fee that companies pay to sponsor H-1B applicants to $100,000. This will ensure that the people they're bringing in are actually very highly skilled and that they're not replaceable by American workers.
So it'll protect American workers, but ensure that companies have a pathway to hire truly extraordinary people and bring them to the United States. We need workers. We need workers. We need great workers. And this pretty much ensures that that's what's going to happen. I think Sean, you agree with that?
Well, there $100,000 per year. So the whole idea is no more will these big tech companies or other big companies train foreign workers. They have to pay the government $100,000. then they have to pay the employee. So, it's just not economic. If you're going to train somebody, you're going to train one of the recent graduates from one of the great universities across our land.
Train Americans. Stop bringing in people to take our jobs. That's the policy here. $100,000 a year for H1B visas. And all of the big companies are on board. We've spoken to them about the gold card. They love it. They really love it. They need it. These are non-kinetic acts of aggression. But make no mistake, this is geopolitical and economic warfare.
Just like Ray Dalio mentions, the US understands it cannot fight tomorrow's war as a global economic superpower without creating a new digital crypto ecosystem, that it can continue to maintain its US dollar hedgeimony beyond what it currently can with the physical system. And this is why Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, believes that Bitcoin is going to hit a million dollars by 2030.
The Genius Act, which passed recently, provided clear rules for crypto stable coins. This was a historic piece of legislation and the Trump administration did an incredible job pushing this forward. Of course, both President Trump himself who said that he wants the United States to be the crypto capital of the world and folks like, you know, Senator Hagerty and David Sax and a number of people came together to pass that.
There's now one more piece of legislation that, as you said, got bipartisan support in the House already and now is being debated in the Senate. And this is what we call market structure legislation, which just simply means it's covering all of the non-stable coin crypto assets, things like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
And it's resolving some of these outstanding issues from the last administration that got weaponized by people like Gary Gendler trying to go after the crypto industry because it wasn't clear were these a commodity, were they a security? So, this legislation is making great progress. I've never been more bullish on the chances to get it passed into law.
This freight train has left the station and and there's people on both sides of the aisle in the Senate that are eager to get this legislation put on the books. Now, this hasn't stopped uh the big bank lobby from coming in trying to throw a wrench into things. They they actually want to go in and ban rewards on stable coins, and that was already settled in the prior Genius Act that I just mentioned.
But I'm not too worried about it. The senators we spoke to aren't really going to entertain reopening that issue. And so hopefully this legislation gets passed into law very soon. Well, listen, this is one of the rare topics that Congress comes together on. And if Bitcoin hits a million dollars by 2030, you're going to wish that you didn't sell that Bitcoin.
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Well, what's going to happen that is also makes Bitcoin a good investment beyond this is the dystopian world that we're moving into. The people manufacturing the new dystopian system even understand that Bitcoin is the only thing outside of the system, hence making it valuable. People like Sam, I'm excited about Bitcoin, too.
But I think this idea that we have a global currency that is outside of the control of any government is a super logical and important step on the tech tree. Bitcoin is beyond the system. And believe me, as we enter into this new economic and geopolitical war, well, governments are going to want more control over the money system that continues to break.
One great example of this is in Vietnam, where the government seized over 86 million accounts, wiping out the funds from the accounts of people who didn't elect to opt in for their new digital ID biometric system. This caused a flood of people who couldn't pay for normal everyday goods to opt into the system.
And not even a month ago in Thailand, the government or the Bank of Thailand froze 3 million accounts, saying that it was looking to crack down on fraud in the system. And in the name of the next crash, major governments and central banks are already talking about central bank digital currencies. Like Christine Lagarde, the leader of the EU central bank, who's talking about research and the next financial crisis in crash as if it's going to happen.
It's just a foregone conclusion. and what they're going to do in response to this next crash, the next financial crisis. And the question mark is intended to express that we're not trying to trigger, to provoke, but to actually do everything we we we can to anticipate, prevent, and examine what the circumstances are that would actually trigger such a a crisis.
And I think we must keep two points in mind when thinking about the topic. First, throughout the post-war era, the global financial system has been in constant transformation and the pace has only accelerated with advances in technology. And second, what appears new often simply reflects old risks except with a different costume and in a different form.
And here I'm reminded of Professor Carmen Rhina and Kenneth Rogoff's and the history of financial crisis. This time is different. The book's subtle subtitle tellingly is not it's different. It says eight centuries of financial folly. After eight centuries of experience, I think it's fair to say that this time it is never different.
And that is why research plays such an important role in helping to safeguard financial stability. If you don't believe the government's intervening with social surveillance systems is going to happen. Well, check out this case in the UK where the police came and knocked on the door of a household of a girl who had viewed something online saying that they needed to seize her phone.
Okay. What we What was it? Sorry, I I don't like the camera. You can have my body cam. I can exhibit that to you. I just don't like the camera really. Okay. Well, I'm doing this because this is my own house and I am telling you why I'm so I just need to know why why why would she's basically viewed a post which is not an arrestable offense.
You just happened in May and you're completely fine. The only thing is we need to seize the phone at this current moment say to you the phone needs to get seized from us otherwise we will escalate this further but with a voluntary interview. So have you seized anyone else? Is she the only child you're picking?
Voluntary interview. that you'll be able to come. Have you spoken to anyone else? No, we'll we'll come to the station now. Do you mind letting finish her sentence before she does have to get further escalated? Unfortunately, that's fine. We'll come to the station now. The phone isn't seized right now and we're not able to basically get the phone.
We have to escalate this further which means your daughter will get arrested. You in the social media post is I need to go with her in order to absolutely not. What can we do to happen of evidence? I'm sorry. That's fine. I would like you to leave now. I'd like you to leave. Okay. I have nothing more to say to you.
Social media post. I've got nothing more to say. I'd like you to leave. You've harassed this child. Enough. I'd like you to leave. The police actually entered this woman's house and confiscated the phone under the threat of future action if she didn't comply. But what actual fight would you have against something like this happening in your country, your place of residence, or where you live if you didn't have anything outside of the existing digital banking system.
And this is why we advocate for the Bitcoin way. They will help you pull your money and your assets out of the existing system so that in the event of something like this happening, well, you'll be prepared. You'll be sovereign over your assets and your generational wealth. schedule a free 30-minute consultation with the team at the bitcoinway.com/simplybitcoin and ask how would I even guard against a situation like this in the future?
Their coaches and their team are going to have some pretty good answers. What hedge do you have against the US no longer being the global hegemonic US dollardriven power that controls everything happening around the world at all times? Well, I have one answer that is seems to be a pretty good hedge in a lot of different scenarios, which is Bitcoin.
And let me break it down. If the United States prints money because a train won't stop, well, you win. If the US can successfully move away from the old fiat dollar rail system that exists today and implement a new crypto digitalbased system, well, you win. If the US is no longer the global dominant power, but there are other global players that are the powers, well, you're going to need a global money.
You win. If the world moves to a dystopian digital ID biometricbased payment system, well, you win. Just a thought. And while you're thinking, you might think about getting your tickets down to the Mining Disrupt Conference happening in Dallas, Texas on November 11th through November 13th. And the conference is called the Mining Disrupt Conference, the largest Bitcoin mining expo in the world.
Get 20% off your tickets by using the promo code Simply Bitcoin. We're entering into a new world and a new dynamic. And the question isn't if it's happening, it's already beginning. But are you prepared? This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin Simply. Happy stacking.
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