저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
CPI 발표를 앞두고 실적 호조와 강한 소비로 경제는 견조하나 가격전가가 이어져 인플레이션 우려가 큼. 파월 연준의 긴축(금리인상) 가능성이 주요 리스크이며, 2월 피크 전망과 함께 3/10 CPI, 3/15~16 FOMC가 변곡점. 예상 범위 내면 시장 무반응, 큰 상회 시 하락 가능, 큰 하회 시 매수 신호로 해석 가능하다는 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
this morning around 2am i made a video describing that i will no longer be doing public live streams and this remains to be true however tomorrow morning at 5 30 a.m when cpi data comes out i will be hosting a small private group live stream if you're interested in that link below but for now let's talk about what to expect for cpi tomorrow first we're going to talk about good news then we're going to talk about bad news and i'm going to provide both perspectives of the bad news and then we're going to talk about some other aspects that i think are really relevant when it comes to inflation and what expectations to have for tomorrow i'm also going to discuss potentially what the results of the cpi means for investing in the stock market in my opinion so i will keep my opinion towards the end first let's briefly touch on good news earnings are absolutely killing it people are spending money like there is no tomorrow we have already known from the beginning of this earnings season that people's individual bank balances are higher than they have ever been before they're not expected to grow in 2022 because of probably the lack of stimulus the only thing left is really the child tax credit coming during tax return season and it's a questionable how much of that people will actually get in the form of money in their hands depending on their tax situation because people's incomes were higher last year which means more taxes to potentially offset that so we know that people have more money and people are clearly spending that money disney for example introduced the option for you to pay money to skip the line well apparently fifty percent of people are getting that add-on with their tickets to skip lines and if fifty percent of people are skipping the lines it makes you wonder do you just have two equally long lines anyway parks and experiences at disney just for example brought in an additional 17.4 percent not more than another quarter more than expected for the fourth quarter twilio killed it on demand raising forecasts even zenga despite a slowing gaming industry absolutely crushed earnings sure we had some bad earnings this season that led to some pain look at netflix or facebook or even activision maybe there have been big misses even at peloton but the market has been looking for any semblance of good news and we've been getting a lot of good news look at amd microsoft disney these companies are killing it even enface is killing it and a firm is expecting to report earnings which honestly if the spending that we've seen at other companies have anything to say about what could happen at a firm or even the spending that we've seen happen coming out of visa quite frankly if you want a hint hint and you want to make a bet on the market tomorrow i would read the visa and mastercard earnings reports or at least get a summary on google or something and then decide what do you think that means for a firm it's probably going to be their first first quarter after having integrated the affirm pay by now pay later button on amazon and we know what amazon did okay they also crushed it so if he's on amazon or any good uh or end phase or any of the other companies that have recently been reporting or any guide the economy is doing extremely well and this is why with unemployment so extremely low and the economy booming and earnings booming everybody's really really excited about this market and it doesn't make sense that prices should be as low as they even are right now we should have just continued the highs that we've seen uh you know maybe in like mid-december you know maybe not necessarily the november highs but like the mid-december stuff mid-december you know we should have just continued the santa claus rally right around the 25th 26th right anyway a lot of good news look at this you can even go to japan and see some co a supplier of silicon wafers booked out through 2026 folks we're in 2022 that is four years of them saying yo our capacity is booked out for the next four years now they're not taking contracts they're just expecting to be so booked and because they're expecting to be so booked up their shares skyrocketed 11 but what does this say about supply chains and potentially the improvement we're hoping for in supply chains to hopefully bring inflation down well we have individuals who are a little bit more dovish like a federal reserve board member bostick suggesting that inflation signs may already be starting to hit their peak most analysts are projecting that inflation will hit its peak in february and quite frankly last year analysts were right about inflation more than they were wrong 7 out of 10 cpi reports were within the range of analyst expectations and only five of the cpi reports came way outside of the range of what analysts expected one of the worst misses came in may and june with the biggest the worst one being may 12th and folks a lot of you aren't even going to have to look at your stock chart to see what happened may 12th of 2021 you already know may 12th was one of them bottoms okay you thought we just saw some cheap prices on end phase we saw on may 12th as well it was wild and it was all following a really really high cpi report that was way outside of what the market was expecting but hey it looks like analysts are generally more right than they're wrong and you've got a lot of good news that all sectors i mean even the logistics sector is making profit hand over fist just look at what xpo logistics did after earnings not only did they absolutely crush their earnings the ceo said they had their highest revenue growth quarter ever but they also raised their guidance this is really all good news for our economy i mean if the suppliers and the logistic companies are all saying things are booming and things are getting better then hopefully that means inflation will be transitory will come in for a soft landing on inflation and everything will just be okay how could you stop this amazing economy and we just had a gdp print of over six percent now some folks say uh but a lot of that that annualized gdp print was because of higher inventories and that just means we're setting up for deflation which is actually potentially good for helping inflation come down others argue no that inventory is actually not on shelves it's actually stuck in transit because it's taken way longer to get stuff and face for example tells us that the batteries that they sell the home batteries similar to what tesla sells right the home battery packs not only are they going to raise prices seven percent in march but their lead times are like 14 to 16 weeks right now and face freaking killing it okay ah one of the good things too about end phase which another piece of good news before we get to the bad is they say asic supply is pretty readily available why probably because crypto prices have fallen leading to less demand for asic chips so when you see crypto prices go down write that one down and face happy less competition for those asics okay fine that's all really good for the economy but what is the bad news here well the bad news is the more pricing power companies have like enface saying they're going to raise prices seven percent on their batteries amazon raising the cost of amazon prime starbucks having two price hikes in the first half of this year panda express two price hikes first half of the year pricing power kimberly clark end phase amd you name it anybody who has reported earnings is saying we're raising prices we are passing along higher costs to the consumer usually when inflation happens the company shares some of the burden of higher supply costs or labor costs but they're they're not they're they're either if they are they're trying to fully recoup that from their customer or they're already fully recouping these higher costs from their customers because americans are spending money like there is no tomorrow it's like there's this massive oblivion that's going to come and everybody's like well this money ain't going to do any good in the oblivion so i may as well just go spend it on and that's awesome for growth and the economy but it's really bad for inflation and that brings up the boogeyman the inflation boogeyman and the inflation boogeyman is jerome powell see we're not like japan japan usually has historically low inflation japan just had a bad print though they just had the japanese producer price index rise eight point six percent year over year the estimate was eight point two percent that's a miss also the japan producer prices index rose point six percent on a month over month basis which is 7.2 percent annually the estimate was for a 0.4 bump or a 4.8 percent annual raise that's a miss on both the numbers worse than expected right now japan is different though because in japan a lot of the companies in japan they remember the days of not really having inflation and they don't like passing higher costs onto their consumers because they're worried about losing their customers in japan they're like oh my gosh we're just so grateful like customers are coming to us again because their economy has grown so freaking slowly it's still in the slugs of the 90s basically this is different though for america and the person that we're fighting right now the most folks is the person who haunts me every night in my dreams i know this sounds corny but it's jerome powell and it's true i'm stressed out day in day out about what jerome powell is thinking about i know that sounds crazy but i consider this my job and i really care about my job and so i get stressed about my job some people like just don't be stressed about j-pal that's like saying don't be stressed for that test that you know you're gonna be stressed for it's like saying don't be stressed the first time you jump out of a plane right because you care about surviving right so this is leading to some folks saying well kevin you don't have to worry because there are a few things we can do we can just let it rip let inflation rip you know what as long as wages go up more than the rate of inflation then maybe purchasing power will actually increase so we'll be good which if we look at the month-over-month data of the last jobs report month-over-month data actually shows that labor wages rose more than the rate of inflation in the sa in the i'm sorry in the eight percent annualized range compared to the seven percent inflation range which means people are actually now starting to finally make potentially more money on a month-over-month basis that was not true on the kathy woodian argument which is where she took the year-over-year data and said oh no year-over-year wages only went up 5.6 which is less than inflation yeah but month over month we've got an inflection point and month-over-month is what you want to pay attention to because month-over-month shows you the inflection point let me just graphically draw this because we were working on the whiteboard earlier today and i think the easiest way to kind of show you what the difference between month over month and year over year is is year over year charts on inflation and such might look like this but what's so cool about the month over month data and annualizing that is let's say we wanted to zoom into this orange box right here and i labeled this november december and january let's just say and then we zoomed into that box and this right here is that zoomed in version of that box and so you've got the same things over here you've got november december january well on the year-over-year picture it might look nice and smooth but what you're looking for potentially on the month-over-month data is what if from november to december you had this monthly inflation of let's say 0.1 percent of an increase okay that's not bad but then all of a sudden you had a 0.6 percent increase well now you go from say here to here in january that is an inflection in the curve that you actually don't see on the year-over-year data so i always believe you want to look at that month-over-month data to look for inflection points and yeah i already know you all like playing drinking games when i say inflection points so if you're playing that game again today inflection point but anyway so so some folks say hey look you know maybe just let inflation rip well that might be something we all think could be a possibility especially since those with assets usually win usually in higher inflation times people who have like debts uh associated with let's say hard assets like real estate their debt becomes less expensive it's easier for them to pay that debt off that could do well well as long as the fed's on your side that could do well see the problem is the federal reserve sees inflation as something that hurts existing consumer debtors people who don't have their debts tied to assets so credit card debts student loans car loans these things usually become more expensive as we experience inflation car loans recently a little bit of a weird one because car prices have been going up so just think credit card debt if there's a lot of inflation and you have less money left over every month it becomes harder for you to pay off that credit card debt so inflation hurts folks who are generally in consumer debt which are generally poor individuals who need more help to participate in society the federal reserve wants poorer individuals and maximum and broad-based support for the economy so that way poor individuals and everybody else can participate not just rich folks even though we all know when they bailed out the stock market in 2020 all they really did was bail out rich people we know that it's kind of like intentions versus reality your expectations versus reality right anyway so keep that in mind so we know that the federal reserve has a dual mandate number one is uh maximum employment well by almost all accounts we've reached maximum employment not only have we reached maximum employment but the federal reserve believes we could actually do with a little bit less demand for labor because more demand for labor is actually making prices go up more for wages which ends up leading inflation to go up so if we took a little bit away from the wage bucket and took a little bit away here and use that to help bring inflation down then maybe we won't hurt poor individuals and and that would actually mean that we can bring inflation down and maybe one way to do that is by raising rates and so this is where the next argument comes up and says okay kevin we know the fed's going to raise rates it's probably not going to do anything in the short term because there's plenty of cash flowing around who cares if rates go up one percent but you know what even if they did it's priced in it's all priced in you don't have to worry about it and this is where i have to say two things number one is a sentiment analysis and i'll tell you when it comes to polls on twitter you can't really trust them as far as you can throw them why well because on january 27th i ran a poll asking uh the following is elon musk right with the market now pricing in five rate hikes this year will we be heading into a recession here is that twitter poll uh and you can see here that 57 of individuals out of 10 500 votes voted yes so more than half thought oh my gosh elon's going to be right we're going into a recession but wait a minute i just ran the same poll again i literally copy and pasted the poll today with also almost ten thousand five hundred votes this one had about 150 less votes so statistically insignificant it's flip-flopped now about 56 percent of people say no elon musk is not right no recession and you know what the difference between those two twitter polls is today the indices were all up over one percent and we had sick earnings coming out at disney and everything was mooning during the day you had end phase and the and the solar companies and the after hours uh you had uh and you've got crypto going up in the after hours you had the earnings that killed it january 27th folks the market was bloody red people were fearful so there's a little bit of sentiment analysis for you it depends what the sticks did that day now is it priced in are these rates hike priced in maybe maybe not maybe the market is assuming we're coming in for a soft landing maybe it doesn't matter in the long term and quite frankly the odds are it probably doesn't matter but why the fear well there is some fear in the markets because individuals believe that if jerome powell is going to change his tune to become more aggressive potentially by using not only tomorrow's cpi print but the cpi print that comes out on march 10th before the march 15th the 16th federal reserve board meeting we could end up having a really hawkish fed also one week from today we get the fomc minutes from january which in december were a disaster so we got some catalysts coming up write those down okay first tomorrow cpi this is consumer price inflation numbers one week from today on the 16th we're gonna get the minutes for january in december they crashed the market that was a disaster when those notes came out in january for the december meeting and then march 10th is your next and then of course march of 15th to 16th you want to pay attention to those dates now is are these rate hikes priced in maybe if things continue to go along with expectations current expectations are that inflation is going to come in at 7.2 percent year over year and month over month we're going to see a decline from the prior month to just 0.4 previous month with 0.5 so actually a slight inflection down kind of like what i showed you on that chart those inflection points where you take a shot yeah we're actually expecting it to come down a little bit which would be really good and so this sets up three potential scenarios if we come in close to expectations the market's probably going to do absolutely nothing tomorrow if we come in above expectations which i believe would be something like a 7.6 or 7.7 percent headline number the market's probably not going to do well especially since no analyst is expecting inflation to come in over 7.7 so that would be a wide misc that the shock number is over 7.6 that is your shock number shock number on the high side for month to month is over 0.6 on the low side the shock number with no analyst expecting a number under 0.2 percent that's the low side shock and no analyst is expecting inflation to come in under seven percent on the low side so if we got something like 6.7 and 0.1 percent that might be a signal to potentially go buying if you've been sitting on the sidelines if you get a really low shock like that you get something along expectations markets probably not going to do anything probably doesn't mean change your strategy if it comes in super high maybe that means evaluating oh do we think we're going to see this again or are we going to hit peak in february and then is it downhill from there ultimately it's all speculation but i will be sharing my personal opinion in terms of exactly what i'm doing in reaction to this because i'm kind of giving you you already know what my opinion is where i stand uh but i will be sharing my reaction to the numbers in a private course member live stream tomorrow so if you're interested in joining that check out the link down below make sure you watch uh check out all the notices that have been posted for this uh so you're properly prepared 5 30 a.m tomorrow california time will be privately streamed uh and i'm going to leave you with one extra thing warren buffett sat out in the early 70s 50 years ago when he was in his 30s he said quote you're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing if you can stick with the pepsi you should be okay folks stick with the pepsi we'll see ya
Comments 0