저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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인플레이션보다 디플레이션 위험이 크다고 보며, 혁신(DNA 시퀀싱·로봇·에너지저장·AI·블록체인)과 생산성 향상으로 2035년 미국 GDP가 선형 성장 전망(28조달러)을 넘어 40조달러에 이를 것이라 주장. 노동생산성 상승이 임금 상승분을 상쇄해 물가 안정이 가능하다고 봄. 테슬라 등 EV 시장은 승자독식 경향이 있다고 언급. 자막 오타 다수 및 중간에 보험 광고가 섞여 있음.
다듬은 글
kathy wood's latest a warning for markets and at the same time i am going to incorporate something that's really really important no not just a newspaper but the financial times hidden all the way on page 17 way at the bottom is something really important that we're going to talk about that relates to this in just a moment but first we're gonna mention that you should get life insurance in as little as five minutes via the link down below go to my kevin.com life or use that link down below to apple pay or android pay for life insurance you can get in as little as five minutes for now though we will listen to what kathy woods greatest fear is going forward all right let's listen in folks see what we got we've been saying for some time that the the risk to uh the economy is more on the side of deflation and inflation so uh as kovid took uh you know created all the um uh destruction that it did and quick note worth noting that she's starting off right away by saying hey risk here deflation not inflation that is the opposite of what consumers feel right now consumer expectations are that inflation is going to be at all time highs for years and years and years going forward but is it possible that consumers are actually lagging in their expectations of what's going to happen that is consumers should have felt this way a year ago for high inflation now now we're in high inflation now consumers suddenly think inflation's going to stay around forever and are they going to be wrong are we actually going to deflate let's see why kathy wood is into deflation and then we got to talk about something in that article that's going to be very important supply chains really being thrown off we've been through a period here of inflation which i think investors are baking into the cake that's the that's the underlying assumption out there that we're in an inflationary period and that it was turbocharged uh by the supply chain disruptions uh that occurred during the herona virus and of course they will they will be focused on monetary policy when they say that um she's essentially saying hey look if investors are worried that inflation is getting worse because of supply chain issues they're going to look at every single word that the federal reserve says because when the federal reserve talks it kind of gives us a little bit of a heads up in terms of oh what's the fed going to do about inflation do they actually think it's here to stay or are they suggesting it's here longer or what and that is actually exactly what jerome paul is saying he's saying inflation has lasted longer and been more present than it was initially expected however they still expect inflation to inflict downwards now will inflation inflect all the way downwards to a deflationary level let's see student of economic history and i've lived quite a bit of it myself so i've seen a lot of markets and started in the business during the 70s i was in college when inflation was raging so i i know what that is and i truly believe we are not going back there and that anyone uh planning uh for it is probably going to be making some mistakes so the three sources of deflation that we see um to go into a little more detail uh on the innovation side pay attention by the way to this part because it's going to relate to something very very important here a lot of people have been talking about this right here being a big cause for inflation coming but the counter argument here is insane so we're setting this up with kathy the trojan horsey end of this and i'm being transparent about my horse logically enabled innovation we are in a period today like we have never been never i mean you have to go back to telephone electricity and automobile to see three major technologically enabled sources of innovation evolving at the same time today we have five five platforms uh dna sequencing robotics uh energy storage artificial intelligence and blockchain technology all of all five of those things by the way have nothing to do with the first three things like we didn't have dna sequencing back in the day it didn't have artificial intelligence back in the day or robotics back in the day uh it's it's incredible the the place we're in right now and she's right i mean think about it look when the iphone first came out i was using the t-mobile razer and that was cool why was it cool because it had a color screen and it was more pleasant to send texts in it still had a physical keyboard the iphone came out and people are like oh my gosh there's no keyboard whatever will we do humans must feel a response from a key in order to be able to type boy what a inappropriate argument that was from consumer reports consumer reports did a whole piece about how getting rid of the keyboard was the stupidest thing you could ever do that aged well but anyway let's keep going here because obviously and ask yourself how much more productive really like what do you think about this remote let's say the t-mobile razor is 400 and the iphone's 1600 right so the cost is 4x it's four times as expensive let's say uh back in you know back in the day uh how uh but then again i am comparing uh the the and so i really have to ask you to say how much more productive could you be on an iphone today compared to a t-mobile razer back in 2007.
probably 10 to 20 to 50 x with apps navigation uh background app notifications for news emails text messages face time zoom on your phone uh hot spotting to your laptop so you could take your laptop and actually function out in society don't get me wrong i was able to hotspot back in 2008 because i remember taking my big old 17-inch toshiba laptop to go play world of warcraft on it on the travel by tethering it but i couldn't actually do anything other than kind of standing there and trying to hit rock nodes because there's no way you're fighting tethering back in 2007 but i think the point here is very clear yes technology makes things much more efficient let's keep going which are deflationary and not just by a little bit either and that's why i made this argument is that generally technology makes things cheaper like a flat screen tv for example that used to cost two thousand dollars i know that because i sold my world of warcraft account made the dumbest financial decision ever and took that two thousand dollars and bought a 48 uh 48 inch flat screen tv for 2 000 sony bravia hdtv my dad ended up taking it from me because he really liked it uh we we agreed to that i wasn't using it as much uh and i should have invested that but nobody taught me that anyway i had to learn that all myself but the point is that tv today is something you could pick up for like 300 right that's deflation in technology another form of deflation even when phones are getting more expensive is the fact that your productivity is skyrocketing that folks is a very important key that i'm dropping you for what we're about to talk about jeff gundlach and howard marks and i think stan druckenmiller and ray dalio all of them i think have been very very concerned about um a deflationary bust and uh we agree with them uh in this respect uh we think it's going to be balanced by a deflationary boom so that's where we differ but where we agree is that this is actually a very big fork here okay ray dalio thinks that as prices fall potentially the economy slows people are going to get into the great de-leveraging pay off debt pay after pay after pay off debt the economy shrinks even more and more and more and potentially collapses in a deflationary spiral kathy wood thinks no as prices come down we're going to become so much more efficient and so much more productive and our economy is actually going to grow much faster than we think it's going to grow different trains of thought i am on the side of kathy here but i still listen to ray dalio and the others like the buries of the world and so on there are companies who thought the world would never change and uh have been again catering uh to short-term shareholders who wanted that extra penny or two in earnings and so got it uh by having the companies leverage up and take more debt and shrink the number of shares uh and they've also been um focused on dividends uh they are probably saddled with products and services that will become obsolete because of the record-breaking amount of innovation taking place today and in order to service their debt they are going to have to cut prices uh and this by the way is just a reference to companies that are more indebted like let's say ford motors has a lot of debt personally i don't think like they're overly indebted like i don't think ford's going anywhere anytime soon obviously i prefer the teslas and the neos of the world but uh and i do disagree and depart from kathy wood here where she suggests that tesla and the automotive space is going to be a winner take all or when you take most space she doesn't say all she says most uh i i think there's going to be a healthy amount of competition in evs i do think tesla's going to take the toyota lion's share but that only needs to be like 15 of the market i think there'll be plenty of room for like a neo to hang out with five percent or something like that maybe even more i will see i i would honestly love to to drive a neo if anybody has a connection with where i could try out a neo i will fly to china hit me up okay staff meet kevin dot com all right let's keep going move those uh those goods and services that are on their way out anyway uh so i i am concerned about that and oh uh and in case i didn't finish that thought basically if ford has a lot of debt the argument is that they might have to drop their prices to service their debt to stay competitive and that's deflationary so you've got innovation deflation you've got dropping your prices because you're no longer competitive deflation and then of course we continue on and according to our estimates in the year 2035 because of automation and artificial intelligence we believe that gdp here in the united states will not be 28 trillion which would be a if you drew the growth linear growth that's where it would be but instead will be 40 trillion dollars and it is our okay that is a big claim she's suggesting then rather than our gdp growing from 20 uh 21 trillion dollars to let's say 28 kind of that linear growth which linear growth just means line right just moving up uh just to give you a quick little example here we'll jump right over here so uh linear growth this this is what kathy is saying these are sort of the estimates now that by 2035 will be somewhere like this she's suggesting that this is wrong that because of increases in productivity we're actually going to see something more uh more in line with this 40 trillion dollars as a gdp by 2035 and the difference here this uh this extra fat here so to speak that is productivity due to none other than innovation boom and that's what kathy would invest in after all i like investing in that too let's keep going uh focused only on innovation to figure out where that extra 12 trillion dollars is going to come from and then to educate and orient our investors of course but also parents and grandparents you know how where how should you educate your children you know how should you steer them so that they are on the right side of change because there are going to be so many exciting opportunities wow that is incredible incredible piece here but what's more interesting maybe not necessarily more interesting but equally interesting is this right here kathy would briefly touch us on it but folks this is so understated every time i hear people talk about inflation they're like well people are paying more money for people who work minimum wage jobs it's like yeah we get it because less of those less people who and this is statistical less people working minimum wage jobs are vaccinated therefore they're more likely to want to stay home or away from cove potential exposure at least that's what some studies have shown it's not going to be true for everyone it's just an increased percentage of people who work uh service jobs are less likely to be vaccinated therefore less likely to want to return to work which is one of the reasons there were so many arguments around oh well maybe people go back to work after the unemployment boost expires whatever the point is we still have an elevated unemployment rate and so people are wondering okay does this mean wages are going to continue to go up and if wages continue to go up does that mean we're going to continue to see inflation because if wages go up this is like the child argument here like this is very very basic level economics okay basic level economics well if i pay somebody eight dollars an hour to make this cup but now i have to pay them ten dollars an hour to make this cup i'll have to raise the price of the cup by probably somewhere around three dollars or two dollars and fifty cents to make up for those higher wages and the extra additional costs that go with higher wages like workers comp and insurances and blah blah blah blah so wait just go up prices must go that's the very elementary argument right that's like econ like 100 we're not even at 101 yet right that's basing okay you want to you want to graduate to to like the higher advanced levels of economics that's what you're here for okay good this was a great piece ready for this okay the great inflation debate is it sustained or transitory and one of the most important features of the consumer price index or the measure of inflation and inflation in general is labor costs and labor costs are not just the wages that you pay this is really important and i think this gets missed so much especially here on youtube is when people think wages up they immediately think that's it inflation must be going up right but there's this this forgotten aspect of wait a minute there are two parts to wages wages are the uh the actual uh hourly rate that you pay so this is sort of the hourly rate you could even call this sort of labor cost and then you can call this hourly wages just to make this a little bit more clear but the other factor that goes into this is very important and it's productivity what if the person that i pay ten dollars an hour to make this cup can actually make me two cups and make you know even though i'm paying them uh you know 15 more what if they can double their output and we can do 100x on on our cup production right so productivity very important now kathy touched on this but didn't go deep on this this was interesting this author says if productivity accelerates unit labor cost should remain stable and show should prices so as long as wages go up with increasing worker productivity we shouldn't actually see labor costs the top costs before the fork go up and what's really cool is you could just type into google st louis fred labor productivity and you'll get this first google result here labor productivity output per hour all employed individuals let's go to just the last five years here look at this inflection point after the pandemic so starting in uh well i mean i guess you could really say well it's q2 all of this right here is really cute too uh in q2 this inflection to the upside if we drew this trend line continued you know we did some technical analysis here we'd be shy of where we are now maybe we'd be somewhere right here at this gray or a marker or a reading of about 110 and we're actually at one one two five and we expect that pace of change that rate of change to accelerate in favor of more productivity as people start going back to work uh and continue to go back to work since people have already started go back to work if productivity accelerates uh the prices should remain stable here is another thing there are many reasons to believe firms will continue to invest and increase productivity one they're sitting on mounds of cash as a result of stimulus programs and cheap credit earnings growth has soared and labor is no longer such a cheap substitute for capital expenditure and firms have to catch up after weak investment in other words because labor is getting more expensive people are now companies are now purposefully plowing more money into new machinery and innovation to reduce input costs because labor's more expensive so in a weird way as labor gets more expensive the labor that we do hire becomes more productive because now it works with newly created or installed machinery because they that's the only way those jobs could be created in the first place by being more efficient uh and and i've previously talked about how this pandemic has been sort of this in my opinion cleanse for for corporations uh where corporations were able to lay off tens of thousands of people and then just hire back the people that they probably found were the most productive now that's harsh to the people who are not laid off or sorry who are not hired back but uh i'm talking in the mindset of an investor here not to offend so the shift from working uh at home during the pandemic may have also yielded efficiency gains uh 65 of uh respondents felt remote working has been good for productivity jury is still out on this though higher productivity growth though also means that the economy can maintain stable prices even in the face of higher wages this is this was money right here uh like when you now look at this and you you again you look at your inputs for inflation oh car prices went up airline prices went up wages are going up yeah but wait a minute airline car prices are temporary wedding dresses are temporary price increases sure the prices might stay at elevated levels for a while but if people are getting paid more and they're being more productive we could actually grow and inflict down inflation fascinating insights kathy fascinating insights financial times thank you so much for watching this video make sure to get your life insurance in as little as 5 minutes
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