저자: JJ · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 'Taking the Temperature' 메모를 소개하며, 시장 극단(버블·폭락)에서만 시장 온도를 재고 역발상 투자하면 된다는 결론을 강조한다. 막스는 2000~2020년 사이 시장 콜을 5번만 했고 모두 맞혔다고 소개된다. 그는 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴를 1999년 메모 'bubble.com'에서 경고했다. 2004~2007년에는 저금리와 낮은 기대수익률, 주택시장의 과열을 감지해 방어적으로 전환했고, 2007년 메모 이후 2008년 금융위기가 왔다. 2008년 9월 극단적 비관기에 대규모 매수를 집행했다. 바닥을 몰라도 하락 중 분할 매수가 낫다는 논리다. 2012년에는 '주식의 죽음' 기사(1979년)와 비교하며 비관이 극에 달했을 때 매수했고, 2012~2021년 S&P500 연 16.5% 수익률을 언급한다. 2020년 3월 팬데믹 폭락 때도 바닥을 모르지만 하락 중 매수를 주장했다. 현재 AI 버블 가능성과 일부 영역의 극단적 낙관을 언급하며, 막스는 거시예측이 아니라 시장 온도 측정이라고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
everyone JJ here with the Outer Valley welcome well today I want to look at some recent writing by legendary investor Howard marks it's called taking the temperature he's talking about taking the temperature of the stock market at any one time he looks at how he's got some Market calls right from 20 022 I always got Market calls right over the years from 2000 to 2020 he made five Market calls and got them right and he explains how he got them right and how we can do that too in the future so let's get into it Mark said when he was working on his book in 2017 mastering the market cycle which is a really good book by the way I'll put a link to that in the description he was talking to his son about it and he said that you know I think that all the market calls I've made over the years have been right he was quite astonished by that and as Sunset well here Dad that's because you've only made five calls in 50 years and Max thought about it and he said that was absolutely correct he'd only made five calls in about 50 years on which way the market was going to ago so he decided to go back through the memos that he writes the famous Howard Mark's memo to see what he was thinking at the time that he made these calls why he was correct about them what led him to be correct about these five calls that he made about turning points in the market first he talks about the.com bust in 2000 and he said in 1999 he read a really good book called devil take the hindmost by Edward Chancellor another really good book I'll put that in the description as well I read that actually leading up to 2020 the crash of 2020 I read that book it's an excellent book I've read it a couple of times and so he said he read that book and in the book he was struck by how similar it was to that time period 1999 during the.com bubble so a lot of people couldn't see there was a babble Howard Max did see that it was above when he felt that a lot of things in that book about bubbles over the centuries were similar to what he was seeing in the Market at that time what he saw at the time in the market that's laid out in that book with bubbles throughout history is the one willingness of people to leave their day jobs to chase easy profits in the market putting money into Investments that were speculative that companies that had no profits and that stocks could only go up the market could only go up a feeling of extreme optimism and that's what he saw at the time in 1999.
he saw people investing in companies with business models that couldn't be explained and he said these things rhymed with bubbles throughout history they went exactly the same it's never exactly the same but it definitely rhymed and he laid it out in a memo at the time called bubble.com just as 2000 began in January 2000 and the bust did not come very long after that at all an irrationally elevated opinion of an asset or sector is how he defines a bubble and that's exactly what he saw in the late 90s especially 1999 leading up to the bust he said people were investing at multiples of Revenue and some of these companies didn't even have revenue and the business models were very questionable hadn't been proven at all so he wrote in that memo that that was the case and that he saw a bust coming in that memo he wrote in short I find the evidence of an overheated speculative marketing technology internet and communication stocks overwhelming as are the similarities to past manias he said the reason that the bubble burst back then was for no other reason that the stocks became unsustainably High there was no real trigger to burst it so it's very hard to predict when these things will burst so the S P 500 dropped 46 from its 2000 High and the NASDAQ dropped 80 percent from a tie and it took a couple of years to do it a lengthy bear Market there from the peak of that bubble next he turns to the period 2004 to 2007 after that bubble and he refers to that as a slow developing train wreck as he saw it here he says that it was a bit too soon in calling this out he says that the Fed was being very accommodative put lowering rentress rates lowering rates to get through this.com whole bust earlier but they were being too accommodating and it was leading to bad things in that environment in 2004 he observed and wrote that he thought that the prospective Returns on many assets were unusually low had become unusually low and that investors he saw were taking unusually high risks and looking at alternative Investments risky investments in 2005 he discussed some of those Alternatives including residential real estate and he observed that investors were taking unusual risks and embracing the fallacy that house prices only go up at the time he saw some crazy deals being done and he said that they agreed at the time and their firm that if deals like this could be done then there was something wrong with the market he said he didn't know exactly what was wrong with it where the problem was but he knew there was a problem with the market because of the problems they saw in the market they decided to move to more a defensive stunts and their funds they sold some assets liquidated some things and Readiness for what they thought might be coming know what exactly what but they just saw that the temperature was too hot and they needed to be more defensive in 2007 he wrote another memo called it's all good and of course it wasn't he he observed that it'd become even riskier and the prospective Returns on investments had become pretty low he saw lots of risks being taken by investors in the market and it was a bit of a warning and he was pretty much dead on this time in 2007 and of course things hit the fan in 2008 he said it was eight months after that that bear Stearns melted down and Lehman Brothers went under and Morgan Stanley Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch was rescued by Bank of America as a chain reaction after that eight months after he wrote that memo about the dangers of what he saw in the environment at the time it wasn't a stock market bubble of course this time but it did affect the stock market the S P 500 dropped 53 from its 2007 high so it really did impact the stock market and the whole economy this time there was a lot of impact he said his company had no assets in subprime at the time but this subprime so-called assets did affect the whole economic system as we all know so he says he really didn't know the source of the problem that was about to happen but he said it's a good example of what he calls taking the temperature of the market he took the temperature of the market saw that it was hot saw that there were problems didn't know exactly what they were and decided to be more defensive and then wait and look what happened now if you're getting value out of this episode so if I do think about subscribing if you're not already to get more of this kind of investing content in the future also thanks to those people on Spotify I just realized that the show has got a 4.9 star rating I hadn't looked at that before I hadn't asked people to rate it so thank you to those people who have done that when things fell apart in 2008 things really fell apart things were very pessimistic very Bleak there was talk of the whole economic system collapsing he thought at that time that they had to decide if they were buying opportunities out there what they would do very difficult to do at the time they took the opinion that things would probably get better in terms of probabilities and if it did one day get better companies would still make money and these would be some really good buying opportunities even if it wasn't the bottom yet and that's exactly what they did they put money to work they put a huge amount of money to work from September 2008 a very blank period and that turned out in the long run to be correct but very hard to do not many people were doing that then it worked out very well he said he didn't know where the bottom of the market was it was impossible to know and as value investors say it's better to invest on the way down and just keep investing more if you can as it goes down because you never know where the bottom is so if things are very Bleak and pessimistic that's a good time to invest and that turned out to be correct in this case so again he said he was just taking the temperature of the market so he wasn't predicting anything he didn't know what would happen he was just taking the temperature and he said it was very cold at that time and saw a buying opportunity because of that it was such a contrast from being a very hot Market they had no idea how low it would go but it turned out to be that good buying opportunity because the market was so cold and so pessimistic the next time period Max talks about is 2012 he makes the point that stocks didn't really go anywhere all the way from 2000 the.com bubble to 2011 the market the S P 500 returned about 0.5 through all that time so people did get disillusioned who were involved in the.com bubble they were kind of not interested in the stock market and then the great financial crisis happened not long after that really so people were really not interested in the stock market until for that long period of time where it did not go anywhere he talks about the temperature of the market back then being pretty low he talked about this article the death of equities which came out in 1979 and he saw parallels to that time in 1959 with the stock market it really gone nowhere for a long time during the 70s it was not great and he saw 2011 2012 being this period he thought there was a lot of pessimism around people had given up on equities and this article called out the death of equities that that wasn't going to go anywhere for a long time still and there's a lot of pessimism around it was kind of like the nail in the coffin that set the stock market's over and soon after that it had an incredible run after 1979 all through the 80s it really had a great run leading up to this the.com bubble so all through the 90s as well all through the 80s and 90s stock market did very well and he saw this parallel with the feeling of the environment the temperature of the market at that time and he thought that that might be a good time to invest and indeed it was a bull market from then leading up to 2020 if you think of the stock market from 2012 to 2020 it had very good returns it's when so-called growth invested very well growth companies it was a long bull run after this very stagnant period where it went nowhere so as memo at the time was called deja vu all over again where he made parallels to that time when this article came out and people thought the stock market was continuing to be stagnant was going to continue like that for a long time nobody saw any upside to the stock market people had lost interest and lost hope in their stock market ever going up again and he saw parallels and this time and so he was taking the temperature of the market thinking there's a good chance a good probability that stocks will do quite well over the coming period not being stagnant at all from 2012 to 2021 the S P 500 returned 16.5 percent a year which is a really good run and he makes the point that negative sentiment in the market resulted in Superior gains over the next time so being contrarian is what's needed at a time with negative sentiment or overly optimistic sentiment as well both of those things but not being just contrarian for contrarians contrarian for Kira not being contrarian for contrarian's sake all the time but picking the times this times that he picked in the market and when there's a negative sentiment or a positive sentiment to the extreme that's the time to think about being contrarian the last of his five calls was in March 2020 of course that was the pandemic we will remember what happened we've all lived through that and in February 2020 by that time the news was out this pandemic was happening and the market panicked in the space of one month from mid-February 2020 to March the market dropped by almost a third the U.S market that is and other markets around the world there was total panic and that was a very fastball in historical terms again people didn't know it was going to happen and then the economy was shutting down it was panic and fear all around in the market dropped by a third so a lot of people sold so again he makes the point of taking the temperature of the market suddenly things were very pessimistic people thought that the whole system would collapse the economy was shutting down and he took the attitude that he didn't know where the bottom was there was no way of knowing and he thought that it would be a good idea to invest on the way down saying the market had dropped so much in a short time he didn't know where the bottom was nobody did but they say it's better to invest on the way down because you don't know that you don't know where it's going to go and there's a good chance a good probability that it would turn up eventually over the long term so in hindsight it was a good time to invest and he said he thought that at the time he said so that is this is the probability that this is a good time to buy not to sell and panic he also makes the point that it wasn't easy to be contrarian at the time when everybody was panicking but rather than have paralysis either selling or sitting pad to go in and buy very difficult because it was one of the most challenging times that he's ever invested through again we can all remember the fear around what was going on there in terms of buying at that time it was a difficult time to go in and buy especially when things went down so fast it caught a lot of people by surprise but he was saying that to keep your head in those times and to go in and buy is a is a contrarian thing to do and very difficult but that's what good investors must do he talks about how we can all make these right Market calls the way that he has part of what he said is that he only made five of them over that long since 2000 which is not very many he said he could have made Market calls all the time as you see in financial media you can people make calls about where the Market's going week to week day to day even he said he could have made 50 calls he could have made 500 calls over that time but he only made five and it was when when the market was very extreme either to the upside or downside the pessimism Market Psychology was extreme to one side or the other or there had been that long period of stagnation and that had caused a lot of pessimism so it's about probabilities taking the temperature of the market and only when it's at an extreme can you kind of make that call that's what he's saying that's why he says everybody can do it so it's about history rhyming learning from history seeing these Bubbles and busts and extremes and learning from that the probability of the similar thing happening again that similarities to the Past he said that he made these calls from 2000 but he was actually investing for 30 years before that so it took him 30 years to kind of start making these correct calls it took him experience of seeing the history of the market seeing what happens in these extreme situations before that and being able to make these calls and as he said not making them all the time only making them on these rare occasions he emphasizes that this is not about making macroeconomic predictions it's about taking the temperature of the market it is about seeing the in economic environment at the time taking the temperature of that not predicting what's going to happen next it's not about that it's not about knowing that he is a fundamental investor looks at fundamentals rather than the macroeconomic situation say something like Stanley druckenmiller who makes calls all the time even from week to week and changes his mind very few people can do that but I think we could agree that a lot of people could take the temperature like this we could see the extremes of the.com bubble of what happened in 2020 when the market crashed and indeed after that in 2021 and 2020 when there was so much stimulus and there was a lot of speculation around so much speculation if you think of the specs and the price multiples that some companies were trading at had a huge multiples to revenue let alone profits and that led to a bubble I think at the time so he talks about pattern recognition in the market being important seeing these extremes over time the highs and lows and the investor sentiment the market Cycles mastering the market cycle his book is talks about it and there he talks about all of this stuff in there a lot of the stuff and they will take the hindmost studying the bubbles in history I found that very instructive in 2021 after the crash happened in 2020 I did see a lot of speculation I was reading that book at the time before that actually before that all happened and I did see some some rhyming and similar Charities with some of those great bubbles in the past with these speculative Innovation stocks that had no profits little Revenue that went to the moon there was stonks only go up there were a lot of new investors in the market a lot of speculation and nfts and specs so many things it was there was a lot of rhyming going on there I thought too I think this is a really instructive Memo from Howard marks this time about taking the temperature of the market at any one time we've seen quite a lot in the stock market over the last few years we've seen highs and lows extreme optimism and extreme pessimism as he's talked about here so it would be interesting to see what happens over the next decade we're long-term investors so are we going to see any of these extremes again in the market we can see some in the AI bubble which I think is a bubble is Extreme optimism in that particular area but in other areas not so much so it's going to be interesting over the next few years to see what happens if taking the temperature of the market now about six months ago I made an episode about what Howard Max was saying about it historic sea change happening in the market he sticks by that I'm going to put that there if you're on YouTube or in the description of your elsewhere go and see that now it's interesting to see what he said back then and thanks for watching or listening this time and I'll see you in the next one
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