저자: MatthewCrowder · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 역대 최악 투자 사례를 나열한 교육용 영상이다. 결론은 최악의 투자는 1951년 21세 때 산 주유소로, 본인 순자산의 20%를 잃었다는 것이다. 버핏의 최악 투자 후보와 평가: 버크셔 해서웨이(섬유회사, 1962년 매입 후 보험사로 전환해 성공, 최악 아님), 코노코필립스(2008년 고점 매입, 약 20억 달러 손실로 실수 인정), 덱스터 슈즈(1993년 4.33억 달러, 버크셔 주식으로 지불, 기회비용 약 70억 달러로 추정). 최악 투자는 1951년 오마하 신카(Sinclair) 주유소로, 2,000달러를 투자해 전액 잃었으며 당시 순자산 10,000달러의 20%에 해당한다. 맞은편 텍사코 주유소와 경쟁에서 고객 충성도 차이로 밀렸다. 교훈으로 경쟁우위(해자)의 중요성, 현금 지불 원칙, 수동적 투자 성향이 강조된다. 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
hi this is Matthew Crowder from trader University and today I want to answer the question what was Warren Buffett's worst investment ever if you're interested in learning what works in the stock market today how to make money in both bull and bear markets be sure to hit that subscribe button and I should start by saying that I don't mean any disrespect to Warren Buffett by asking this question he's clearly one of the greatest investors of all time but I think we can all learn not only from our own investment mistakes but also from other people's investment mistakes also really smart people so Buffett if you ask people this question you'll get a few answers but usually will not get the real answer if any of you know of an investment that he's made that is worse than though the ones I talked about you can drop him in the comments below so if you ask people to question what was Buffett's worst investment ever some people will say Berkshire Hathaway now you may know that Berkshire Hathaway was a textile company in in New England that Buffett started buying in 1962 and this was the point in American history when a lot of the textile business was already beginning to leave New England and going overseas and so it was not he bought it for very cheap it was not a good investment and but he was able to turn it around in a very smart way he was able to use the cash flows from the business and partially liquidating the business to start investing in insurance companies Berkshire first bought a national indemnity company and then later it bought it bought Geico so Berkshire Hathaway this failing this failing textile business became was warped into the holding company that really made Buffett the billionaire that he is today so this wasn't but this was a big investment mistake it was a declining business but ironically it was one of the great he turned he basically made lemonade out of lemons so I would say this was definitely not the worst investment ever though it did take him many many years it took him over he started buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway in 1962 and he finally shut down the textile operation piece over 20 years later 1985 at this point Buffett was already very famous and well-known so that would be the first candidate I don't think that's a good candidate first worst investments mistake ever because it was actually quite brilliant the way he got himself out of it a lot of people would say ConocoPhillips now ConocoPhillips obviously an energy company oil company that Buffett bought when oil was at its peak in in 2008 Buffett was buying Conoco right about here big big mistake as he's admitted to his investors if you take a look at the 2008 Berkshire Hathaway letter that he wrote for his investors which I'll link to below you can see that he confesses without urging from Charlie Charlie Munger anyone else I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak i knowwe anticipate the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year so he lost a couple billion dollars in this I think when when all was said and done maybe about two billion dollars it's a little bit complicated because Conoco spun off Phillips and then Buffett did a stock exchange with his phillips stock for another piece of phillips i don't want to really go into the details but it was definitely a multi billion dollar loss and i find it comforting that even someone like buffett would buy at the peak this was when a lot of people were saying we're entering peak oil that oil would go up in price forever it looks like buffett got sucked into this as well as well as under estimating the cyclic ality of an oil company's earnings there Pease look very low when their earnings are very high and then ironically oil companies there they'll often trade a very high p/e s when just because when oil prices are low their earnings are low and so they look expensive when they're cheap and they look cheap when they're expensive I'm sure Buffett knew this but nevertheless he made a big mistake and he's always been very candid about about admitting these these admitting this mistakes so I think this is definitely up there I would say it's not the not as worst investment mistake though next we have 1993 famous investment Buffett bought Dexter shoes a shoe making company for 433 million dollars now the problem the the worst thing about this investment was that he did not pay cash Berkshire did not pay cash for Dexter shoes they actually exchanged Berkshire stock they paid with it for stock this was very success a very unsuccessful obviously shoe manufacturing went overseas in the same way textile manufacturing did in 2001 which ironically was the same year that China entered the WTO and obviously was where we've outsourced the majority of our manufacturing capacity Buffett folded it into another shoe unit in Berkshire Hathaway at this point these these manufacturing companies were obviously a very small part of Buffett's portfolio didn't really matter but there was a huge opportunity cost to this which Buffett discussed in his 2008 letter where he said that today Dexter's the worst deal that I've made we'll see that he actually did a worst worse investment in the next part of the the video but basically he gave away 1.6 percent of Berkshire shares the value of the company to buy dexter shoes and so today Berkshire Hathaway has a market cap of about 449 450 billion and so if you take 1.6 percent of that that he basically spent in current dollars in current market cap of Berkshire in terms of the opportunity cost he spent about 7 billion dollars on a failing shoe company now what are the lessons to be learned from this no sustainable competitive advantage no moat there was nothing special about these these shoes I don't even remember the brand I don't know what they traded at but they sold for under retail but it was a it wasn't a Nike type of type of company and so this was this was a huge loss this was much bigger than ConocoPhillips a loss of about 7 billion in terms of opportunity cost an opportunity cost is obviously where you were you miss out on one opportunity because you're invested in another one and so this was obviously a very expensive mistake I can show you where he exchanged his berkshire shares for dexter shoes it was right about here when berkshire was still about I'd say about twelve thirteen thousand dollars a share currently at seventy two hundred seventy six thousand dollars a share so moral of this is if you're a great investor you probably should should really pay cash for your investments rather than exchanging the stock of your holding company especially if you're an investor like Buffett or that you think the the underlying stock is going to go up blood perhaps he in the early nineties he thought Berkshire Hathaway was overvalued and so he was willing to part with it but he as he himself has said this was a long term mistake finally we will move on to Buffett's what I think it's his worst investment ever I'm taking this from how the Shorter's book which is really the definitive biography above a great book called the snowball which talks about that uses the metaphor of accumulating wealth it's like rolling a snowball that you roll every day and you get these compounding effects it's a very long book but definitely worth reading I still enjoy dipping into it so I'm taking this from from this book his worst investment ever was a Sinclair gas station these are all over we have them in Colorado you can see the map you probably have one have one near you they're mostly mostly in the middle of the country and on the west coast not as many in the south and not as many on the east coast though they do seem to be clustered around Washington DC and the New York metro area what happened was Buffett bought this bought a gas station in Omaha when he was 21 years old in 1951 he went in on it with his friend from the National Guard Jim Schaffer and this turned out to be his worst loss ever first of all Buffett was notorious for saying how he hated manual labor he did have a paper route he did work very hard when he was young to try to accumulate capital but this really confirmed to him that he did not like working with his hands he would work I think he had a number of other jobs during the week but on the weekends he would work at this gas station and he would actually wash people's windshields can you imagine being able to think back and think that Warren washed your windshield when you were pumping the problem with his investment was that there was a Texaco gas station across the street that in his words consistently outsold them the owner of this Texaco gas station there's a Buffett's words from the snowball the owner is very well established and very well liked he beat us every month that's when I learned the power of customer loyalty the guy had been in business forever and had a clientele nothing we could do was going to change that obviously at Omaha still a fairly small town today a very small town back then and so they were basically Buffett was going up against going up against a really well-established business and I think this is something that's taught him really two lessons the power of a competitive advantage or moat in terms of customer loyalty you don't want to open up a business that for whatever reason cannot compete with a business a nearby business and it doesn't matter what price you pay for the gas station if you're going up against another gas station that has a moat or an investment moat or competitive advantage you're going to get in trouble so it turns out that he paid in 19 1951 Buffett paid $2,000 for this gas station that was his part I guess his friend paid paid some other money but as Buffett tells us he lost all $2,000 at the time he was 21 years old he had a net worth of $10,000 so this was really the biggest loss for him of all time he lost 20 percent of his net worth and right as he was entering entering manhood becoming an adult it must have been quite humiliating he he had to do he had to wash people's windshields and the business still went under and he lost 20% of his net worth to put that in perspective 20% of his net worth today if you take 20% of Berkshires Berkshires his holdings in Berkshire it's about 14 or 15 billion dollars and I would say that the other thing that this really helped Buffett realize is that he prefer he was a brainiac and still is a brainiac he preferred a more passive approach to his investments and so he has this policy when he buys a company he tries to buy it with very good management he doesn't bring in his own guys and obviously he doesn't want to be washing windshields anymore or doing anything like this so I think this helped him to realize two things one that a more passive approach really fit with his personality too you really have to think about the competitive dynamics of an industry and this is something we can all learn from to put this loss in perspective I'm not sure how accurate this calculator is but it probably is good for to the order of magnitude $2,000 in 1951 $2,000 1950 $1 translated into 20 $20 is approximately 20 $21,000 so not too bad for 21 year old to have $100,000 net worth in today's dollars but you can imagine that there was much as much more difficult to become rich back then today we have the internet you have all these guys who are 18 20 21 who become billionaires were kind of used to that but back in the days when you had to do increase your net worth by buying industrial companies or buying real businesses like gas stations losing 20 percent of your net worth 20% of your investable capital must have been must have been quite difficult so I think this qualifies really has more in Buffett's worst investment ever as a 21 year old he was still much smarter than I was as a 21 year old all right as I probably am today so hope you guys enjoyed this if he did hit the subscribe and like button hope you guys have a good weekend and let me know your questions comments and comments section below thanks a lot for listening and I'll see you in the next video
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