저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 2025년 들어 69% 상승했으나 선행 PER 28배로 고평가 상태라고 진단. 2026년 EPS 0.73달러 기준, PER이 150으로 하락하면 주가 110달러, 100이면 73달러 하락 가능성을 제시. 기업 펀더멘털(매출 성장, 고객 유지율, 미국 상업 매출)은 우수하다고 평가하며 2025년 말 목표가를 110~130달러(기존 75~85달러에서 상향)로 조정. 투자 등급은 밸류에이션 부담으로 매수 추천은 하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Palanteer stock has been on an absolute tear in 2025. In fact, the share price is up over 69% already year to date, and it's not even halfway through 2025 just yet. Now, my price prediction, my previous price prediction for Palanteer stock in 2025, the price has already exceeded that expectation by a significant amount.
In fact, I've repeatedly told investors that I felt Palanteer stock was overvalued all year long while the share price continued to rise. So, this is definitely a stock that I have underestimated in 2025. So, I'm re-evaluating the business here today. I'm updating my stock price prediction for Palunteer stock in 2025.
And you might be surprised to see my revision in Palunteer stock. Let me share with you those details. If you've been watching my videos regularly, you'll know that I use finchat.io regularly on a daily basis. They're a stock research platform that has information on all stocks globally. They're the only platform that has information on company specific metrics, segment specific metrics like AWS cloud revenue.
Finch.io will give you two weeks free and a 15% discount if you use my description in the link below. All right. To make my stock price prediction for Palunteer stock for 2025, I am going to use the forward price to earnings ratio, which currently stands at 28. It's uh the most expensive this stock has been going all the way back to early 2022.
So, you can see by this chart here, the forward price to earnings, you can see why I've been saying that the stock has been overvalued all year long. This is one of the valuation metrics I've been looking at with Palunteer stock as well as other valuation metrics and they all point to the stock being overvalued.
But regardless of the fact that I felt the stock is overvalued, the stock price has increased and that can be the case for the rest of the year as well. Just because I think a stock is overvalued doesn't mean the stock price cannot continue moving higher. It just makes valuation a significant risk for investors because should there be a change in the sentiment and the forward price to earnings multiple contracts, it can mean the stock price declines very quickly, very rapidly and investors can lose a lot of money.
So the other thing I'm going to use to make this stock price prediction is the earnings per share estimate for 2026. You can see here that investors are expecting Palunteer to deliver 73 cents in earnings per share for fiscal year 2026. And since I'm using the forward price to earnings ratio to evaluate what the stock price will be by the end of this year, I need the earnings per share expectations for 2026 to make my prediction for the end of year 2025.
All right. So here I have my prediction model for Palunteer. Now you look here 2026 the earnings per share estimate which I got from finchhat.io. I shared with you those numbers. And the forward price to earnings ratio the current 208 figure. I also got that from finchhat.io. I shared that with you as well.
So if the company's earnings per share continues on pace for 73 cents in 2026, the stock price and the forward price to earnings multiple stays the same. The stock price could rise to $152 by the end of the year. Remember the current price is $128. So that would be an upside of roughly 20%. But I don't think the forward price to earnings ratio is going to remain at these record high levels.
I'm predicting that the forward price to earnings ratio will decline. Now, I don't think this is a bad business. I've been saying all year long, in fact, for many years, I've been saying what a great business Palunteer is. Great margins, great business model, great product, incredible customer value proposition, accelerating revenue growth.
I could go on and on about how great the business is. My only reason for not recommending the stock as a buy in 2025 has been valuation. In fact, in early 2024, I did have the stock rated as a buy for several months to start 2024. I had the stock rated as a buy. I only downgraded it after the valuation reached these record highs.
So, I am expecting the forward price to earnings multiple to decline. And if it declines to 150, the stock price could fall to $110 per share. If the forward PE were to fall to 100, the stock price could fall to 73. And if the forward PE were to fall to 75, the stock price could fall to $55 per share.
And so you can understand what I was talking about with the risk of the valuation contracting and how much downside that could mean for Palunteer stock price if the valuation contracts, if the valuation shrinks and that could happen for a number of reasons. If the sentiment and the enthusiasm because Palanteer is a very popular stock right now.
If that sentiment and enthusiasm were to evaporate, then the multiple could decline. Overall, I'm not expecting a very dramatic decline down all the way to 75 for the forward PE multiple. I'm forecasting a more moderate decline of the forward PE multiple down around 150. So overall, my prediction, my 2025 prediction for where I think Palunteer stock will end this year is a share price between $110 per share and $130 per share.
Now, that estimate is significantly higher than where I estimated the stock price in my previous estimate. And let me share that with you. So, my last update for Palunteer stock and my price prediction was on March 14th, 2025. And I estimated the share price would end the year between $75 and $85 per share.
And I had that recommendation or that rating on March 14, 2025. So, my current estimate that I just shared with you in this video of $120 at the midpoint is 50% higher than when I previously had the stock recommended uh just a couple of months ago. And the big thing that changed between then and now is Palunteer's performance.
The company reported excellent quarterly financial results where they accelerated revenue growth. They reported very high customer retention ratios. They reported accelerating growth in US commercial revenue, which is the segment for Palunteer that I've been most excited about because the opportunity in US enterprises is so much larger than its opportunity for US government revenue.
And they've had so much success in that category that I've been growing increasingly bullish on Palunteer stock. Now, you might say, "Well, you've been a bear on Palunteer stock. You've been telling us that it's overvalued and you don't like the you don't like the stock." And that's not the case. I do like the stock.
I like the business, but it's just so expensive right now. Uh I would love to be able to buy this stock at a more uh reasonable valuation. And so I'm updating this uh rating here, this stock price prediction to between 110 and 130. So let me update that as you're watching this 110 and 130. And I'm updating this recommendation or prediction on May 13th, 2025.
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