저자: Josh · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 2024년 들어 21·50·100·200일 이평선 아래에서 약 20% 하락했고 RSI도 약세권이다. 1월 24일 실적에서 이익률 기대치(16.7%)를 못 맞출 위험이 있으며, 주요 지지선은 207→203→194달러다. 강세론(EV 리더십, 옵티머스, 머스크 보상 재협상)과 약세론(이익률 압박, 중국 배터리 의존, 머스크 분산)을 함께 검토했다. 발표자 예측은 200달러 부근까지 하락 후 반등해 상반기 중 260, 7월경 315달러까지 상승이다. 손절 기준은 180달러로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
all right guys that's exactly how it's felt trying to trade Tesla you jump in when you think it's the right moment all you're getting is tied up in the support and resistance ropes I'm going to be breaking down the technicals and the fundamentals we're going to be looking at the bullish and the bearish case for Tesla today but there's no denying it Tesla's been in a serious pullback all of 2024 every single day this year it's been beneath its 21 EMA and That's a classic bearish trend on that point it's actually beneath all of its moving averages the 50 the 100 and the 200 Tesla's undoubtedly been under sell pressure and that brings us down 20 20% so far for 2024 now I'm going to break down what a typical pullback for Tesla can look like and whether or not there's more room down I'll just give you a heads up there is take caution on Tesla but understand that we are going to get to a reversal moment we're going to try to identify where that might be we know that earnings is January 24th it's right around the corner we know that the wall Street's going to be looking at profit margin and there's a real serious reason to be con concerned about profit margin and wall Street's going to be looking at what Elon says last quarter Tesla reported its smallest profit in two years and it missed Street's expectation on both the top and bottom line for the first time since 2019 so despite the fact that Elon went into 2023 with an enormous level of confidence and really high forward Guidance the fact is things did not exactly finish as strong as he had hoped all right so let's just look at the reality of where we're at a typical pullback for Tesla stock is between 25 to 29% and even though so far this year we've been into a painful decline the fact is we're only down 20% which means we still could go down an additional five or even 9% from here in addition to that if you take a look at the RSI and I'm going to dive deeper into the RSI in just a moment the fact is we are at the lower level of the RSI we're below the 50% Mark which is the territory of the Bears and so if we recap there's more room to go down we're beneath all the good moving averages and the RSI is in Bear territory so bears bears bears but I didn't need to tell you guys that because you're seeing it in your shareholder price so we've got to take a minute pause let's reflect some of the news headlines fud has been on overtime Teslas have been described as dead robots abandoned and Scattered across the Midwest in the midst of a snow apocalypse every everything from if you don't freeze to death in one of these death ice boxes then over on the west coast the battery will explode and you'll burn to death that's a taste of the spectrum of fud that has been getting generated around Tesla then you've got the price Target cuts and the downgrades UBS Cuts price Target maintains neutral rating and then this was a more realistic article that I thought had some Fair points to make it basically said Tesla could be staring down a year of growing pains analyst cautions it goes on to say Tesla screens the most at risk out of all of big Tech he pointed out that Elon called for 50% growth in deliveries but the best that Tesla achieved was 133% he said that cutting costs in China and pause production in Germany was absolutely going to put a clamp on deliveries all together elevated interest rates and flattening EV adoption was another concern all of this is going to lead to the real problem that Wall Street could have with this Tesla earnings that's ahead of us is they may only come out with a 15.4% profit when the street is expecting 16.7 and let's be real the 16.7 number is a significantly reduced number and so it's why the stock is not at all-time highs right now but to not be able to achieve it and to drop even lower potentially to the 15% mark would absolutely cause this stock to fall beneath $200 guys I want you to take a sober and realistic look right now at Tesla with me so we could be looking at some bad bad days ahead but this is not a beat up Tesla video because they're down I'm going to look at the bullish case and the bearish case fairly together and I'll share my opinion as to what I'm doing here at the end the bull case is that obviously Tesla is the EV market leader and EVS are only just beginning they have a supercharger Network that has become the standard and in the course of time profit margins will soar as production costs shrink and adoption continues to grow grow now we have Optimus I'm not talking Optimus Prime I'm talking about the Optimus AI robot that Tesla's working on that Elon is spearheading and he's one of the guys that I know can bring it to Market Optimus is the Latin word which means best it also reflects optimism in the future and that's exactly what the shareholders need right now they need some optimism on the profit opportunity of Optimus and we all know that it could be in the trillions of dollars as some have estimated optimist and AI could be a world changing technology but and there's always a big butt in the room Elon says Daddy got to get paid and that's probably the most bullish Dynamic of Tesla for me right now is that Elon is using this moment in time because of Optimus because of his optimism in himself and in this overall company he's using it as an opportunity to renegotiate pay now when things are going badly and when things are falling apart that's not typically when you look for a pay raise or or a bigger bonus or a bump or an opportunity so the fact that Elon is actually using this as a leverage moment seeing what's coming down the road that it's going to be bullish and not bearish use it as a moment to get paid tells me that I should not be too bearish on this company I want you guys to think about it on that note before I get into the bearish perspective let me know if any of that makes sense if you agree or disagree with the bullish narrative and then we've got the bare case what do the Bears have to say well elon's basically cutting all of the profits from this increasingly competitive business they don't believe that there is any money left for the shareholders plus Tesla is relying on China for its batteries the US China tensions are ongoing and perhaps going to be intensified in 2024 and that's going to hurt the stock price not to mention the fact that it may make them ineligible for some of the US subsidies that's a big concern and then we've got the same ongoing problem with Elon that his attention is is spanned across too many companies too many projects he's going to be chasing Optimus growth and tweeting on X and Legacy car makers will be nipping at Tesla's heels further eroding profit margin that's what the Bears think I'm going to break down what the charts say in light of all of that in just a minute let me take a very quick right now Mumu is offering here in the United States up to 15 free stock for opening and funding an account but there's even a better offer than than that if you simply put cash in your new Mumu account they will give you 8.1% interest that's the absolute highest interest rate that I have seen anywhere if you have seen one Higher let me know in the comment section but that's the offer right now from the mumu Investment app there is zero cost to trade platform it's available in the US Australia and Canada click on the link in the top pin comment and the description of this video and check out the offer that's available for you okay what are we going to break down in the technicals we're going to be talking about price volume patterns candles and momentum and the first area where we're going to kick things off is price we know that the price has been in Decline but let's begin to look at three ranges of price now this is complicated stuff sometimes and so I want to try to make it as simple as I can I'm going to be looking at a local price range then we're going to broaden it up to what I would refer to as a weekly price uh range and then I'm going to be looking at sort of a 12month price range so the big picture sort of a smaller picture and then the micro picture Okay so the bottom line is that local support right now beneath us is at 207 and beneath that at 203 and beneath that 194 that's the local support price range now the last time that we lost $26 when we were coming down and we got a weekly close beneath that price that's a very key point a weekly close we actually dropped from there 50% and so yes I want you guys to be aware that we could actually drop 50% from where this price is sitting right now because that 207 level lost on the weekly chart is super critical for technical investors now above us the local resistance is at 233 that had been a strategic area of support for a long time holding up very well but when it broke down it's now turned to resistance so if we're looking at days the price range right now is between 206 and 233 if we're looking at weeks it broadens and the price range is between 194 and 265 if we're looking at a longer view of months the price range as I see it right now is between $1 165 to $300 the outer corners of the larger range is between 150 and 315 which means all of those prices could be achieved based on the perspective that the market has of how 2024 is going to go for Tesla now let's take a look at volume what does volume look like right now on Tesla stock well it went down yesterday $4 it went down on a lower 11% volume that means that even though we're continuing to move lower the conviction and the momentum to the downside is nearing an end that's important to note then we've got chart patterns now this is where I see some bullishness in the chart because there's two very bullish chart patterns that have formed on the chart one is an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and the other one is a flag pattern and the way that it'll be determined which one it actually is is how far Tesla comes down right now if Tesla stops at 207 then we have and it reverses and it goes higher well then we've got an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and the neck lines all the way back up to $260 if it continues to drop and it goes all the way back to $200 and then reverses and goes back up to 260 then it's going to be a flag pattern but on both patterns the price of 260 is the critical turning point of a breakout move all right let's talk about candles and I'm going to talk about some candles we've been getting getting but I'm also going to talk about what type of candle we want to get we've been getting some smaller tighter dogee candles at the bottom of the range means that the Bulls and the Bears are beginning to fight a little bit more at this price point because this price point makes sense for buyers to come back in now what we're looking for though is a final battle between the Bulls and the Bears and a capitulation candle that would end the day looking like a hammer candle and if that battle raged throughout the week we had two or three days down and two or three strong days up and we got a weekly Hammer candle that would be even better now the RSI after I spent a fair amount of time looking at it was in my mind somewhat bearish I didn't get a strong bullish read on the RSI and that's concerning because after the prices come down this much I would want to see more bullish Divergence but I can't really say that it's there I felt that the uh momentum was largely flat and that's why I believe that we're going to have some form of a capitulation moment down on Tesla because the momentum on the RSI seems to imply that's what it's setting up for to me now all of this brings us to the big question should I buy the Tesla dip in 2024 I'm going to give you guys my answer here in just a minute but let me give you a prediction of what I think is going to happen or could happen with Tesla everything's bearish right now we've been here before this is when people are afraid to buy it's you know every day the stock drops further and further we're all like that jump roper at the beginning of the video trying to figure out where to get in but we don't want to land on our face here's what I think is likely going to happen I think that we're going to come down as low as $200 which is kind of scary still at this point and I believe that we're going to then have a reversal moment that's not going to be terribly strong and that could be a reason why a lot of people will not jump right in but I believe at that point that we're going to see somewhat of a melt up for the next six months all the way back to 260 and eventually to 315 by July that's my prediction on Tesla is there a point of no return what if I'm wrong I'm not always right so is there a point of no return Yes there absolutely is a point of no return and a lot of people are having to look at their Tesla portfolios and I'm one of them and ask myself okay is there a point in which I get entirely out if this thing breaks below a my comfort threshold well first of all I'll tell you guys it's definitely getting near to my comfort threshold and I would say that I have been considering the $180 level as a ultimate stoploss point I am a strong believer in stop losses and personally I don't believe that you can be a successful Trader without using stop losses and I at the moment I wanted to be able to give you guys some area where I thought uh an ultimate Line in the Sand would be and for me and my portfolio and my average price that would be somewhere around $180 the reason why I'm making this part of this video is because I want each and every one of you guys to remember that I don't I'm not loyal to companies stocks Technologies or ideas I'm fascinated by them but not loyal to them and I don't know that you should be either people get caught up in the story as they trade the story not the stock if this thing were honestly to close beneath 200 and even then close beneath 180 for me that would mean it's time to get out and see ultimately where this thing is going and wait for a confirmation to get back in I don't see that it's going to do that I personally think that we're going to stop at 200 and if we didn't stop at 200 and we broke beneath 200 I think it would very likely bounce at 180 but if it didn't that would be the line in the sand for me but to be clear my prediction for 2024 is that we do come down somewhere closer to $200 and then we have a six Monon melt up pushing us back up to 315 that's what I think is going to happen in the next 6 months and and as I said a moment ago I'm bullish because elon's bullish because he is renegotiating his position right now because he believes that there's incredible opportunity coming down the pipeline you have to remember that Elon in his life has been the richest man in the world and I think that that's a coveted spot that number one spot is one he may be moving his way back towards with these robots we going to have to watch and see it's one of the most fascinating stories on Wall Street and I love covering it I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts in the comments section let me know what you're doing with Tesla what's your Line in the Sand when are you going to buy more I'd love to hear from you let me know as always peace and blessings we'll see you in the comments take care
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