저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 의회에서 9월 말 정부 셧다운과 부채한도 상향을 둘러싼 교착이 벌어지고 있다. 상원 민주당은 임시예산안(stop gap)과 부채한도 상향을 동시에 추진하지만 공화당이 반대하고 있다. 바이든 대통령 일정 취소 등 혼란이 이어졌다. 옐런 재무장관은 10월 18일 전후 디폴트 위험과 경기 충격을 경고했다. 영상은 9/30 셧다운 여부와 상원 표결을 핵심 관전 포인트로 제시한다. 주식·자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here y'all just cannot make this stuff up okay today was a crazy enough day in the stock market but guess where it was a crazier day in congress it was literally a nuts okay there's so much at play here and you're gonna want to listen to this one from chuck schumer oh my gosh honey we started on a cinema and mansion and what we can expect in terms of the debt ceiling the budget a government shutdown stimulus and much more let's buckle up and get yourself a ack kevin.com live and go to medkevin.com public to get up to 70 dollars totally for free when you sign up for public the stock trading app go to medkevin.com public they don't buy or sell your information and they don't us into it so wow crazy day chuck schumer said this morning that he would ask the senate for consent to hold a vote to increase the debt limit he was trying to get unanimous consent what do you think happened it didn't happen okay now schumer's rationale was simple okay on monday republicans said no we are not going to extend the budget through the end of the year and at the same time raise the debt ceiling through the end of 2022 we're just not going to do that so schumer's like fine you don't like the bundle how about unanimous consent for the debt ceiling oh no you don't like that either so guess what he's doing now how about we get a bill that just extends the government's budget so we don't have to shut down in two days because the government's budget expires on september 30th and i'm filming this right here on september 28th on the evening of the 28th and i'm still drinking coffee because clearly i need more now nobody's actually expecting that schumer's really going to just get the budget deficit bill extended but it's possible because democrats are coming around suggesting that look what's at the very least get the budget extended via a stop gap bill through the end of the year and let's just drop all other requirements about the bipartisan infrastructure package about the uh you know the debt ceiling let's just focus on funding the government so we don't shut down the government on friday now this creates a really interesting dynamic because democrats are gonna say okay okay okay we know you don't like the debt limit but you do want to prevent the government from shutting down republicans so let's agree on that the problem is republicans know how this game is going to play out if republicans say yes let's go ahead and fund the government through sep through december then democrats can just raise the debt ceiling and do scot-free over the next three weeks get a reconciliation plan done before october 18th which we'll talk about in a moment and boom democrats get everything that they want republicans are therefore unlikely to help democrats actually get the government funded through december so this creates this really crazy negotiation that we've got where the government even though we're supposed to have a vote tomorrow and this is going to be tense okay we're going to see which way republicans are going to go are they going to you know give it to the democrats and they're going to say all right let's just fund the government through december then you guys do you regarding the debt ceiling and the infrastructure packages that's fine or are they going to say no no sign our bipartisan infrastructure package and then maybe we'll consider extending the government's budget they might do that because remember nancy pelosi said she was going to sign and and have a vote on of course she doesn't sign it she calls for a vote on uh calls for a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package the 1 trillion package on monday she never did that instead she said oh we'll we'll start debating this week and we'll vote on it on thursday okay so this is where you see the democratic mo is right now democrats are saying okay let's try to get the government funded through december on wednesday then on thursday let's try to pass the bipartisan infrastructure package then let's raise the debt ceiling and deal with our 3.5 trillion infrastructure package and this all needs to get done before october 18th because janet yellen tells us that x date that is the date that we are officially defaulting on things like social security the child tax credit payments defaulting on uh social security i already mentioned social security payment but our bond payments that's the day that's literally the day we run out of money now remember what the debt ceiling does very very important raising the debt ceiling make sure we can continue paying the obligations that we've already agreed to pay for this whole debt ceiling debate by the way never used to be a big issue until it became politicized we had much more of uh when republicans are in power democrats say no when democrats are in power republicans say no things have gotten a whole lot more polarized over the last 20 years and so hence the debt ceiling is now a big negotiation that we have all the time janet yellen says if we don't end up raising the debt ceiling we could literally go into economic calamity those were her words that we could have a self-made recession a manufactured crisis a self-inflicted crisis for her words crazy uh obviously we expect somehow the debt ceiling in the government will will get extended and funded we'll see how it all plays out but remember folks we still have the issues at hand right now we have until the end of the day thursday to get the government funded and the ideas at play now are hey maybe maybe just maybe we can get kirsten cinema the democrat in the senate who's vastly opposed to ho however vote that they need they need her vote to get it done and joe manchin who's vastly opposed to the three and a half trillion dollar package as well wants it to be closer to one and a half to two trillion dollars they want to get these two people on board super desperately so that way democrats can literally try to get everything done at the same time best case scenario for democrats is government gets funded debt ceiling gets raised and they get their three and a half trillion dollar deal but literally at every step of the process democrats are getting roadblocked it got so bad not gonna believe this okay got so bad that joe manchin and kirsten cinema visited biden at the white house today the conversation apparently went so freaking poorly that joe biden literally canceled all of his plans the next day joe biden was expected to fly to chicago to promote covet vaccines and instead political reported that kirsten cinema is quote not there and reluctant to engage in any kind of negotiations until the bipartisan infrastructure bill passes the house but remember nancy pelosi is not passing the bipartisan infrastructure package until the government gets funded everything is literally worst case scenario right now for democrats democrats are screwed on because progressives say they will not vote until the three and a half trillion dollar package is done but they can't negotiate the three and a half trillion dollar package until kirsten cinema is on board because she's a key vote and so is joe manchin until the 1 trillion packages so it's literally this it's literally a cluster disaster of this leading joe biden to cancel his travel to try to negotiate this all together then you have people like ro khanna a representative railing on kirsten cinema for for basically being this hold up or this this roadblock basically schumer then reportedly had lunch with a group of senate democrats to try to ease their concerns over the government shutting down this friday because nobody who's running for a competitive election coming up here in 2022 wants to have on their reputation that they participated in a government shutdown nobody wants or that they were potentially to blame for a government shutdown nobody wants that so schumer walked his members through the process how they want to get things done again they want to get the 1 trillion infrastructure package passed they want to get the budget extended they want to get the debt ceiling and they want to get the three and a half trillion dollar package they want to get all these solutions how they're going to get everything when everyone's fighting against them tooth and nail right now i have absolutely no idea now i'll speculate on my thoughts here in just a moment but let's just say things are getting pretty intense especially since you've got bernie sanders now encouraging people to sandbag nancy pelosi's vote on thursday until the full three and a half trillion dollar bill is ready like i'm running out of arms here to point fingers because let me just bottom line it for you right here budget uh the government getting funded probably a good chance that we'll get the government funded through december i think the government's gonna get funded i think that'll be okay hopefully we avoid a government shutdown we'll know tomorrow though i'm like 55 45 because i'm hopeful that our government gets funded but i'm also hedging my bets here okay i'm not that hopeful uh it wouldn't surprise me for republicans to say no because it benefits them because it throws the democrats into a a swirl basically of oh crap now we have a government shutdown pressuring us while we're trying to negotiate a hat republicans want to do is get the democrats to burn their one-time use reconciliation option that would mean they extend the budget and a debt ceiling maybe but they don't get that three and a half trillion dollar package done at all that burns and we never end up getting social infrastructure which means none of that paid leave the paid child care or the recurring child care tax credits uh the 300 for a children under six the 250 per month for children under 18 within income thresholds of course which janet yellen made clear today she wants that to be permanent she wants to be permanently included as something just society does to because she believes that most people who are receiving this money are using it to pay for food and clothing and she says that that individuals who are receiving this money are reporting that they're no longer food insecure that many of them are no longer food insecure like they had previously reported so this is a big deal to her now you've got other drama going on as well like for example today you had elizabeth warren calling jerome powell a dangerous person saying that republicans like jerome powell at the federal reserve are the kinds of people who sow the seeds or plant the seeds i should say supplant the seeds of financial crises like what we had in 2008 and therefore opposes the re-nomination of jerome powell to the federal reserve you had other people complimenting jerome powell but then you had republicans like tim scott say it's not fair for us to tax uh for all these new things in the three and a half trillion dollar plan when the last thing we need is more handouts and payments for people and he goes as far as saying the child tax credit isn't helping anyone you've got people complaining about rent relief because congress got emergency rent relief out but so far has not gotten help out to everybody who needs it and we've got the eviction crisis upon us with many states eviction protections expiring here also in two days the same day the government shuts down well the next day is when the government shut down but when our budget expires then you've even got tim scott going as far as saying these programs are inflationary and how are we going to pay for them to which of course janet yellen replies and says well we're going to pay for it by taxing people more to which tim scott says well if you tax people more than you're going to hurt the economy why would people invest if capital gains are now instead of 23 43 or corporations are going to have to pass on higher fees to their customers or consumers janet yellen replies to this and says hey look you all lowered taxes in 2017 with the trump tax cuts we didn't see a whole lot of extra investment so maybe the opposite is also true if we raise taxes investments won't actually go down it's kind of their argument so folks let me just put it this way all this stuff is freaking exhausting but this is all of the drama of congress and you clicked on the video to get a summary but i want to clean all of this up right now let me clean this up step number one tomorrow we're going to focus on is the government going to shut down or not that's number one if it doesn't shut down that's good that means we passed the stop gap resolution it means republicans are on board the government doesn't shut down cool we could take a deep breath the government's going to keep getting funded then we got to talk about the debt ceiling which means democrats got to get a done or something smaller within three weeks they got to get it done by uh essentially october 18th the x date so that way they could raise the debt ceiling and pass the infrastructure package which may end up being a compromise package somewhere around 2.9 trillion dollars who knows joe biden says no but then again he also cancels he canceled this trip tomorrow because he realized he's getting pancaked okay so we're going to take this one step at a time is the government going to shut down yay or nay we should know a lot more on that tomorrow now the house might pass something right away but what's more important is the senate and that's where we're actually going to be first tomorrow is the senate is going to take up a vote tomorrow the house already by the way passed a budget and debt ceiling bill but that already got rejected by the senate so don't get confused by that one chuck schumer pay attention to the senate tomorrow is the senate are republicans going to support funding the government yay or nay if they do great takes a lot of pressure off all of the drama if they don't things are about to get real heated over the next couple weeks it's gonna be intense so buckle up subscribe if you want more updates on this i know this was a lot to take in and it was a lot to spit out in a one take with no editing and that's why you gotta nd make sure to get your free up to seventy dollars with public by going to medken.com public thanks so much for watching and until the next one you
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