저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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Raamdeo Agrawal는 현재 시장 조정을 교과서적인 강세장의 일부로 보며, 단기 방향은 예측이 어렵지만 조정은 건강한 과정이라고 평가함. 시장 전망: 현재 IPO 시장 과열과 높은 거래량은 강세장의 전형이며, 주가가 경제 상황보다 앞서가는 괴리는 건강한 조정으로 해소될 것으로 봄. 과거 1992년 같은 대형 강세장과 비교해 이번 강세장의 진원지(epicenter)는 아직 알 수 없으며, 유동성·모멘텀·리테일 투자자 유입이 특징이라고 설명함. 신규 기술주 및 적자 기업: 이익 기반이 아닌 밸류에이션은 어떤 스토리로도 정당화될 수 있어 위험하다고 봄. 이익이 없는 기업의 상장 허용 등 규제 변화로 다양한 스토리 종목이 쏟아질 것으로 우려함. 공기업(PSU): 관료 조직은 주식시장 기대와 무관하게 움직여 예측가능성이 낮아 공기업에 대해 신중한 입장을 유지해 옴. 회사 실적: 리테일 중심 브로커리지 사업은 월 10만 신규 고객 온보딩으로 활동이 역대 최고 수준이며, 하반기 영업이익도 상반기와 유사하거나 더 나을 것으로 전망. 투자은행·사모투자·자산관리 사업도 개선 기대. 홈파이낸스는 대출 집행이 크게 늘고 연체·신용비용 감소로 하반기 이익 개선을 예상. 장기 테마: 인도 은행 전반의 신용비용 사이클 역전이 핵심 테마이며, 이것이 없다면 인도에 투자 스토리가 없다고 언급. 브로커리지 시장은 향후 5~6년간 참여자 수가 지수적으로 증가할 것으로 봄. 리스크: 원자재 가격 상승과 금리 인상이 2003~2008년처럼 주식 상승으로 이어질지는 단순하지 않으며, 강세장의 속도와 방향은 예측하기 어렵다는 입장.
다듬은 글
great to have you here thanks very much you know we'll uh get to the numbers uh which look uh very very strong in just a bit but you'd understand we want your thoughts on the market first uh with what's going on uh naturally hi hi what what's your sense uh we're down what five five and a half percent now from the highs uh your thoughts here and now so uh you know uh corrections are part of a classic bull market and uh actually this is a absolutely textbook bull market which we are in now uh it is very difficult to predict every day every week every month uh but uh the facts i mean the evidences are clearly you know like a very very super hot ipo market super hot hot volumes in the marketplace and uh i mean even the broken wizard like ours is so much you know super related so clearly these are the you know kind size of heated thing but you know the party can be very very long and very very large i mean you cannot you cannot put a finger there saying that okay uh now i feel like it's very hard so of course this calls for correction clearly nothing can be done in one straight line uh in excessive fashion but it calls for a good correction if economics are opening more so there's a disconnect between what is the state of economy today and the stock market clearly stock market is moving ahead of the economy and economy is expected to you know kind of uh blossom uh post covet in next 12 18 months or to two years so i think uh it is very difficult to correlate the economic development with the what is happening in the stock market and at ties markets to excesses so that's what is there right now i think we are we need a healthy connection which is on right now ramdev hi good morning happy diwali to you in advance to you and your entire team actually at motilal oswal it has been a very very good year for everyone but i wanted your thoughts on the big news of the day which is irctc and you know the larger message from what the government has done this time around would you be cautious on psus as a whole or do you think that this is just a sort of a one stock issue no we have been cautious right from beginning because of uh you know the the thinking in bureaucracy is disconnected to the stock market they're not they're not running the companies or the departments to please the stock market though they are listed in the stock market so that's uh uh they have a kind of a very different incentive or agenda at times so that makes it difficult many times because ultimately what you're buying is the future of the company in a predictable fashion and if you make the future unpredictable then i don't know how to access the value it becomes like a cyclical or something a single digit multiple kind of thing and that's what markets have done so we have to make if you are listed to the extent it is possible in your own hands you have to make the business look more predictable uh more reliable that's the whole game and that's where i think uh if it is the ownership is disconnected with the incentive to see evaluation uh to be reasonable i think uh the problems come rando good morning seasons greetings to you soon to be here you know i i'm going back to the first statement that you made that this is a classic textbook style book bull market but i want to ask you this that uh you know like in the nature of a bull market i guess the markets also ignored a lot of things for instance uh rising commodity costs even central bankers keep telling us it's transient it's transient now we'll see how that plays out but is that a risk that the market has ignored is it too simplistic to assume that this will be a repeat of 2003 to 2008 where interest rates went up commodities went up equities everything went up is it going to be the same or will that be too simplistic of you to take yeah markets will go up that is for sure but why it will go up how it will go up and what will be the pace you know like if you see i have seen four bull markets one the mother of all the bull market was 1992 in harsham at the time so market went up by seven times in 19 months from 700 to 4200 that was that's why nobody wants to forget because that cannot be repeated that nothing can be said impossible but it is almost impossible to repeat six x markets in two years so that's the kind of good market we had then y2k it was a completely central uh uh take over that kind of marketing note everything else 2007 was gfc credit expansion global so it was again a different one i'm quite sure the next this current bull market has a very the epic center is and the story is going to be very different that will come to know only after the good market is over but right now liquidity and momentum and optimism and positive outlook all sorts of positive outlook uh the codes of retail investors coming in millions every month i think those are the defining moments and hence since the structure of the bulldog is very different uh liquidity cost of liquidity collapse of its income uh entry of uh large number of retail investors so the character of the market will be very different okay you know i i think i'll remember this line uh for many many years to come that we'll only know the epicenter of the bull market long after it's over and i think that's the wisdom that you always bring to us down there i'm just trying to second guess things here is the epicenter of this bull market actually in these new age technology you know consumer tech sort of stocks could that be the epicenter at all because that's the hardest thing to evaluate and assess because that's where traditional valuation tools are not working many of these companies are not even profit-making typically i mean that's the one because what you need is uh imaginative valuation you know when you have a uh fact-based renovation you can go only that far i mean you can get 20p 30p 40p but if you don't have earnings only then you can you can write any story you know any valuation can be justified if the valuation is not based on earnings so uh that's what really happens and that's why what happens is if the story is not based on earnings you see hundreds of new companies coming in and now cb has also allowed uh the you know listing of the companies those who are not making profit that's a basic change so you will see all kinds of exotic stories and uh and then people pile let's talk a little bit about the earnings now then uh you know this quarter the company has been firing on almost all fronts big gains in your fund-based activities there is a hundred crore dividend that you've seen as well i wanted to understand going forward in the second half of the fiscal where do you see the big growth triggers for the company so what is that i think when i was sitting in the board buddy what i saw was the operating earnings are very strong and i don't see operating earnings breaking down because ours is a retail in business uh it is 80 retail business so uh i am still saying every month onboarding of 100 000 customers and so i think the activity level is record high uh you know even the current month is larger than last month so we are going we are in the classic momentum phase in terms of uh investors participation in the marketplace so i think second half looks to be as promising if not more than the first half in terms of operating earnings mark to market uh halfway in this business in this uh current quarter uh about 300 270 265 crosses operating profit and another 265 70 crosses uh mark to market so uh the first half that 300 was operating profit i see that repeating uh per quarter in the maybe even larger in the second half mark to market is anybody's call you know how the markets behave and uh what happens to a lot of exits in the private equity uh so that uh nobody can predict uh apart from the broking business which of course is firing on all cylinders uh which other business are you most excited about uh which other line of business are you most excited about in terms of growth from here yeah so i think investment banking business is very uh i would say it was just about picking up in the first half second half we expect major gains in the deal completions so we will see quite a coming out there then uh we are talking about wealth management business doing very well uh the private equity is mobilizing a lot of money in this quarter so the business activity became over there and uh the deal momentum is very high in private equity so every business uh apart from uh i mean of course is uh driving the uh the commission revenues so i don't see in any business uh kind of a slow down right now and that's the nature of the market everything is synchronized so if booking is doing well everything else is also doing well but some of the businesses which are lagging like high banking and all they will pick up in a meaningful way in the second half ramdev on broking itself i mean what's going to be the future of the business of course it's done phenomenally well this quarter no taking away from that but in an era where you know we've seen the rise of discount brokers and everything is a platform tech app based investors are experimenting with a lot of new things like you know small case and things like that what's the future of broking given the profile age and nature of new traders slash investors coming in so we first look at the what are the size opportunity you know till now we have done business with only 50 million customers in india i think if there are 800 billion bank accounts there is no reason why we should not have half a billion uh demand accounts you know 500 million now it's not going to happen tomorrow but for the next 5-6 years i see the number of participants going exponentially up so so then the market size just explodes because it is not so it's a very you know exponential kind of situation and uh yeah so working opportunity is very large now within that there is a there is a what you said is right there is a lot of value has migrated to the to the new edge discount brokers uh and digital brokers and they have they have done a very good job of reaching out to the customers and expanding the market but ultimately people come here to make money and for making money you can't just trade and make money so then hand holding is very important and we are saying that we will we will be slightly differentiated from the rest of them and we will invest in research advice research and advisory and uh will help people make our mission right from 1987 has been to help people make money in the stock market so we will live by that particular notion and uh you know i just wanted to talk a little bit about the home finance segment because i remember as having this conversation about a year and a half ago where you were genuinely concerned about the problems within the home finance business and you've really come a long way i mean disbursements have gone up almost 75 percent quarter on quarter this time around and we are sitting at perhaps the cusp of a bigger upcycle in the real estate market as well what kind of growth do you foresee here yeah so here we are started disbursing earlier our and we are doing about 35 40 per month which is a little larger than our unwinding so we are now accruing to the book uh right now so but then that question is just about five seven percent of the book we think in second half there are two things which are going to happen one our sales force will be much bigger and hence my uh dispersal will be very large i mean i think exit will be more like 80 crores or whatever in march or february second i think the collections have become very good this quarter now i think exit one at least the collection was about 100 and that is picking up so as the economy opens up uh things are stabilized we think that our uh our credit cycle the bad credit cycle battery cycle has kind of picked out and uh we we don't think that what we have in the first half our second half poisoning will be much as hence operating leverage will give me a good jump in the profits in the second half in fact one of the operating profit driver in the second half will be even the uh this is reversal of great cause in the second half or reduction in the credit cost in the second half ramday on a lighter note and with your permission i mean one low-cost way to enhance the profile of the business even more which is doing so well is to is maybe add technologies at the end of the name with all that is going in that space i think at the end of it you know uh with the short run it's a voting machine i mean that's why i haven't said and we are right now leaving the best of the voting machine time which really matters not the you know because your earnings can be very up and down yeah but the growth in the book value of the real one and now we have across 5200 in this quarter and it is growing at about 23 to 25 compounded well i mean uh you guys have done a tremendous job uh building out all these different lines of businesses uh at motural uh so absolutely just to come back to markets uh ramdev uh i mean away from the business itself uh are you uh i just want to ask you whether anything is now looking a little more attractive are you are you finding not i can't call it bargains because we've not fallen that much but what is looking the most exciting to you from a longer-term perspective i mean i can talk only about the themes you know like i think the biggest thing i i think apart from the tech which we talked we talked earlier i think they are reversing the credit cycle great cost cycle is going to be the big thing for not only private sector banks but also public sector banks so i think uh and if that doesn't happen in that case there is no story in india thank you so much for joining us and happy diwali once again uh hope we continue to meet and interact in the year to come as well and what a terrific year it's been for investors for your company i hope you continue to do well in the future as well well that's the word coming in from
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