저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장이 위험선호(risk-on) 투기 랠리에서 이동 중이며, 2021년 초 SPAC·고위험주 랠리는 2월 이후 꺾였다. 비트코인은 위험선호와 디커플링되는 흐름을 보였다. 증권사 마진부채가 8월 기준 약 9,110억 달러로 사상 최대라 레버리지 과열 우려가 있다. 고위험·고밸류 종목보다 퀄리티 대형주 하락과 필수소비재 상승 가능성을 언급했다. 투기주 랠리는 모멘텀에 의존하며 짧게 끝나므로 단기 매매는 일찍 익절하고 펀더멘털 투자는 과열 구간을 피하라고 조언했다. 도큐사인·크라우드스트라이크 등 하락 종목을 장기 매수 후보로 거론했다.
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if the market is stressing you out make sure to save money on insurance by going to metcalfer.com a lemonade you can get homeowners insurance renters insurance pet insurance and life insurance and soon car insurance by going to medcavin.com lemonade check out met kevin.com lemonade in the link down below hey everyone we kevin here the market is shifting and it's taking an unusual path usually what we see is a transition between a flight to safety and risk on trading we usually see that it's kind of like one or the other and oftentimes we think of it as sort of this like barbell it's like one or it's the other kind of like at the beginning of the pandemic we had oh it's this it's the tech stocks it's the zoom it's to stay at home they're all doing really well and then on the other side you have the recovery stocks right the delta airlines the spirit the carnival and when these were up these were down right that barbell has sort of evaporated now we see some tech up some recovery up some recovery down some uh some some tech whatever right we see that pretty consistently but something else that we saw the beginning of 2021 was this really really big sort of risk on movement and it had a lot to do with spac ipos or regular ipos dpos and ultimately crypto and pretty much anything that seemed relatively innovative exploded with a huge risk on trend at the end or sort of we could even say beginning of december through about march and in some cases through april i'm going to show you some examples and then talk about what's happening differently now so let's take a look here palette here direct listing uh the direct listing took place in september the thing direct listed for like 10 bucks this thing runs in december runs into february up to 45 at the end of january continued renewal run here into feb and once we started getting that sort of market pull back around feb 19 we started going risk off pounds here really started falling until just recently when we started getting a little bit more of a risk on movement and that recent risk on movement is something that i really want to talk about but what for right now we really want to pay attention to is look at december to about march okay let's look at another one let's do another let's do a spec here let's do matterport look specifically here at the run we get a spec on february 1st i mean this is like the perfect time to have a spec because you get that beautiful run up until february 22nd this was really the end of the risk on era because interest rates started skyrocketing we saw a lot of these bleed out let's uh let's think of another spec here and we can specifically go through some of the specs by looking at some things that are doing a really particularly well today let's look at electromechanical for example uh electromechanica uh which uh not necessarily a spec but also took a part of this of this crazy sort of risk on rally faraday futures here look at that risk on rally from november through uh about february middle of february there big big old explosion here in pricing workhorse go back to workhorse when do you see it you see the big run from november through february you see it over and over and over again it really doesn't matter what you look at if it's a spack or it's a higher risk play like gevo or whatever here you go december through february this was our at-risk moment of time which what else is interesting what else did really well during that time sorry those lines look crazy let me go over to trading view really quick because those lines are nuts that i have on weeble sorry i usually have weibo much more zoomed in so the lines aren't that apparent but anyway on the day chart look at the run in bitcoin look at this november mold mostly starting in december boom explosion now this lasted a little longer went on through about april and may really peaking about april 12th cpi data release time boom an explosion a risk on explosion and risk on explosions they come in waves and they go on waves but something that i think is really interesting is that crypto seems to have decoupled itself from when risk on trades are done see crypto started a hit sort of a low in the summer around july and we had a little bit of a recovery here in august and now we're seeing a little bit of the uh the the sort of spac place start coming back fractionally right we're finally starting to see a little bit of a recovery here when crypto was really starting to recover here in august we're starting to see a bit of that recovery now in some of the more risk-on place things that have just literally bled out spacks that have bled out i mean here's excel fleet this was a stock that at 20 i said sell it's way overvalued it's not worth it it's at six dollars and 84 cents right now quantum scape another particular stock massively down but recently seeing a little bit of risk on movement again and people generally see some of these particular companies as more risky than cryptocurrencies and this is an interesting deviation that we're seeing right now because look at this even plug power is slowly trying to start trending back even though it went from 75 to like 25 or even lower at one point another one i made a video about in january saying this is mega overvalued probably going to have a quantum escape style collapse which it did it's interesting to note that we're starting to see some of these stocks on the day have very interesting runs again like very nice runs look at look at some of these runs here camber energy naked brand meta material electro mechanica gevo excel fleet workhorse big digital assets highly on proterra and then some cannabis plays in here fisker plug power smile direct what do all of these have in common that are between 4 and 33 up today well all of them have something in common they're all much higher risk plays i mean even in the after hours you still got camber and naked running camber 4 naked 8 why is risk running right now and more interestingly why is crypto not continuing to run with a movement to risk on place what if crypto was the signal that hey it's time to go risk on it's time to go risk on now people are like okay hear you loud and clear let's go risk on and people are taking their money from potentially the safety place the google the alphabets potentially even the safety plays of of uh well this is a big stretch to say that bitcoin is a safety play like apple and google okay i'm not trying to say that i'm just saying that what if the market is evaluating bitcoin as safer and potentially lower gain than some of the alternative assets like spax or even potentially altcoins right i mean look at this for the last few days here and this is really a recent phenomenon you've been seeing apple trend down this is just recently here apple trending down crypto trending down that's interesting it's almost kind of like the safer place you're trading down whereas the spax and the crazy ones the ones with higher valuations don't get me wrong i'm not trying to diss them i love me matterport okay but look at this insane run that matterport has had over here in the last month it's been absolutely crazy and you're seeing this over and over again at some of these higher risk higher valuation plays palantir i mean heck even tesla has had much more of a substantial run we just broke out above this trend line here which is in my opinion substantially bullish for tesla we're getting way lower lows i'm sorry we're getting way higher lows and we're getting higher highs this is a very very good trajectory for tesla i love it even lucid look at lucid the explosion of risk is back but again the type of risk on we're going to is not like oh i'm going to put money in the stock market i'm going to risk my money investing into apple or google because even google look at google a little drop here at the end you're slowing despite this insanely beautiful run slowing to dropping look at nvidia you've got a slowing here in the growth at the same time you're also going to recovery risk look at dave and busters recent runs here look at carnival cruise lines riskier plays especially going into the potential coveted winter folks we are seeing a massive massive rotation to risk what can we do to potentially evidence this well look at this folks typing into google finra margin statistics they just came out uh and here you go folks look at this finra margin statistics so how much debt we took out in august 911 billion dollars of total debt outstanding in august i'll make that clear not taken out in august but outstanding in august uh this is huge this is the biggest number we have ever seen in finra margin debt i was really excited when we saw this slow down here in july where we actually had in 2021 the first inflection point to the downside in margin debt and then all of a sudden it ticks back up this is crazy this is a big big big bump we are now back onto that trajectory of potentially getting up to a a level where we will be at over a trillion dollars of margin debt uh that's insane uh let's see here okay now how do we tie this together like what what what do we conclude from this and how do we invest all right so i'm going to answer that first of all i think when we go to a risk-on style of investing we set up the market on shakier foundations it means that high quality companies really really really good quality assets potentially start rotating down like those mega caps the apples the google the amazon the facebook the netflix although i personally don't love facebook but i'm gonna lump them in there anyway okay we potentially see a drawdown in those tech names at the same time maybe we see consumer staples move up as inflation concerns continue to press and financials consumer staples could be things like general mills it could even be things like caterpillar right uh an industrial it could be things like that's not a consumer staple obviously that's an industrial it could be things like target back to consumer staples walmart right those could do decent uh in-person spending uh and and maybe companies capable of raising prices staples you tend to have more of an opportunity to raise prices discretionaries you tend to have a lower opportunity to race prices those would be things like restoration hardware uh or even etsy.com which i love let's see okay that's a big hole in your mind all right so shoot myself in the foot but i'm always gonna be honest like it is what it is and so if we're seeing this rotation away from potentially i'm going to say it the safer cryptos i'm saying that because i i don't want to compare cryptos to apple and google in terms of safety okay some people might i'm not going to make that comparison i'm just saying if we potentially see there's a drawdown in safer kryptos ada ethereum btc at the same time as maybe seeing altcoins nfts go speculative to the moon at the same time as we see some of the higher quality tech companies fall down in favor of potentially some more speculative you know stocks or whatever there are two things that could happen one we could actually end up seeing a glorious rally in some of these speculative stocks i mean like insane rally in some of these specular stocks i mean look let me ask you okay what what fundamentally underpinned plug powers rally and look how long it lasted okay january to about february 12th so about six weeks what underpinned a six-week rally of plug power to uh you know basically two and a half x in value what underpin that nothing but momentum hype and potentially debt right what underpinned quantum scape going from uh what was it over here 26 dollars to 5xing to 132 in a matter of a month uh maybe a little bit more than what yeah about a month what underpin that four week rally right now that's something else to keep in mind is the market we're in right now is one such where we're not even seeing four to six six week rallies anymore we see these shorter term rallies like robin hood had this maybe week and a half rally and then started fizzling again coming back a little bit but you see these shorter term rallies so is it possible that we're going to go into this market where all of a sudden this i really think it's a good analogy even though it sounds a little derogatory um imagine the sort of group of of sheep and then you have like 10 different farms and those farms each represent different stocks and then all of a sudden it's all right all right everybody today we're going to canoe and the stock goes up right and then all right everybody today we're going to plug power stock goes up and some sheep end up staying at each of these farms so you end up getting a slightly higher price but the more and more the crowd kind of runs around to all the different farms the more and more we're actually pumping up uh these stocks as people take on more debt and start looking for riskier and riskier assets now in my opinion trading wise and this is where the strategy comes in my trading wise i want to know that okay because as a trader i want to be able to play with the sheep but get out early that's the thing is i am willing to take my attendees early take your profits early and move on to the next one begin and then just sort of wait until they finally come to you and then move on early again right that's just my kind of conservative nature but again my trading portfolio is a fraction of my fundamental portfolio generally probably trading is going to be under certainly under 20 percent uh and 80 is gonna be long it's money i kind of lock away and i park and i don't want to pay taxes on that money everybody should have their own ratio i like the 80 20.
now at the same time with my long fundamental portfolio i want to be very careful that when i establish positions i don't do so on on hype periods of time so i have to be careful like i really want to have five hundred thousand dollars invested in matterport i sold my matterport early on the last big run i made a lot of money on it i'm up uh about what let's see double and a half so 150 percent uh in in just the summer that's just summer trading uh from from april to now not the money i made before or the money i expect to make but i'm not going to put a 500 000 into matterport especially because i expect this thing to go back down to 17 now today it's down 7 percent that's fine like is that 20 bucks please go back down more please get to 17 so i can invest in more now i will uh dca in so i might go 50 50 50 but i'm not going to go up to 500 until i get to my target numbers and then i'm going to go big because i want to make sure the sheep that are going to leave are going to leave get them out i would make the same argument if i wanted to establish a long position on something like dutch bros am i going to get in at peak euphoria at 62 of course not i expect it to be a trader meme it did so well for so long so many days in a row i'm not going to put money into it it's the same thing with toast until it gets to a reasonable number again or at least until i feel confident that the traders are gone look at dutch bros it's down 10.29 today look at toast it's had its first two to three days really in a row here i can't even get the uh symbol there we go t-o-s-t so if we go to the normal candlestick here you'll see uh well that looks a little harsh let's go to the hour here i mean it's true but yeah anyway you can see toast on its ipo date ran crazy crazy to 66 i made a video about toast and i said i think the valuation is way too high uh and it did it did very well at the open uh it still traded up and after hours the next day but it's been actually straight down since then so yeah the day chart is actually accurate and so that's that's where people kind of go in it's like oh it's going to be the next dutch bros right but remember short lived so whether you're trader or fundamental remember the movements are short lived it's even for example and this is one where i i should have recognized this okay i will always tell you my mistakes uh and my successes i want to give you a balance of both i invested in hippo right here it's about right here 490 480 right around here uh something some something around here it could have been on this side yeah it might have been on this side like that nine three date that's what it was nine three uh i thought this dip was perfect i liked it i thought we were at the beginning of a potential trend up here which we were but the problem is it was a sheep example i bought a i had a call option on it i got out early on my call option i made over six figures on that i did really well on that i probably closed my call option somewhere around 6 25 so not fully peaked but on in terms of my shares i held my shares as i promised i would and unfortunately as as the sort of sheep left that that motion left uh i'm i'm basically at kind of where i bought it maybe down about fifty to eighteen cents uh a share on that not a big deal but it's worth noting when you're a fundamentalist that doesn't mean you were wrong it just means the real fundamental rally has not actually happened yet very important to analyze these things so things that i think are potentially other opportunities for your lungs though are stay away from uh you know for for longs don't bag hold uh momentum stocks okay but look at something like docusign we know docusign is not a momentum stock it's selling off though probably as people are taking money from this and getting into those momentum stocks those movement stocks the ones that just rally like crazy and come back down that to me is an opportunity to build positions in things like docusign you want to build positions for fundamental purposes when people are not looking crowdstrike another one starting to trend down there's another one uh cloud flair cyber security forum just starting to trend down and this is what i like i like those long opportunities but i want to be very very careful that i'm not kidding myself and establishing longs in things that are either really frothy on valuations because they just came out of an ipo or their momentum stocks i time and time again hear people say things like hey kevin you know i bought something when it was really risk on uh like fastly for example people buy something when it was really really risk on and uh this was this we had some crazy crazy rallies there towards the end of 2020 there but fastly also participated in that sort of crazy january to february run right here uh and and just sort of bled out since then now if i'm holding on to something after massive momentum and it bleeds out and i gotta ask myself why did i buy it if i bought it because i thought it was going to the moon that's not a reason to be in a stock and it's time to get out now personally okay between you and i and i don't own any yet but i'm looking at fastly as hey can this be a turnaround fundamental story because nobody is freaking looking at it right now nobody gives a crap about fastly right now it's not sexy there's no momentum it is the dirt field that has been stomped on and everybody has left everybody cares about this crap because it's green but you got to be careful folks this this is where you can get hurt look at that another rally over here the sun power rally from january again to february 19 fish we get the signal prey on the bloomberg terminal what happens boom plummet uh and so now this is where it's time to do real fundamental analysis hey is it fundamentally worth around 23 bucks what about charge point with the lock up expiration coming tomorrow right but uh again i want to be very very very crystal clear here this is a very unique market because people are going risk on on risky assets and that makes sense when you go risk on you go risk on risk gaskets i love that for my fundamental portfolio because while everybody goes nuts over where all the sheep are today i am going to be hunting for barkins and that's what i'm hunting for and i highly recommend that honestly play both sides okay play both sides if you're going to play with with the the crowd do that but remember that is not your position to build fundamentals do not call your bags on momentum plays your fundamental investments do not kid yourself in fact the best thing for you to do and this is what i talk about stocks of psychology money the best thing for you to do is write down when you make a trade i am buying gevo because it's going to the moon okay all right then let's be clear don't bag hold it when it's down 30 over the next you know three weeks or whatever i am buying docusign because it's a fundamental play that has been discounted uh in fact the more it keeps falling the more i'm going to keep buying and i would even write this down i'd go if it drops to 190 i'm going all in right that way when it's 190 and you're like oh crap man i bought so much at 250 and then it actually did go to 190 you don't sit there like a paper and you're going i'm too nervous to buy it you wrote it down you knew what would happen it's kind of like with sofi you know so far i invested in at uh i sold puts because the iv was insanely high i sold puts when the stock was 17.50 but i wrote it down i put it not only my alerts but i also put it on my public.com profile i put in i believe there's a good chance this is going to go down to 1480.
it ended up going down briefly for like a day to 1380 bounced around 1480 a while it was a good support line nonetheless even though we briefed it below i bought shares saying literally on my public uh profile uh i got them right where i want them and the things back to 17 now that's what i expected and my sold puts printed attendees and i also bought shares towards that loan why because i wrote it down so so freaking important and so that's why this is a very important video on the market rotation and i hope that you found it helpful if you did make sure you subscribe to videos like this because if you don't subscribe i have no idea if you like them a lot because after i post videos i can go through them and i can go and see which videos people like and then i make more of those makes sense that's how media works people are always like how come they always make more trump videos or trump news articles than they make biden ones because whether you love trump or you hate them the trump ones are much more entertaining and they get more views uh okay folks thank you for watching this i hope you found it helpful goodbye
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