저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영화 The Big Short 속 CDS 투자자들이 2008년 금융위기 중 왜 계약을 보유하지 않고 은행에 매도했는지 설명한다. 은행들이 손실을 피하려 CDS 평가를 고의로 낮췄고, 상대방 부도위험과 유동성 악화로 매도가 합리적이었다고 주장한다. 마이클 버리는 약 1.9조(약 19억 달러) 규모 포지션을 14억 달러에 매도해 7억 달러 이익을 냈다고 언급한다. 과거 사건 설명 위주이며 현재 종목에 대한 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
in the movie The Big Short all three groups of guys bought credit default swaps from various Banks the swap contracts were specifically made against the housing market and once the housing market started to collapse instead of collecting the value of the swap contracts all three groups of guys sold their swaps to the banks why did the guys do that they could have held on to their positions and potentially received even more money if the financial crisis worsened however selling their swaps involved many factors beyond just maximizing immediate profits what happened was that be Stern's hedge funds in the subprime housing market failed in mid 2007 when those hedge funds failed all these Banks realized that the subprime housing market was going to crash and these Banks wanted to make money off the falling Market Michael bur and other guys have been buying credit default swaps from these Banks since 2005 and until 2007 these Banks never valued Michael bur's CDs positions at all when the housing market started to collapse Michael bur used to call these Banks to check how much the value of his CDs had increased the banks would either ignore his calls or those who picked up his calls would tell him that the contract CDs value was still the same where do you have our position Mark I think it's the same Mike Michael bur experienced this with various Banks when he used to call them for the valuation of his swap positions the banks would give him an excuse for Server failure or the important person would fall ill or some banks would tell him that they had a power outage in reality these Banks were making sure that their position was safe so they started to bet against the housing market these Banks were buying swaps against the housing market before the market crashed completely and they deliberately undervalued the swaps until they had accumulated enough profit till then these Banks tried their best not to Value these swaps correctly once these Banks had enough swaps they started to Value them correctly that's why you see Michael bur getting angry and calling the banks out on their action this situation was so messed up that these Banks sold mortgage-backed Securities to whoever was buying them and then these Banks would go to other Banks and buy the credit default swaps against the same mortgage back Securities that they sold expecting them to fail when Charlie and Jamie realized it they went to the media but but the media refused to publish this Bank scam at this point the situation was reversed on Wall Street the people who were sure that the housing market would never collapse realized that the housing market was falling so to profit from the falling Market everyone on Wall Street wanted to buy credit default swaps to bet against the housing market nobody's buying CD or mortgage bonds anymore and everybody wants swap swaps are now the most popular product on the street Michael bur's position was about 1.9 billion just before the housing crisis began people were offering him to buy his swaps for only 2% of the contract value which is around $38 million but when the housing market started to collapse people were ready to buy his positions for 75 to 80% of their contract value now all these guys sold their swaps because they wanted to profit from their Investments one more concern was liquidity as the crisis intensified the CDs Market became ill liquid and finding buyers outside of the banks became challenging selling swaps to Banks was the only practical way for them to cash out and take the profits the biggest concern these guys had was the counterparty risk during the 2008 crisis the whole financial system was on the brink of collapse the risk of the banks themselves defaulting on their obligations grew as the financial crisis worsened these Banks had bought lots of Home Loans from commercial Banks and all these Home Loans were were losing value as these loans were losing value these Banks faced major losses and were about to collapse that's why while buying credit default swaps from Goldman Michael burry says that he needs Assurance of payment in case Goldman faces any insolvency issues insolvency means the bank is collapsed and is at a point of no recovery I I want to be certain of payment in case of solvency issues with your bank selling their swaps minimized this risk and ensured that wouldn't lose their profits due to an insolvent counterparty it is true that if they just held on to their swaps longer as the crisis got worse they could have made more money but they realized that these Banks were going to go broke and if they went broke then these Banks would make excuses and would avoid paying these guys of course they could have sued the bank and gotten paid later but again that would have added a huge legal battle over the years so instead they sold the swap SWS for lower profits instead of letting the swaps contract reach their Peak value Michael brry sold his swaps for around 1.4 billion which gave him a profit of $700 million the Cornwall guys sold their $200 million worth of swaps for $80 million and Mark bomb sold his swaps for about $1 billion the banks could have just collapsed and they could have avoided paying these guys altogether but the banks at the time had no idea that the government would step in and and bail them out had these Banks had an idea that the government would step in and bail them out at the expense of the taxpayers these Banks would not have bought their swaps and would have freely collapsed without any worries this is the reason all the groups of guys in The Big Short sold their swaps to the banks at the end if you want to learn more about the big short in the 2008 financial crisis then subscribe to the channel and check out this playlist
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