저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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마이크론은 2025년 들어 17.2% 상승했으나 DCF 내재가치 $140 대비 현재가 $98.60로 여전히 저평가. 매출은 2005년 49억에서 TTM 313억 달러로 성장(CAGR 10%+), 영업현금흐름 회복(131억 달러), 투하자본수익률 8.1%(과거 피크 47.6%). 선행 PER 11.25배는 16배 수준 대비 저평가로 판단. 4월 6일 매수 의견 재확인.
다듬은 글
Micron Technology stock is up over 17.2% in 2025 as the stock has rallied in the last month, month and a half or so due to, you know, some positive macroeconomic news. To be sure, President Donald Trump's trip overseas resulted in many billions of dollars in new sales for semiconductor companies, including Nvidia and AMD.
And uh Micron Technology operates in very similar industries. So, some of the things that are good for Nvidia and AMD are also good for Micron Technology and the semiconductor industry overall. And you've seen that tailwind so far in the previous few weeks. But what about right now after the stock price increase?
Should investors still buy Micron stock or if you owned it, should you take profits now? What does the business look like longer term? What's the valuation? And is it overvalued or undervalued? I'll answer all of those questions in this video. which calculates what I believe to be the fair value for Micron's stock today and I'll answer if I think the stock is a buy at these current market pricever the years, Micron has done a great job in ex increasing its revenue from $4.9 billion in revenue in 2005 all the way up to $31.3 billion in revenue in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
So over that time, that's been a compounded annual growth rate of over 10%. which is strong for a period that long. But something that's concerning for Micron investors is if you look from 2018 to 2025, the growth has been much more muted from 30.4 billion to 31.3 billion. You can say that growth was hardly existent in that time as the cyclical bottom took much longer and was much deeper and the recovery has started.
Right? This is a very cyclical industry. The recovery is well underway as you can see with the revenue. But investors were concerned that perhaps this peak cycle would not be as anticipated or as expect as was the case in previous years. Maybe now the company has reached a sort of uh plateau where its revenue even during the peak periods don't exceed all that much above $30 billion.
But I haven't believed that to be the case. That's why I've had Micron stock rated as a buy for several years now. And coming into 2025, I reiterated my buy recommendation. I told investors I thought Micron stock made an excellent long-term investment at the current uh market prices. So in addition to the recovery in the company's revenue, they also started recovering the cash flow from operations.
You can see the cyclical bottom there at 1.6 billion. And the recovery is underway. 8.5 billion in 2024 and 13.1 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period. And I'm fully expecting the cash flow from operations to go well above the previous peak of 15.2 billion, perhaps approaching $20 billion given the structural improvements industrywide in demand for this technology.
The returns on investor capital for Micron Technology are also underway under the recovery 8.1% in the most recent trailing 12-month period. The previous peak was 47.6% reached in 2018. While Micron may or may not approach 47.6% 6%. Uh longer term, I think the average return on investor capital during a cycle for Micron Technology, I believe they will be able to deliver that well above their weighted average cost of capital, which is an important criteria I consider when I'm evaluating a stock is the return on investor capital divided by the weighted average cost of capital.
And in a cyclical business like Micron Technology, I would take the average figure over a decade and compare that with the weighted average cost of capital. By the way, the charts you're seeing I'm getting are from finthat.io. There's a link in the description for a discount on their service if you use my affiliate link.
So now that we looked at some of their longerterm pro uh numbers in revenue and margins and returns, let's go into valuation. And for Micron, I have the intrinsic value calculated at $140 a share. The current market price is $9860. So my intrinsic value calculation says that this business is undervalued at current market prices.
That's the outcome of this calculation. Now the inputs I have the company's weighted average cost of capital at 10.85% with a relatively low cost of debt of 6 and a4%. And the capital asset pricing model cost of equity at 11.66%. So those are the factors I used as inputs uh into this calculation which takes the present value of all of the free cash flow I expect Micron Technology to generate between today and the very very long run and discounts those future cash flows back to today to this point in time.
And the reason I discount them and I don't just count them as is at 100% of all future free cash flow is because money in the future is worth less to us than money today. Because money today is already in our pocket. There's no risk associated with that. It's already here. I can do whatever I want with it.
There's no chance that it won't be there. It's already there. But money in the future, it's never guaranteed that these expectations come to fruition. So you have to account for that fact by taking off some percentage of these expected free cash flows as the risk of maybe you don't get as much as expected.
And then secondly, we have to incorporate the fact that if these dollars were in our pocket today, we could invest it in a super safe certificate of deposit and earn around four 4.5% on those funds. So we have to account for that time value into those future valuations. So this valuation metric, the framework, the proprietary model I created accounts for all of that according to my estimates and that's the value I get after accounting for all of those factors.
$140, current market price only 98. So it looks undervalued still to me. Now I also like t and Micron is selling at a forward PE of 11 and a quarter which I also think is undervalued for this kind of business in this industry. I I do think this industry the valuations are never going to be really really high.
You're not going to see these companies trading at forward price to earnings of like 50 or 75 or anything like that. But I think a forward PE for Micron approaching 16 uh wouldn't be that unreasonable and so at 11 and a quarter I think is undervalued. So both valuation metrics I look at with Micron it still looks undervalued even after it's up today.
So I will reiterate my buy recommendation. As you can see I last updated Micron Technology on April 6th and rated the stock as a buy. Uh thankfully the stock is up a lot since I made this re recommendation. I don't know precisely how much but I know that the stock has been on a rally over these last few weeks and the stock price has increased meaningfully.
It's up 17% on the year. So I'll reiterate this recommendation. I still like this business long-term a.
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