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에버그란데 위기가 시장에 미치는 파급은 과장됐다고 주장. 주가·암호화폐 바닥 신호(인플렉션)를 근거로 딥 매수 입장을 밝힘. 블랙록·피델리티 중국 부동산 노출 우려는 특정 펀드 기준 오독이라 반박. 미국채 10년물 금리는 약 1.5%대에서 안정. 단, 인플렉션이 하락 재전환할 수 있다고 단서를 달음.
다듬은 글
ow bad ever grants crisis will be we'll talk about reactions in the market and in cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency is actually going to help us a lot here the reason i say this is first i ran through a thought experiment earlier in the course member live stream we talked about what could the potential worst case scenario be in the evergrand crisis and so in this video what i'm going to do is i'm going to go through my envisioning of w for the evergreen crisis then i'm going to talk about some inflection poin actually think in terms of how bad the ever grant crisis will be now i could be wrong this is of course just my opinion but let's get right into it okay folks so the first thing that we did in the thought experiment is we came to the conclusion that in an evergrand style collapse the very first thing that's likely to happen is that bond prices for evergrants company would collapse and evergrants stock price would collapse we'll take a look at those in just a moment and we'll look for inflection points then we would expect real estate prices in china to collapse and we would expect to see an inflection point to the upside or downside depending on how bad things actually end up getting then we would expect to see bond yields go up not just in china because remember when people sell bonds their price goes down more sellers drive prices down which pushes yields up we'd expect to see see yields go up and i specifically want to track the u.s market because there are a lot of individuals in china who invest in u.s dollar denominated debt and so a sell-off in bonds will lead to rates going up where yields going up in the united states as well that has the effect essentially of increasing mortgage interest rates in the united states and we know that real estate is linked to mortgage interest rates to the point where if interest rates fall one percent or sorry go up one percent home prices could fall about 10 percent you've got about that one to 10 connection there and this could really affect u.s real estate prices and when real estate prices in the united states start coming down we often see stock prices also start coming down and lately we've seen stocks the company like zillow open door and redfin start coming down which some are speculating is almost the stock market potentially trying to predict a fall in real estate prices but is that related to the ever grant crisis well let's take all of this apart because we've heard a lot of things about the ever evergreen crisis the best thing to do is just get right into it and follow the updates so first we know that evergrand likely missed a 45.2 million dollar interest payment just an interest payment can you imagine that having a 45 million dollar payments like a 45 million dollar mortgage to make and you missed the freaking payment your credit score probably going down but don't worry evergrant's credit score is already junk this by the way comes after the fact that evergrand missed a payment actually missed two payments last monday missed a payment last thursday or likely missed a payment last thursday just like this one evergrand last thursday said they sent the payment but we never got evidence that it was actually sent and we never got evidence that the money was actually received so that's why we say it was likely missed but what's interesting is how certain things are reacting in the market so remember how i said the first thing we would expect to see is a movement in the stock price well take a look at this when we hop on over to the stock price right here we go to a year to date decline of about 79 percent and while there are fluctuations on the minute minute hour to hour take a look at how evergrand stock has actually essentially bottomed out around september 21st which is where we had a little bit more of peak fear in fact let's go ahead and zoom into that a little bit let's go into the one month here and even though we have fluctuations on the up and the downside and we want to be careful for a potential double dip usually the big first inflection point is one we really want to pay attention to it's kind of like in the covid recession our markets sort of hit bottom on march 23rd and again on april 3rd but the april 3rd bottom was a little more shallow than the march 23rd bottom in 2022 and then we took off from there and so this is something in my opinion i'm going to be paying attention to the fact that we just got an inflection point in 3333.hk that's the stock ticker symbol the easiest way to do is just type into google 3333.hk or if you type it into the url bar type the word google first because otherwise it tries to take you to some weird website we could also do this with 6666 this is a china's china evergreens ev group let's take a look at this one so take a look at this one this is the group here and if we go to year to date to start with we're down about 41 but take a look at that similar inflection point where from the bottom here we've actually seen about a 23 percent rise i suppose it's also worth looking at that here let's go from the bottom we've seen about a 28 rise so we've started to actually see an inflection point in the price of the stock that's despite the fact that again today we missed another debt payment or in china's case that'd be yesterday then let's do this the next thing i talked about was crypto we'll take a look at coin market cap and i really like using crypto as a catalyst tool for understanding what's going on with uh with with china because china while it's always made headlines for crackdowns china has some of and has historically had some of the top 10 volumes for crypto some citizens have in the past moved closer to power plants to profit from cheap electricity so they can mine electricity you've got a lot of hodlers in china china is one of the top 10 hodler countries in fact i think it's almost top five and even though you've got a lot of this drama going on with again china banning crypto transactions or financial institutions from working with crypto you've got a lot of crypto investors and hodlers in china and so when we see sell-offs in crypto pricing sometimes in my opinion that could be a sign of stress related to china such as the evergreen crisis that's why i said that crypto could fall under the evergreen crisis and that's why i've been saying that for over a week and a half now to two weeks as we've been covering the evergreen crisis we're also seeing some money flow into decentralized exchanges which makes a lot of sense that we would get away from centralized finance to sort of still be able to invest in cryptocurrencies in china but what's more important is the signal right now of cryptocurrencies for this ever grant crisis so what we're going to do here is we're going to go to the trading view history here and we're going to look at the day chart and uh take a look at the day chart here for bitcoin the evergrand crisis really came to light closer to the the third and fourth week of september where we are now and we really had a pain day for crypto here on the 20th where we really sold down and we had another pain day on the 24th and again here in the last couple days or about three to four days ago we also had pain days these were these were larger sell-off days it's easier to look at this on the one hour candlestick so let's go ahead and do that we're going to jump on over to the one hour candlestick and you can see here this is a september 7th sell-off we had a lot of crypto liquidations over here and we started getting the evergrand fear and this is over here what i really call the ever grand contagion for cryptocurrencies and i believe that crypto is sort of a barometer for the madness that's going on in china although i don't want to say that it's the only barometer or that evergrand is somehow so powerful that it can solely controls the pricing of crypto that's not what i'm saying but i do believe that crypto sells down on bad news especially regarding the potential of tether holding uh evergrand uh bonds which we've heard that tether say they don't uh so anyway so we've seen with fear in the markets crypto sell down and that similar fear that we get anytime there's sort of fear uncertainty and doubt or any kind of new negative publication about evergreen is something that we do see so on the 24th we saw sell downs here and we've seen sell downs here on monday and tuesday as well in crypto today was when we had that bond payment that was missed again or likely missed and again we saw some of the lows bitcoin around 41 200 but we're starting to see this inflection point up again at the same point as we're starting to see this inflection point up in the stock now no guarantees that this little inflection point here is anything special it's just worth noting that we're starting to see crypto move up at the same time as we're seeing the inflection points in three three three three and six six six six again the stock is down five point one percent today so some fluctuations here are expected but again up twenty eight percent from the dip here right uh and up twenty 23 on the ev dip now for evergrand but let's do another thing because i mentioned after the stock and crypto after that we would talk about real estate in china a little harder to measure real estate prices in china so we're going to skip that one and instead trend let's take a look at the 10-year treasury the 10-year treasury we want to get yields so 10-year treasury yield not the actual bond pricing let's go over here to the yield so take a look at today which was supposed to be a nervous day with that missed payment we actually had treasuries trade flat so even though we had this fear see right around here when crypto declined and right around the time we started seeing some of those so those low super low stock prices at evergreen we started seeing treasury yields in the united states skyrocket but they've stopped they've stopped skyrocketing in fact while we hit a high intraday of about 1.56 right now we sit around 1.51 remember that has implications for the u.s real estate and mortgage market now what about the fact that we are seeing some funds circulate about the potential for blackrock having of 20 or plus percent or or you have a potentially 20 stake exposed to evergrand and that really this contagion is just beginning well this is where we actually have to do a little bit of investigative work and dismantle a little bit of fun that's going around because what we're seeing so far just sort of a signpost checkpoint so far it looks like we're starting to see some positive inflection points that the market's going to have enough cash repo markets have plenty of money banks have plenty of liquidity banks are stress tested hard enough and it looks like so far we are inflecting but markets are still going to trade on fear now i've broken down how we're starting to see some inflection points and who knows could be the classic dead cat bounce right where we get an inflection point and really the real peak fear is ahead of us but folks whatever i've been saying even this weekend i made a video and you can go check this yourself fact check me please i made a video that got 229 000 views it's called the ever grant crisis stocks and crypto sell off that video at about 12 minutes into the video i say i do not see this being a systemic risk i think this is going to create a dip and that is a dip that we're going to want to buy and i've been putting my money where my mouth is i've been buying that dip but wait a minute why is there fud going around suggesting that maybe blackrock has one-fifth of its assets exposed to chinese real estate in fact somebody sent me this and i was really sussed out by this i thought there's no way was my immediate reaction and i found this particular article that they referenced here it is it literally says the blackrock fund has a fifth of its assets exposed to china's real estate sector and nearly a third of its portfolio holds high yield debt also known as junk bonds oh my gosh that sounds really bad like if blackrock one of the largest investment advisors in the world has a fifth of its assets exposed to chinese real estate well that must be really really bad because that could spell big trouble in the united states right too bad it's wrong it's blatant misinformation because the person who or at least the people who are circulating this have misread unfortunately the article that they are reading and so let's break down how there's misinformation circulating about black rocks holdings uh in evergrand and blackrock's holdings that are exposed to chinese real estate so let's go into that detail it's worth knowing this kind of detail because fud spreads so much faster than fact and it takes me so much longer to dismantle the madness and insanity that sometimes circulates like wildfire but that's why you subscribe to this channel so the screenshot and misinformation actually comes from this article in this particular website here it's financial review afr.com blackrock fidelity funds suffer exodus on evergrand fears and what this article refers to where it says that blackrock the black literally says the blackrock fund uh there it is the blackrock fund has one-fifth of its assets exposed to chinese real estate oh my gosh but it's the biggest investment advisor in in the united states it's got 9.5 trillion dollars under assets that's so big and fidelity is the other big one which they also talk the fidelity fund oh my gosh includes uh some of its largest holdings in china's real estate companies oh my gosh fidelity's got 4.2 trillion under management these are huge funds and if they're exposed to chinese real estate then then america's institutions and their investments are going to plummet everything's going to crash that's kind of when when you misread articles like the walk away impression and i think that's why those videos get shared but it's wrong because this article doesn't talk about blackrock in total it doesn't talk about fidelity in total it talks about these specific funds like the fidelity china high-yield fund or in the case of blackrock it talks specifically about the blackrock gold global funds china bond uh fund so in other words this article saying that a fifth of black rock assets are exposed to china's real estate sector is not blackrock in total it's just this fund this particular fund has uh 9.2 billion dollars under management that's all that's a good amount it's 9.2 billion dollars but it's a far cry from 9.5 trillion dollars that blackrock has under management which if i multiply this by 100 to get a percentage we are talking about 0.09 of blackrock's assets under management are in this chinese fund that block rock has this chinese high-yield fund and of that 25 is exposed to china's real estate like is a drop in the bucket and if you zoom out even more and you're like okay well how much does blackrock have invested into evergren like one percent of their assets it's a drop in the bucket the same thing is true of fidelity fidelity has 4.2 trillion dollars in assets under management but uh in their fund uh hold on 4.2 trillion there we go in their fund they only have 2.4 billion which means 0.057 of fidelity's money is actually in the fund in this junk bond fund that this article is talking about so somebody basically took an article about a fraction of one percent of blackrock and fidelity's holdings and turned it into a misinformation video to spread fear uncertainty and doubt in the united states about the united states market and it was really a misunderstanding of the article itself just to show you an example here's one of the marketing brochures on this high yield fund and uh it's got a 1.2 management fee you can see here the fund size 2.4 billion dollars you've got here it's fidelity funds china's high yield fund yay and if you scroll over here you can actually see what the top 10 holdings are and that yeah look it's a china fund it makes sense it's got 61 exposed to china i'm surprised it's not all like it's not 100 china and you might ask well why do people invest in this kind of stuff it's because the yield is 6.9 so people are like yay i get a lot of dividends but i'm investing in garbage in fact you can like the disclosure literally tells you you're investing in garbage look credit rating exposure triple a bonds nah we don't want any of those how about double a bonds nah how about a bonds okay two percent how about bbb bonds triple b rated bonds sure two percent how about bb bonds yeah now we're in junk bonds sure 34 exposure to those b bonds yeah we'll take 37 of those too you're literally investing in junk bonds like just for giggles here's what junk bond means anything under triple b rated is considered junk so if it's less than a capital b b b or a capital b a a then it's junk and what you'll notice here is if you go to the pamphlet bbb or baa 2 everything below that is junk and that's where most of the money is invested is in junk that's the risk you take when you invest in junk this is not somehow suggesting that bankrupt is about or a blackrock is about to go bankrupt that's a total misunderstanding and a misread of a silly article that really nobody should be talking about so anyway you have to be careful with some of the fud that spreads but my bottom line stays consistent i believe the evergrant crisis overall is overblown in terms of its global contagion implications uh and and this is really just based on me looking for inflection points i'm not trying to trust jerome powell or christine lagod over at the ecb but i will say these inflection points could could shift they could shift back to the downside in the meantime i'm going to keep doing research i'll keep sharing and breaking apart fud if i see it i'll also correct misinformation if i see it and in the meantime i hope you buy the dip on on things that are not ever grand uh although hey maybe uh maybe it's uh by the dip opportunity if you had like an insanely high risk tolerance just for giggles also know that you could look up what blackrock is exposed to you can look up their 13f filing and you could literally see about but i think we want to say about 3.7 trillion dollars of their investment assets are over here in stocks and you can google this stuff so just google uh 13f blackrock filing if you want to go through here and see how much apple or microsoft or amazon or tesla or whatever they own you could do that all righ liked i goodbye you
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