저자: Dr.MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 전 세계 금 보유 비중이 극히 낮아 금이 화폐자산으로서 여전히 저평가라고 주장한다. 금 가격은 밀·설탕 대비로는 비싸 보이지만 화폐자산 관점에선 싸다는 입장. 주식은 미국이 비싸고 유럽·신흥국(특히 중국·홍콩)이 저평가돼 자금이 미국에서 빠져나가 이들 시장이 초과수익을 낼 수 있다고 봄. 관세는 세금이며 경제에 부정적이고 글로벌 교역을 해칠 것이라 비판. 달러는 장기적으로 하락 추세로 보며, 본인 자산 중 달러 비중이 가장 크다고 언급.
다듬은 글
I think most people have practically nothing in gold. The young people for them gold was too boring and they bought cryptocurrencies. The ownership of gold is very small among the public. We also see it outstanding shares of ETFs, gold ETFs is tiny, tiny. And in my view, if I look at gold just as how much do people own gold?
I mean in my view the world is grossly underweight gold grossly. The metal's limited supply characteristics and historical performance during economic downturns continue to attract investment capital with physical gold ETFs reporting significant inflows throughout the first half of 2025. A potential gold price rise correction scenario would involve diplomatic breakthroughs, softening rhetoric, or tariff reductions ahead of the July 8th reciprocal tariff deadline.
Even partial resolutions could trigger significant profit- takingaking in gold markets as investors redirect capital toward equities, emerging markets, and yield generating assets. Dr. Mark Faber is an investment analyst renowned for his contrarian market perspectives. Regarding gold, Faber reflects on its recent surge and notes whether this signals a broader phase of monetary debasement.
He believes the world is grossly underweight gold and may look expensive against commodities like wheat or sugar, but it remains undervalued as a monetary asset. While US equities, bonds, and the US dollar were falling simultaneously in April, a phenomenon not seen since the 1970s, gold hit an all-time high, reaching $3,500, and its monetary appeal continues to grow.
In his market outlook, Faber emphasizes renewed strength in bricks and emerging markets, especially China and Hong Kong. He contrasts this with expensive US stocks and views potential capital outflows from the US. He believes undervalued regions may outperform going forward. Last week, several Republican members of Congress, including Representative John Muinar, chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, wrote recently appointed Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins, to express grave concern over the continued presence of Chinese companies on US stock exchanges.
According to exchange data cited by the South China Morning Post, 286 Chinese companies are listed on US exchanges as of the end of March with a total market value of $1.1 trillion. Before diving into Mark Far. Let's get into it. This is a a question I'm always asking myself. Does gold tell us that we are in the midst of a huge monetary depreciation phase and that people will want to have something that is like a anchor or something safe?
The question also relates is gold here expensive or is it inexpensive? say I'm a man or you or other wealthy people they have 100 million or 10 million or whatever and then they own the bulk of their assets is say in real estate uh and in equities stocks in their own businesses in cash deposits in art and so forth and so on.
How much of that say 100 or 10 million or 100 million should be in gold if any at all? You understand? This is a question. I think most people have practically nothing in gold. The young people for them gold was too boring and they bought cryptocurrencies. The old people like my age, my generation, a lot of them they sold the gold already because they also smart and they always talked about the correction already $1,000 ago.
And uh so the ownership of gold is very small among the public. We also see it the outstanding shares of ETFs, gold ETFs is tiny, tiny. And in my view, if I look at gold just as how much do people own gold, I mean in my view the world is grossly underweight gold grossly. Now if I look at gold and I compare it to the price of wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, then gold is expensive because I can buy with one ounce of gold a lot of sugar.
I can buy with one ounce of gold a lot of bread. So in that sense gold as a monetary asset is very cheap as a trading asset is quite expensive. I mean you say it's been quiet around the bricks. This is to some extent true but some stocks in the bricks and in emerging markets have done very well. So in the stock markets actually there have been some um interesting moves and I'd say in every discussion about investments people always ask me about the stock market.
The stock market nowadays is complex because on the one hand you have the US which is expensive by valuation measures. On the other hand, you have Europe that is relatively inexpensive and emerging economies that is very cheap relative to the US including China. Now what could happen is that money which is now allocated something like 60% to the US flows out of the US and flows into Europe and emerging markets and that these markets subsequently outperform the US as they have actually over the last 6 to 9 months.
So the European market say you look at today year today the US market despite its recent recovery is still down but European markets are up strongly especially measured in US dollars because in US dollars you have the appreciation of stocks and the appreciation of the currency which is roughly 5% in the last uh 3 months.
Malaysia is not as compelling a value as it used to be say 12 18 months ago. Hong Kong and China the values are still there. The property stocks in my view have bottomed out and uh they will increase in value but it's a long process. You know it's not going to be overnight. But what I want to say about Hong Kong, the Western media, especially the US and the thumb down European socialists and communists that populate the hallways of media companies.
They have nothing good to say about Hong Kong. Mark Faber states that voting for Trump was the only option due to poor alternatives, but he criticizes his tariff-driven economic policies as flawed and damaging. He argues tariffs act as hidden taxes, distorting global supply chains and harming both US consumers and global trade.
Donald Trump will inevitably claim Monday's temporary truce in the US China trade war as a victory, but financial markets seem to have read it for what it is, a capitulation. Despite its current dominance in global trade, Faber mentions the US dollar as being in long-term decline. He criticizes protectionist policies and currency tactics, warning they won't restore US strength, but instead risk economic instability.
Trump made clear in his first term that he wants a weaker dollar, declaring in 2017, "Our currency is too strong and it's killing us," and saying in 2019 that he was not thrilled with the strong dollar. Trump has been less forthcoming on his thoughts on the dollar during his second term. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said in February the Trump administration wants the dollar to be strong.
But what they don't want is other countries to weaken their currencies to manipulate their trade. Let's get back to the interview. I would have voted for Trump the first time around and again now because if I look at the other candidates, they were so disastrous that uh Trump was essentially the only option.
His policies from an economic point of view are a disaster. Complete disaster. I mean to think that you can heal a country with import duties with tariffs is a ludicrous idea. Ludicrous. And uh a tariff or a import duty we have to be very clear about this is a tax. Someone has to pay this tax. But it is not clear when you impose this tax, when you introduce the tariffs, who will pay it remains to be seen.
And no economist can tell you precisely because it depends very much on the elastity of demand and the elastity of supply at that particular time. But in general, the tax will be shared somewhat. Say if America introduces taxes on China, it is likely that part of the tax will be paid by the American consumer because they buy consumer goods from China and part of the tax may be paid by the importer or the exporter and part of the tax by the laborer in China.
But exactly is it 90% that is being paid by the consumer in America or 90% by the manufacturers in China? That is not clear. and Trump doesn't know it. And the problem with these tariffs is also the following. You see, modern manufacturing is very complex. something that you buy, say an iPhone or whatever, is manufactured in many different countries and the parts are then shipped into an assembly plant and the assembly plant puts it together and sells it uh to a distributor in America or a shop or whatever or the consumer directly.
Now, the fact that these parts come from different countries makes it very difficult. say you have to then exempt the parts that say come to America because if the parts are taxed at the same rate as the final product, nobody will ship it to America anymore. There won't there will not be an advantage to shift production to the US and so forth and so on.
So there lots of things that you don't know. But Trump, he has a brain like a 12 years old playing in a sandbox, bullying other people around and thinking that he knows, but he doesn't know. That's the problem. It's like most politicians are interventionists when they should step back and say let's let the market regulate these things.
And uh in my opinion the tariffs and you will see the impact on the US economy shortly uh will result in shortages and huge price swings on both sides and in my opinion it will have a negative impact on the global economy. But this is my view. You understand other economies they have a different view.
The American economist they think these tariffs are the greatest invention ever. The dollar is a doomed currency. But right now as a unit of trade of commerce, the dollar is still the most accepted currency. We have to face that. I mean, I have money and in different currencies and different countries and so forth, but the dollar is still my most important asset.
uh which then leads to another issue that I'd like to discuss very briefly because it's interesting. Say I have portfolios that are valued in dollars. Okay? And I have portfolios that are also valued in euros or in Swiss Frank because I'm Swiss. So I have a base in Switzerland. Now when the dollar weakens and in other words other countries currencies appreciate my dollar valuation portfolios tend to appreciate because the component that is not in dollars goes up relative to my dollar holding.
So it's favorable a weak dollar for my dollar valuation is favorable for that portfolio. The portfolio in Swiss Frank tends to appreciate when the dollar goes up. The dollar holdings, say 50% of the portfolio is then translated into more Swiss Franks. Whereas if the dollar weakens considerably, everything else being equal, the Swiss Frank valued portfolio will go down in value.
Investors still turn to gold when seeking protection from inflation, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical instability. With growing global interest and underallocation in portfolios, the long-term fundamentals for gold appear increasingly favorable. Based on Mark Faber's warnings, is a global rebalancing away from US assets and toward hard money and emerging markets already underway?
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