저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 과열과 소비·부채 과잉을 근거로 경기침체 위험(6~12개월 내 60~70%)을 경고하며, 주식 대부분 매도·부동산 일부 매도 후 현금 보유. 인플레이션이 지속되고 채권시장 금리 전망이 낙관적이라고 주장. 침체 공포 시 재진입 계획을 밝히고, 신규 투자 프로젝트 공동투자 가능성과 유료 강좌를 홍보.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, it's me, Kevin. In this video, I announce changes and some interesting information. But first, I would like to clarify what is happening. First, I don't regret the transition to my portfolio at all, because I believe that we still have significant challenges ahead. I don't know when these difficulties will arise.
I don't think they will arise after the publication of CPI data. I believe this is much more likely to happen when our central bank discusses policy action. And the next time it will be March 16th. However, real difficulties may not even arise in March. They may appear as early as the first quarter of 2023, that is, in a year.
So we'll see when the fears in the market flare up, which I think they will. And I think that right now the markets are completely misjudging the risk that we face. Markets seem to think that when supply chains loosen and interest rates rise to just 1%, despite household balance sheets being relatively high, as are corporate balance sheets , they are all relatively high, meaning that a 1% rate hike is unlikely to make much of a difference.
It is likely that inflation will continue to rise, especially considering the fact that I have already read dozens of earnings reports, and every company whose earnings reports I have read talks about more and more price increases, not only in the past, but also ahead, including Nphase. Luckily, I have a straddle on NPhase that came through the earnings report, and we're going to do some trending on this NPhase deal, which is great.
But what's not great is that in their earnings reports they say they continue to expect pricing power and expect , for example, a 7% increase in the cost of their batteries in May. This means they are planning bigger and bigger price increases in the future, and we are seeing this in company after company.
I believe this pain will continue and it may take time for it to fully manifest itself in the CPI. Meanwhile, the bond market seems to be pricing perfectly , taking into account the fact that the Federal Reserve will have the absolute ability to reduce inflation, that people will simply stop paying so much money for products even if prices rise, and that somehow, once supply chains recover, companies will no longer use their pricing power to increase their margins.
Consumers will eventually pay lower prices and find themselves in that deflationary environment that we've all been waiting for, but really shouldn't expect, for two to four, maybe even five years. Meanwhile, fear-inducing assets like gold haven't budged an ounce, pun intended. This means that, in my opinion, beyond looking at the bond market and these breakeven rates, we have significant risk in this market that is not captured in the estimates.
Many people believe that pain is already taken into account. We believe we are at the beginning of the pain. But when the stock market has green days, it's very easy to become a short-sighted and short-term investor and focus on daily fluctuations rather than evolving market cycles . And I believe we are in an evolving market cycle.
As Warren Buffett says, just because Mr. Market yells a price at you doesn't mean you have to accept it or even consider it. Warren Buffett also advises us to be afraid when others are greedy. And I'm afraid others are really greedy now. That there is a belief: don't worry, we don't need a tailwind from the Fed.
We will invest without the Fed and make money. We will go to the moon without the Fed. I think that's a greedy belief. I believe that we have excessive consumer spending. An economy that is actually very, very strong because people have more money than ever before and are spending it like crazy. Excessive spending on goods, excessive credit card spending, excessive borrowing, excessive margin, excessive household debt, excessive real estate prices, and excessive stock valuations.
And also this over-determination of uneducated investors who believe that there is no way we could be in the beginning of a macroeconomic recession, and any hint of the possibility of a macroeconomic recession—it's just a muffled sound of Dr. Fad and Mr. Fad here again to give us bad news. As a result, I personally believe that changes are necessary, which I will discuss in a moment along with a positive announcement.
So, we will have a sad announcement and a positive announcement . But first, I want you to know that you have to make your own decision. In my opinion, there are two decisions you can make. First, you must follow the psychology of money when buying dips and focus on the quantity of your shares, not the price of your shares.
I think it's appropriate if your portfolio is definitely less than one or two times your income, and instead focus on the growth of the stocks you have in your portfolio, the number of stocks you own, rather than the value of your stocks. Try to ignore daily market fluctuations. Absolutely important.
But instead, you have another choice, especially for those with larger portfolios. And this is the second option. A second option is potentially to consider the timing of a larger market cycle. Determining the bottom will be almost impossible, just as reaching the top with certainty will be almost impossible.
But I believe there is an opportunity to account for the transition from the top half of the cycle to the bottom half of the cycle. That's why I've sold over 99 % of my shares so far. And I also started selling some of my real estate. I currently believe that we face a 60 to 70% risk of recession in the next 6-12 months.
This means that I believe it is more likely than not that we will face recession risks . And I will also hedge my cash position with alternative investments and prepare for new opportunities when real fear hits the market. Because only when there is real fear in the market, not anger and this false belief that markets can only go up after they go down, that's when I want to be ready to enter the market, when we have real fear, and that's what I'm looking for.
However, listen, the choice is not easy for everyone. Uh, and unfortunately, sharing the daily market fluctuations with you, while interesting, was unhealthy for me . Therefore, I will no longer be doing live broadcasts of market openings and closings, at least in the near future. Live broadcasts for course participants will continue, and starting tomorrow at 5:25 AM, I will be broadcasting any important events live with course participants only.
I believe this is a reward for those of you who support me, and I will always keep my promise to provide you with more value. Now, I have another exciting announcement that I want to make in a moment. But first, I want to mention the market fluctuations and apologize, because the market fluctuations over the last two, three, four weeks have really delayed my full release of The Path to Wealth, and I apologize for that .
I am not perfect and I make mistakes. However, I am now planning to expand the Path to Wealth course to include a Path to Wealth Logic and Cash Flow course with new lecture sections coming in the coming weeks. Now some additional and, in my opinion, interesting information. Er, er, first of all, I'm massively preparing myself and my portfolio for a very big transition.
In fact, the money I receive from selling stocks, hedges, or real estate will go towards a brand new project that I am excited to announce. If you would like to participate in this announcement and potentially invest with me in this new project, please consider leaving your information at metaven.com/cashflow as this new project I believe could be an opportunity for us to invest together, especially if you are an accredited investor.
To be determined later, if unaccredited , will be permitted. Things are very constantly changing. Um, but my goal is that if we end up in the middle of the market cycle where we have the opportunity to invest together at the bottom of the market. That's what I'm really excited about, because if you have the time, the market cycle change, which requires a lot of patience at the beginning of the market cycle change and gives you time when you're at the bottom of the market cycle change, but requires a lot of capital and cash to really have the best opportunities, then I think you can really make a revolutionary change to a portfolio.
Of course, no guarantees. Listen, everyone makes mistakes. Fortunately, I still feel like I'm not making a mistake by staying out of the broader tech sector and most US stocks. We'll see. I may open myself up to emerging markets or alternative assets, but in the meantime I am patient because patience is ultimately rewarded.
As hard as it is to be patient, as hard as it is to, and I know it sounds ironic, paper stocks and cash with a diamond hand, I think it's the right thing to do along with, of course, hedging the cash. Anyway, go to metaven.com/cashflow if you're interested. Uh, this is a free, uh, registration that you can sign up for, and you can, uh, find out more as soon as I get more information about this potential co- investment opportunity.
Thus, if we have a market cycle shift from the top of the market to the bottom , we will already be ready . This is something that makes me very, very happy. Secondly, I will no longer be live streaming the market opening and closing. If there are events like the release of CPI data, the release of unemployment data, uh, the Federal Reserve meeting, right now I plan to broadcast them with only the course participants.
Uh, if you're not a course participant, remember that you get lifetime access, and no matter what happens, I'll always update my programs to make sure you get the best possible value from them forever. This doesn't mean everything is perfect. But they do have one guarantee: if I have new information, whether good or bad, a change in information or a correction, I will provide it to you and will always be focused on providing you with more .
Check out these wealth growth programs at the link below in the description next to the Cash Flow sign-up link. You can use this coupon, which expires on Valentine's Day. In the meantime, I wish you all the best.
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