저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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Mark Mobius는 신흥시장 투자 경력 40년 이상의 베테랑으로, 최근 Mobius Capital Partners에서 물러나 두바이 기반 신규 프로젝트를 준비 중이라고 밝혔다. 주요 관심 분야는 AI와 기술을 활용해 수익성과 효율을 높이는 기업이며, 인도는 디지털화의 가장 좋은 사례로 꼽았다. 아직 특정 인도 AI 기업을 찾지는 못했다고 말했다. 중국 투자에는 신중한 입장으로, 중국 내수 부진으로 자금이 인도로 이동하고 있으며 포트폴리오 및 민간 투자 모두 증가 중이라고 설명했다. 인도 밸류에이션에 대해서는 PER이나 PBR보다 투자수익률(ROI)을 중시하며, 고ROI 기업이 많다는 점에서 우려하지 않는다고 했다. 인도 투자 확대 전망으로 뮤추얼펀드와 ETF의 성장을 예상했다. 인도 개인의 뮤추얼펀드 계좌는 약 1,600만 개로 인구의 11% 미만이지만 향후 1~2년 내 빠르게 성장할 것이라 보았다. 인도 정부의 디지털화, 특히 신원 확인 체계 도입이 가장 큰 변화이며 이를 높이 평가했다. 여행·관광 분야를 유망하게 보며, 인도 역사 유적지에 내국인 방문객이 많다는 점을 근거로 들었다. 2024년 글로벌 시장은 인플레이션 둔화로 양호할 것으로 전망했으나, 유동성 축소 위험을 경고했다. 금리와 주가는 직접적 상관관계가 없으며 미국 경제 성장이 더 중요하다고 강조했다. 인도 인구의 약 30%가 15~25세인 점을 들어 젊은 소비층의 성장 잠재력을 강조했다. 신간 'The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation'에서는 기술로 인해 실질적으로 디플레이션 환경이 진행 중이라고 주장했다. 마지막으로 과거 제시한 5년 내 센섹스 10만 목표는 유지하되 더 높이지는 않겠다고 언급했고, 현재 센섹스는 약 66,000 수준이라고 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
Emerging Market Investments for over four decades and uh Mark thanks a lot for joining in always great speaking with you uh you know you recently stepped down from your position at mobus Capital Partners I didn't get a chance to congratulate you on your new Journey so congratulations on that uh you stated that you plan to work on new projects in Dubai so what would your focus area be in your new capacity well actually the base is Dubai but it's going to be Global Emerging Markets again but the focus will be more on technology we're looking at companies and situations and areas where AI is being used more extensively and the entire digitization of the economies around the world particularly Emerging Markets is very important and of course India is probably the best example of that uh so are there any Tech focused uh AI companies in India which have caught your fancy so far uh not yet we haven't identified any specific candidates but we're looking very hard not only in India but globally it's important to remember that uh it when we say Tech it doesn't necessarily mean a technology company per se in other words a semiconductor company or a PC company but companies that use technology to improve their profitability and their efficiency and that's where AI comes in okay that's amazing we'll come back to AI in a bit but recently Mark you did tweet your cautious stance on on investments in the China Market as well you spoke about how the domestic Market in China is struggling a bit does that mean that more money will flow into India versus China over the next 12 to 18 months well it's already happening if you look at the numbers you see flows of money coming into India have been quite substantial and are increasing uh and that includes not only portfolio investment but also private investment so India is going to be getting a lot of money that normally would have gone to China uh of course there will be investors who will want to go into China and keep investments in China but India is going to be the beneficiary of this trend uh Mark you've always been bullish about India excited about its tremendous potential but are you concerned about the valuations uh no not really because what we focus on is not necessarily uh the price earnings ratio or The Price to Book value ratio but we're looking at return on investment and it's amazing when we do scans of the Indian market how many companies have a high return on investment which is a good indicator of growth prospects because if you have a high return investment you have a lot of money to reinvest and grow so this is a quite a very interesting phenomenon that we've seen coming back to your focus area which is uh you know technology and artificial intelligence you know that's a broad umbrella right Mark there's so many spaces in which AI is used uh nowadays Healthcare engineering infrastructure uh what do you believe will be the next growth area under this umbrella itself well you absolutely right it's a broad area um and you look at things like blockchain again it's used in every industry now um but I would say at the beginning the companies in which we would be most interested in would be those in the software area companies that are actually developing AI um tools that companies can use so that would be probably be the first Focus but soon after that we will move down into companies that actually using Ai and increasing their profitability as a result uh so globally which would be the best example I'm not saying you've invested in a stock like that but which would be uh the prime example of a company that you would like like one which is generally you know manufacturing AI tools for the world well probably uh one of the best examples from a Global Perspective would be uh companies that are in the consumer area and using distribution patterns to an AI to improve their distribution and their customer base and probably the very best example globally would be Amazon Amazon is using Ai and all kinds of other digitization tools to improve uh their Investments and also to improve what companies and products they should be focused on for their customers uh you know recently you mark you put out a tweet where you said that you envision the investment landscape in India evolving to mirror that of the US and that's a tall statement because you say that there is a there will be a balance between active and passive strategies and you foresee mut mutual funds and ETFs gaining substantial traction now if you look at our market right I mean out of 144 CR people that we have in India they barely 16 CR people that have mutual fund folios at the moment which is not even 11% of the Indian population in in investing in mutual funds currently what do you see as the scope of growth um in passive investing over the next one to two years it's going to be very very rapid because more and more Indians are aware of the opportunities in the stock market in the bond market and you're going to find an incredible growth uh in my recent visit to India I was by the way in India for about a month this last month visiting Seven Cities Al together and it was amazing to see the growth and interests and equities among the population so I think this is going to be a big big growth area and some of the companies we visited were doing this they were serving retail clients with a portfolio of index funds and actively managed funds so I see this as a pattern which will be the pattern that we've seen in the US will be duplicated in India so when we talk about India's tremendous potential one of course is this rapid financialization that we're seeing um in your you know tours of India over the last four decades um can you tell us what has changed what is it that exites you the most enthus enthuses you the most in terms of the progress that we've made which makes you bullish on the markets and the economy uh probably the biggest change and the biggest mover for India has been uh the adoption of Technology by the government the digitization of the government services uh of course starting with the identity card but then moving into so many areas which has made uh government more efficient and has made the individual Indian citizen aware of the opportunities that in technology for them in their own life so I think this has been an incredible journey and of course I think Mr Modi has to take responsibility and credit for this change it's quite a c change it's something that is quite remarkable okay that's interesting so the adoption of digitization by the government which has been a big FOC area something that continues to be of interest to you where else do your interests lie in the Indian market Mark over the next say 12 to 18 months I'm very interested in the uh uh travel and tourism area because in my trip recently to India uh all the sites all the historic sites were packed with Indians we were the few foreigners U Avail there I'm sure more foreigners will be coming but it's the Indians are now really having the money and the eagerness to visit their historic sites and tourism sites and this is a big big growth area I believe uh just um you know zooming out a little bit how do you see the environment for Global markets next year we've seen yields school off crew prices have also climbed down now this year was one of the best years for the United States we had the S&P 500 rallying you know 20% the has gain 35% what kind of a global environment do you invisage next year 2024 I think it's going to be pretty good because you're seeing inflation coming down pretty rapidly um and interest rates of course will follow and are following uh so uh the the market should be in a pretty sweet spot for that reason however it's important to note that with a too much a decline in money supply of course markets sometimes suffer for the lack of liquidity so that's something we have to look at but I would think that we're looking at a pretty good year uh coming in in the markets it's going to be very interesting and I think exciting standing if uh the possibility of no F Fed rate Cuts because the street is right now penciling in uh the FED Cuts rates which will be positive for equities globally what if that scenario doesn't play out well you know it's very important to remember that there's no direct correlation between interest rates and the market sometimes the interest rates go up and the market goes down sometimes interest rates go down and the market goes you know it's it's not a direct correlation so U given that situation we have to look at other factors and the other factor in the US is of course the economy the growth of the economy oddly enough with all the challenges China Ukraine uh every other challenge you could think of globally uh the US actually becomes more active industry tends to benefit from these kinds of changes so we're seeing employment at high levels and the economy doing very well even in this very difficult political environment so I think this is going to continue into next year I do want your thoughts on also how India is one of the youngest econom right across the globe I mean if you look at uh gen Z as we call it 30% of India's population is in this age bracket of 15 to 25 years and they will be the next big consumers um what do you see or rather how do you see the consumption pattern evolve and as an investor how would you capitalize on this well that's the key the key is the Youth of the Indian population that's really very exciting not not only for India but for the Globe because it means that companies around the globe will be targeting India as their next big market so this is going to be very very exciting going forward and one of the reasons why you're going to see much more uh investment in India is because of that companies around the world will want to take advantage of this young population who are getting richer and are ambitious want to work and want to play want to spend this is all very exciting okay Mark uh just one question from my end your new book is out the inflation myth and the wonderful world of deflation uh can you tell us the core thesis behind this book yes well I wrote the book because I found that the inflation statistics were not very accurate that's first thing but also wanted to point out to people that technology is like actually making things cheaper now in currency terms uh things look like they're getting more expensive but if you look at the Quality quantity and availability of Hightech uh products products that are being impacted by technology you'll see that life is getting much much better and we are actually in a deflationary environment of course economists hate the word deflation but that's actually what it is so finally Mark you want to advance your target you had the last last time we spoke you at a sensex target of I think 1 lakh in the next 5 years we're already at 66,000 do you want to you know speed it up a little bit I think I'll stick to that I I don't want to go much higher than that at least at this days ask me next month all right always great speaking to you mark have a great time in Dubai and congratulations once again on your new Venture uh we hope to speak to you again very soon well that's veteran investor Mark Mobius very very optimistic he's been an eternal optimist on the Indian markets and continues to do so let's slip into a short break on the other side Bajaj Auto will be in Focus the stock is trading at a record high we'll get you all the latest updates from our conversation with Rajiv bajad stay tuned
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