저자: DanteCook · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 70K 급등은 소문(백악관 기자의 시장구조법 임박 보도)에 따른 것이며 실질 유동성·입법 호재는 부족하다고 주장. Tom Lee의 3월 바닥·4월 상승 전망은 신뢰하기 어렵다고 평가. 은행들은 스테이블코인 보상이 예금 기반 수익을 잠식하므로 법안 타협에 소극적이고, 이란 전쟁으로 유가·금리 변동성이 커져 4월 돌파는 이르다고 봄. 반감기 4년 주기상 2026년은 약세 해로 제시.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin ripped yesterday. Why? Rumors. A White House reporter floated that the American structure bill was close. That was enough. Bitcoin jumped to 70K immediately. The speculation front ran the legislation. And right on cue, Tom Lee popped up on CNBC saying that the Bitcoin bottom is in in March and we're up in April.
Let's face it. At this point, Tom Lee's predictions are as useless as one-ply toilet paper on diarrhea. But we've seen it before. A headline, a prediction, a bounce in price. The bottom is in. But here's the problem. A rumor isn't liquidity and hope of legislation is not a catalyst. Yes, VanEck CEO says Bitcoin is showing signs of life.
But while crypto Twitter was celebrating a rumor, Jamie Dimon just did an interview to tell you exactly where we are. Banks are telling you they're not ready for a war with Bitcoin while there's a current war raging in Iran that's getting worse by the hour. In this episode, we're going to break it down clearly why a Bitcoin rally in April is premature.
Why Jamie Dimon just told you exactly why the structure market bill won't get passed anytime soon. And despite all this negative news, I'm going to tell you the one signal that could change my mind. Because if Bitcoin is about to run, I want to be ready. But if it's about to go sideways for months, I want you to be positioned for that, too.
This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin Simply. Let's go. all had early weakness, they're all probably in the final stages or have already bottomed. And I think that helps lead us up to an up April. If you woke up in the middle of the night and looked at where Ethereum is and said I I can't go back to sleep.
Love the troll from Joe. That was super clean. But Tom Lee calling this the bottom, that feels early. I'm happy to be wrong. I want to be wrong. But there's nothing in this macro environment that screams April breakout. Right now, the bullish case hinges on one thing. Hope. Hope the market structure bill passes.
Hopes that the banks will make concessions. Hopes that the banks will come to the table. So, the latest is it's passed out of the Senate Ag Committee, the portion dealing with CFTC. We are actively working to get it back on the books for a markup in the Senate Banking Committee. The main issue that's been the sticking point is the stablecoin rewards and yield coming back up in the context of the digital asset service providers, the intermediaries, potentially being able to offer rewards and yield on stablecoins to their customers.
We at the White House have convened a number of meetings over the past month to try and solve this issue and broker a compromise here. Crypto to their credit has made considerable strides in in coming to a compromise position. It's time for the banks to reciprocate and and ultimately strike a deal on this because this is the issue that we believe is the domino that will fall and and ultimately everything will fall into place after that.
This sentiment is good and well, but let me give you a reality check. The banks are not lining up to empower stablecoins. Stablecoins threaten their most profitable layer, deposit settlements and payments. That's the core of their business. And while everybody is debating legislation right now, we're in the middle of a geopolitical escalation.
The 10-year just had its largest one-day move since April of last year. Oil is volatile, risk is elevated right now, the futures are all over the place, and liquidity is cautious. So, if you're running a global bank in this environment, would you want to introduce more systemic change? You don't want to add instability to an already unstable system.
You want to add more control. And Jamie Dimon confirmed this yesterday, not with drama, but with his tone. And the tone matters. You and your peers have reportedly clashed with Coinbase's Brian Armstrong over the Clarity Act and specifically this idea of crypto exchanges offering rewards for stablecoins.
And Armstrong was on CNBC with Sara Eisen a few weeks ago from Mar-a-Lago, and he said there's a path forward for the market structure bill that's a quote win-win outcome for everyone. How are you feeling about it right now? Yeah, so the the banks feel strongly that there should be you know, rewards are the same as interest, and that you know, compromise would be that you could pay rewards on transactions, not balances.
If you were going to be holding balances and paying interest, that's a bank, you should be regulated by a bank. So, we've been firm. One thing over here, yes, but if you want to be a bank, become a bank. Then you can do whatever you want under bank laws. So, I remind people and your your viewers may not know, banks have restrictions and requirements.
FDIC insurance, AML, BSA, we have Community Reinvestment Act, which means we have to open 25% of all my neighbors with social requirements. We have liquidity requirements, capital requirements, transparency requirements, reporting requirements, board requirements, government requirements. If they want to be a bank, so be it.
So, what we base is level playing field by product. It can't be you have these people doing one thing, you know, without any regulation like that, and these people do another. And if you do do that, the public will pay. It will it will get bad. So, I just People should take a deep breath and what is you want to that and we want competition.
You know, we're actually one of the biggest users of blockchain. And you know, and you know, we created the digital currency deposit coin. We've moved money, real-time payments, you know, we're moving a lot of data now using blockchain. So, we're in favor of competition, but it's got to be fair and balanced level playing field.
It's not It can't be completely skewed. And the rest of For the safety of the system, not just the fairness of competition. Right, to your point about FDIC insurance. Well, AML, what about you know, they you know, we have I say you know, we we yeah, we have money laundering requirements, reporting requirements, you know, uh uh which I think is good, you know, to some extent is good because you want a safe financial system as best as you can make it.
If you appreciate this kind of signal over the noise, then do subscribe. We're not here for hopium. We're here to understand what actually moves Bitcoin. Let's get back to the show. Now, listen to what Jamie Dimon said. If you want the same privileges as banks, well, become a bank. Sounds simple. Bitcoiners tried it.
Caitlin Long did exactly that. She launched Custodia Bank, fully chartered in Wyoming as a special purpose depository institution. 100% reserves, no rehypothecation. The system Custodia Bank was designed to bridge crypto and Bitcoin and the traditional banking system. And they applied for a Federal Reserve master account at the end of 2022.
The same access system that traditional banks rely on for settlement. And in 2023, the Federal Reserve denied it, flat out. So when Jamie Dimon says just start a bank, they did. And the system said no. This tells you something about Bitcoin and why the banks fear it. This isn't about equal access or better payments or a better system for you the consumer.
This is about control. As recently as October of 2025, Custodia was still fighting for the rights to become a bank. They were basically denied again by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank and the 10th Circuit judge. Stablecoins threaten deposits and Bitcoin threatens our monopoly. You don't introduce something that cannibalizes that, especially during a geopolitical crisis.
And what we're seeing coming out in private credit markets, to which no one's really talking about. So when I hear the banks are going to come to the table, why would they? The incentives don't line up. And until they do, legislation will not ignite a sustained rally, especially a rumor of legislation.
The Fed and the regional banks are autonomous entities that are not elected and that we don't have any control over. They're private corporations. And here's why they won't allow other banks in. Uh one of the things that that folks have said for years about the Fed is that it has an unusual structure, which it does.
The federal agency is the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. and then there are 12 private corporations. The the regional reserve banks. And so it's a hybrid from that perspective, but the federal there's no question that the that the agency in Washington, D.C. is a federal agency subject to the Freedom of Information Act, subject to the Administrative Procedure Act, all of those acts that apply to federal agencies.
The Reserve Banks are private corporations and their boards are controlled by the banking industry. And if the presidents of Reserve Banks are doing official US government business, the question is have they been properly appointed under the US Constitution's Appointments Clause, which requires that the president nominate and Senate confirm the principal officers of the United States and that there has to be when administrative decisions are made, when when US government decisions are made, there has to be a nexus to a presidentially appointed, Senate confirmed officer.
But there is not that nexus in the case of the Federal Reserve Banks, the 12 privately owned. Their boards are controlled by the banking, by the private sector. One of the ways that you can become your own bank and not rely on the Federal Reserve Banks is by using a company like Ledn that will allow you to borrow against the Bitcoin that you've been stacking over the course of the year since you subscribed to this channel and you know where the real value lies.
Ledn will allow you to borrow up to 50% loan to value against your Bitcoin with no credit check starting at just 12.4%. The dollars will get into your account in less than 6 hours. The application takes just 2 minutes and it's either you have the Bitcoin or you don't. Post the Bitcoin as collateral and your Bitcoin isn't rehypothecated.
You can see it on an address directly in the platform. Go to learn.ledn.io/simply to get started. Back to Caitlin Long for a second. There is corruption all throughout Washington and Wall Street. The question isn't whether there is corruption, the question is where is it worse? Listen to Caitlin Clark talking about the levels of corruption running through the system.
I used to think Wall Street was was the unethical one. I actually think Washington D.C. is more so. Some of the most, literally the most unethical people I've come across with come across have been on this recent journey with having been an applicant at the Federal Reserve and the more I learn about what happened and again it's not the people on the ground, it's the people in the higher-up space, the more I learned about what happened, the more I realized rules for thee and not for me.
We we submitted a Inspector General complaint, and we know that that went into the circular file. And there's a problem because when the Inspector General, which is kind of like an internal audit function for these agencies, when the Inspector General reports to the people they're supposed to be investigating, what do you think happens?
It's like investigate yourself, please. Find the wrongdoer. up system. It's a it's a screwed up corrupt, small-c corrupt system. Yeah, and it needs to be fixed. But, as we're just talking about, one of the easiest ways to protect yourself and and help yourself opt out is to own is to be a first-rate, first-class Bitcoin citizen.
Own actual on-chain Bitcoin that you self-custody and run a full node so you do not have to trust anyone else. And you can you can confirm that you own your assets, and when you transact with them, that they are you're transacting with real on-chain base layer Bitcoin, and you're not even relying on somebody's block explorer to confirm that your transaction went through so that you don't get man-in-the-middle attacked.
That's what you do to to opt out of The only real opportunity to avoid the corruption in the system, as she says, is to run your own node. And you can do that by working with one of our team and our partners at The Bitcoin Way. They'll teach you how to run your own node privately, safely, and securely so that you can become your own bank, just like what Caitlin Long and Custodia Bank was trying to do.
Schedule a free 30-minute consultation with their team at the the hype from this one-day move, I do think that we're actually forming a bottom. The rally did show something. We didn't see panic liquidation like we've seen earlier this year. The weak hands are sort of out of the system. Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by the The things you know about Bitcoin, limited supply at 21 million and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every 4 years.
There's been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up 3 years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So, that's why we're in a crypto bear Bitcoin bear market, excuse me. So, I I don't think we can over complicate I think we can over complicate it. Now, I think we're making a bottom and this is a very nice sign of life.
Um so, yeah. The selling pressure looks tired and that does matter. But, here's why I don't think that we rally. Let me give you one point in case. Since this war in Iran started, gas prices in the UK have risen 93%. So, what does that mean? A drag on the economy and a drag on the consumer. This is just in the UK, but this ripple will go throughout the world.
We need oil, we need raw commodities. And right now, LNG is in hard supply. Right now, oil is in tight supply. Rates react when this happens and risk appetites shrink. That's not the environment where more capital flows into a market. Bitcoin's true vertical phase doesn't happen when a bill passes. It happens when trust breaks in the system.
When people completely stop trusting institutions, when they stop trusting banks, when they stop trusting political leadership, that's when they opt into something else. That isn't a trade, that's an exit. That's when people choose the digital nation they align with and not the passport that they were handed when they were born.
Western civilization's over. Uh America's over. Western Europe as we know it is over, but the internet is just beginning. If tax revenue is a few trillion a year, but compounding debt is at 175 trillion a year, obviously it's unsustainable. It's going to go to zero. But, is taking the L then admitting this and and allowing the separation to happen?
Taking the L is admitting that that you you can't throw good money after bad. You can't also throw your spiritual energy behind a lost cause. Instead, when you write it off and write it to zero, the West is going to zero, America is going to zero as we know it, right? Then you say, "What can we rebuild?" Much more important than allocation is location.
Choose your location. Just like the poll came to the UK, maybe the Brit goes to Poland or to Dubai, which a lot have done. One of the best things you can do is liquidate, immigrate, accelerate, and reduce your cost structure. AI isn't taking your job. AI is turning you into the CEO. When trust collapses, ideology replaces geography.
I do agree with Balaji on this point. And that's when Bitcoin stops grinding. It re-prices instantly. We are not there yet, but when the move comes, Bitcoin is not going to ask for your permission or whether you're on board the train. And that's why we try to give you so many ways to be involved in Bitcoin.
Because the question is not whether you're watching this channel or whether you subscribe to the channel, but whether you're participating in the network. And we try to give you multiple ways to do that. Becoming sovereign, becoming your own bank, and also stacking Bitcoin while you sleep through a partner like Saz Mining.
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Outsource it to the professionals at Saz Mining. Use the QR code to get started. This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin Simply. The rally's not here, but that doesn't mean that you should stop stacking. Happy stacking.
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