저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Marc Faber는 금이 싸거나 비싸다고 단정할 수 없다고 하면서도, 금은 타인의 채무가 아닌 자산이라 상대적으로 안전하다고 본다. 많은 사람이 금을 보유할수록 정부가 몰수하기 어려워 금의 안전성이 커진다고 주장. 단기 투기(선물·마진)는 피하고 장기 가치저장 수단으로 보유하라고 조언. 미국 달러의 기축통화 지위는 지금 또는 10년 내 약화될 것이며, 미국 주식(특히 매그니피센트 7)은 고평가, 달러 하락 위험이 주식 수익을 상회할 수 있다고 경고. 금 가격은 약 3,250달러 수준에서 단기 조정 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Gold is cheap or expensive. I can only tell you that in my view the ownership of gold is a probably an asset that is relatively safe because it's not a liability of someone else. People own gold ETFs. The more people own gold, the safer gold will be because it's politically for a government very difficult to take away something that owned by everybody.
Gold traded around $3,250 per ounce on Friday, heading for its worst week in over two months. Signs of easing trade tensions dampened demand for safe haven assets. Despite this short-term pullback, precious metals remain near historic heights, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties in global markets.
Swiss investor Dr. Marc Faber, known for his contrarian economic forecasts and the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, maintains that owning gold remains a relatively safe choice, primarily because it is not someone else's liability. In times of monetary inflation, Faber argues, the value of assets becomes highly uncertain, making gold a reliable store of value due to its independence from counterparty risk.
Gold has traditionally served as a safe haven investment because it typically acts as a hedge during political and financial uncertainty periods. Current price levels reflect growing fears surrounding global trade tensions and their potential to push the US economy into recession. However, market observers are divided on whether gold prices have reached their peak.
Faber further explains that determining an asset's true value becomes nearly impossible during monetary inflation. He acknowledges that gold could be considered overvalued compared to commodities like wheat or soybeans, or conversely, undervalued when factoring in global ownership patterns, money supply metrics, and mounting national debts.
Some analysts argue that gold's recent rally may may pushed its price to unsustainable levels, particularly when compared to declining prices across other commodity sectors. These market viewers suggest that gold's current valuation may be more influenced by investor sentiment and market psychology than its underlying fundamental value.
Before diving deeper into the video, subscribe to our channel, hit the bell icon so you never miss any updates, and share it with friends and anyone who might benefit from it. It is impossible to say what is the value of something in a monetary inflationary period. Right. Because I can give you a speech now for say 20 minutes on why gold is grossly overvalued because I compare it to say wheat, corn, soybeans.
Or I could give you a speech and say that gold is grossly undervalued still. When I consider how many individuals own gold, how much money there is in the world, the monetary quantity of all the countries, the debts of all the countries. So, I can make both cases. And I cannot tell you whether gold is cheap or expensive.
I can only tell you that in my view the ownership of gold is a probably an asset that is relatively safe because it's not a liability of someone else. My view is the more people own gold ETFs, the more people own gold, the safer gold will be because it's politically for a government very difficult to take away something that is owned by everybody.
Right. Yeah. Right. Is Is difficult to go in the US and tell people, "Well, now your properties, we the government, are taking it over." Yeah. They can take it over indirectly by bankrupting the home owners first. Then the home owners have to sell it to companies like Blackstone and uh BlackRock. Right.
And as all of the ownership shifts from the private sector to the government sector. You need to own assets in uh say real estate and you own assets in stocks and some cash. And if you invest more and don't overtrade, don't don't speculate in gold, but acquire gold and silver and platinum as a store of value.
But you keep for emergencies or you keep for your old age or whatever, but don't speculate in gold and silver in the futures market. Then you get a margin call and you have to sell out at the wrong time and you lose all your money, you understand? Yeah. I think uh people should get away from the view of get-quick schemes in other words, overnight wealth creation to long-term wealth creation.
You understand? If I have a bank deposit or I buy a bond, someone owes me money. Right. But not if I keep gold and I store it in my garden or in any in any place in a safe deposit box, then I think that it's relatively safe. Not 100%, not 100% because the government can declare it to be illegal. Right.
The ownership of gold they can declare is illegal. Mario states that the dollar's role as a reserve currency is effectively over. It's just a matter of whether the shift happens now or within the next decade. He suggests that the entire financial system might evolve, possibly moving away from reserve currencies altogether, or transitioning toward a gold standard, or even cryptocurrencies.
At the end of 2024, the dollar accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves compared to 65% 10 years earlier. Equally, the share of the US Treasury market owned by foreigners has also fallen sharply from 50% in 2014 to around a third. Let's get back to the interview. The dollar as a reserve currency is finished anyway.
The question is today or in 10 years time, but the days of the US dollar being a reserve currency, and maybe the whole financial system will change in the sense that they are no longer reserve currencies. Right. Or that we move back to a gold standard or to a standard of cryptocurrencies or I don't know.
But I wouldn't bet that in 10 years time the dollar is still a reserve currency. That I wouldn't bet. Well, I think some people especially central banks that are non-US are realizing that the dollar may be under pressure in future either through expropriation that the reserves are taken away or that the debt is not repaid or that the currency continues to lose its value at an accelerating rate, in other words, through inflation.
And so, some people want to own physical gold uh because they think that in a emergency the situation it may be useful to have. Now, it's obvious that we have been in a recession in the first quarter, but it's probably worse than what they say it is. And uh my concern is that earnings will begin to disappoint.
And my concern is that the valuations are much too high in the United States. I'm not saying that Hong Kong property stocks are expensive. Uh there are always exceptions, and also foreign markets are tend to be cheaper than the US. But say, the magnificent seven stocks in America are, in my opinion, grossly overvalued.
No, I think it's a possibility. My view is that the dollar has far more downside risk than is perceived by the investing public. And therefore, in theory, the US could print money and keep the stock market up in nominal terms. Right. But if at the present the Fed prints money and puts interest rates, I suppose that the dollar would weaken and the dollar weakness could exceed the price gains on domestic on on the stock market.
In other words, you may make some money in US stocks, but you may lose it massively on the currency. I think that's a possibility. With market sentiment oscillating between optimism and caution, gold remains central in the debate over financial stability and future monetary frameworks. While recent price dips reflect improving diplomatic rhetoric, the deeper undercurrents of inflation, sovereign debt concerns, and declining trust in fiat systems continue to make precious metals a strategic safeguard.
The weakening global dominance of traditional reserve currencies, particularly the dollar, has sparked speculation about a potential paradigm shift in how value is stored and exchanged worldwide. In this evolving environment, the role of tangible assets may become more critical than ever in protecting long-term purchasing power.
Could we be nearing a turning point where tangible assets replace trust in fiat money as the foundation of global finance? Share your perspective in the comments section. If the video resonates with you, join our community by subscribing to our channel and enabling notifications with the bell icon. Thank you for being a part of our community.
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