저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표를 앞두고 인플레이션이 장기적으로 일시적(longer-term transitory)일 것이라 주장. 은행위기로 인한 기업 정리 사이클은 건강한 과정이며 연준은 금리를 높은 수준에서 오래 유지(higher for longer)할 가능성이 크다고 봄. 주식은 Nike Swoosh형 장기 우상향, 부동산은 3분기 전후 매수 기회 탐색을 제시. CPI 전월비 0.1%, 근원 0.3%로 예상(시장 컨센서스 0.2%/0.4%보다 낮음).
다듬은 글
tuned for my CPI prediction towards the end of the video and learn how to make more money as an entrepreneur or llc's insurances or otherwise make more money as an employee and learn how n the zero to millionaire real estate investing program link down below learn Property Management rental Renovations everything you need to know and check out stocks and psychology of money all linked down below which you can now use by now pay later for we'll see you soon I I think the the most important thing that we want to look at here is let's just talk about tomorrow so most important now obviously we've got green going into the market here on the eve of inflation we've got Bitcoin over 30 000.
in my opinion the absolute most important thing coming up is the inflation report tomorrow so let's just talk about my expectations around this inflation report specifically what I'm looking for and I'll put together all of all of sort of the research that we've been doing to to put my thinking hat on and make a prediction hear about inflation so I want to be very crystal clear here I think that inflation will end up proving to be longer term transitory there's one thing everybody learned around this cycle and it's patience everything took a lot longer than people thought the fed's hiking cycle came later than folks thought it took longer than folks thought things started breaking but quite frankly the banking crisis things started breaking really in my opinion aren't red flag that the FED has over tightened or has created a recessionary environment I think that the fringes suffer when there's a tightening cycle the companies that are zombie companies with poor risk management procedures the companies that have poor cash flow the companies with exposure to risky assets like uh Silicon Valley Bank startup sector uh Signature Bank the crypto sector and uh and and Credit Suisse has been plagued with scandals and poor auditing and risk management procedures for decades all of these companies collapsing really serves as no surprise and in my opinion not a sign of a greater financial crisis but rather of a normal weeding out cycle that you would get in a crisis uh that is normal companies that should not exist should die at some point and that is what Cycles do the bear markets take out the bad the junk and it's like a hurricane that comes through and weeds all the trees you know after a hurricane everything looks super clean around uh with the exception of all the debris on the floor but you look around it's like wow Everything feels like it's just got a big bath everything just got blown around I grew up in South Florida so it's relatable to me but anyway point being this this recessionary environment could very much be like an economic hurricane where just the week got cleared out and the excess labor got cleared out and they were encouraged to go be productive somewhere else and we could end up coming out of this recessionary style environment with a substantially larger or or more productive economy with higher GDP growth which lowers the burden of our national debt anyway and we could come out of this much more productive than when we went into this in other words all of this insane expansion of the money supply from the stimulus era could actually end up helping create this bubble environment where everybody got showered with money to go innovate and build and build and build then you run through and you basically destroy everything that couldn't figure out how to make it with unlimited amounts of money so try making it with restricted money and now hopefully going forward you have the most efficient businesses left over that got stimulated massively and are still getting stimulated whether it's chips artificial intelligence electric vehicles energy you name it so regarding CPI tomorrow and these by the way all my favorite pricing power stocks my favorite stocks you can see them my actively managed ETF the courses on building your wealth everything just go to meet kevin.com we've got a coupon code expiring tomorrow the price will be going up after April 12th so CPI per Bloomberg we know is expected to come in at 0.2 percent uh on the month over month level and the year over level uh year over year level is expected to come in at 5.1 percent which is fantastic uh these are these are big moves to the downside from six percent to 5.1 percent uh from the prior read year over year that's great we don't get as much of a movement in core or when we exclude food and energy so a lot of this being driven by a fall in food and energy prices but if we look at the non-core what we're really looking for is just starting signs of disinflation in Services that's exactly what Jerome pound told us to pay attention to he said listen Goods deflation is here that needs to hold so we need to keep seeing weakness in used autos new Autos durables any kind of goods outside of foods and energy let's continue to see weakening there then at some point we're going to get the rollover of housing data that is we will start getting weaker housing data for rents and that will help lower owners equivalent rents that's part two but part three that has doesn't have the forecast yet that isn't expected just yet to rule over like housing or Goods part three is that core Services disinflation your attorneys your financial advisors your haircut your medical supply uh or your medical services rather all of these sectors are where we're looking for weakness and drum pal expects to see the process of in his words disinflation to begin there soon my hope is we start seeing the beginning of disinflation there now I do do I think that inflation is going to just remarkably plummet and come in substantially low and it'll all be over tomorrow in other words all the inflation will be gone tomorrow and the FED can finally start cutting interest rates more much like the bond market anticipates no I do think much like we saw last year that the bond market is a little bit ambitious in their Fed rate cut cycle remember last year what happened we were expecting at the end of last year that the Federal Reserve was going to cut uh somewhere between a 1.5 to 2 percentage points by the end of 2023.
those expectations vanished very quickly the reason those expectations vanished work very quickly is because we had hot January numbers and all of a sudden we went from pricing and rate cuts to pricing in no rate cuts but what interestingly happened is the stock market actually rallied substantially in the first three months of the year so is it possible that that same thing could happen again my thesis is yes we could start seeing disinflation on the services side we're clearly on the path towards disinflation however we're not in as bad of a recessionary environment thanks to the banking crisis as people expect as a result what happens we have to start pricing in higher interest rates for longer but the last time we did that between December and about February stocks actually rallied now it's possible that they rallied because of tax loss harvesting and rebuying uh in January but take a look at this particular chart this shows us the current implied overnight rates of uh and rate cuts and what we're seeing is this plummeting in other words we'll get to a terminal of about 5.25 with about a 65 percent chance by June 14th and then we'll expect to see this plummeting in rates uh where we could potentially be cutting rates as much as 2.75 percent as soon as uh January 2024 and the December cycle in or December meeting in 2023.
that's entirely possible but I think personally it's unlikely we're going to see cuts that dramatic unless of course the economy is absolutely going into a recession based on the Atlanta GDP now forecast GDP today could still be around 2.1 percent and if that holds even above a half a percent through this summer this scary Q2 Q3 era that people are really worried about then it's entirely possible that we could see inflation continue to Trend down while stocks continue to Trend up and we probably stand higher for longer now that is what many people call a Goldilocks scenario and I think they use that because they're trying to say it's unrealistic it's not going to happen it's very unlikely but let's think about this graphically for a moment how this could look and it will also combine real estate so let's look at this graphically for a moment so what do we have we're over here in uh December of 2022 and we think that rates are going to be lower so we price in lower rates right what happens come about January and February well we start pricing at higher rates then we get the banking crisis and what do we get with the banking crisis over in March well we start pricing in lower rates for that December era of uh 2023 so let's go ahead and write December over here March the banking crisis happens so we get higher for longer up here this will be our rates for green here and now we're pricing in lower again right this is going to be what is being priced in rates or let's write in uh we'll say rates uh now for 4 11.
but let's do a rates likely trajectory and this is going to be sort of more of what I believe in terms of the trajectory so we'll go ahead and follow the light green over here we'll we'll get our our five and a quarter but we potentially stay there at a pause for longer this is that higher for longer argument right and the reason I think this that maybe we don't actually end up getting any kind of cut until let's say September and we sit at this pause level for longer is because we know the Federal Reserve does not want to make the same mistake that they made in none other than the 1970s in the 1970s the FED took this approach of start stop start stop with rates and that ended up being a big mistake because it broke inflation expectations because inflation expectations have been so incredibly anchored over this entire cycle I personally think it's highly likely that we're going to have a pause for much longer than markets are anticipating uh now what does that mean potentially for the stock market well I think a pause for longer is actually a good thing you still get your sort of the FED suggesting hey we're conquering inflation we're going to pause so you get the benefit what does this do it creates the we'll put benefits it creates the benefit of we didn't break everything uh so didn't over tighten right benefits of pause for longer that's what I'm calling it the benefits of a pause for longer we didn't break everything we didn't over tighten which Jay pal says hey there's no evidence that we've over tightened which I would argue differently that there are some evidences that we've over tightened but anyway benefits of pause for longer we didn't break everything uh we don't repeat the mistakes of the 70s that created hyperinflation but in addition to that benefit we can support a Nike Swoosh stock market now why is that well first of all it is what has been happening as interest rates were actually projected to go up what happened well the stock market actually also went up and even though we've been somewhat volatile over here we've been somewhat stable uh and so the Nike Swoosh thesis if we kind of uh draw the Nike Swoosh as sort of a big down and then a big Trend Channel up with a lot of volatility in it we could see our Nike Swoosh this Nike Swoosh expecting to take potentially 10 years as we start our next Bull Run now what does that potentially mean for real estate well real estate is probably the biggest outlier right now we really don't know uh and that's because even though treasury yields have come down spreads on mortgages have gone up so mortgages are still pretty expensive and right now because there's such a lack of inventory you're actually seeing prices in many markets start Rising uh year over year again and they're escaping that potential year-over-year negativity that we would have expected for next month may had prices even just state level we're actually starting to see those move up you know that could uh turn upside down in other words real estate could get hit substantially harder in the event inventory skyrockets as uh reads start liquidating or professional institutional investors start liquidating I think it's unlikely that any kind of liquidations are going to come from regular households via short sales or foreclosures or whatever uh so instead I think it's likely that the stock market continues it sort of Nike Swoosh on Trend up we have this higher for longer regime in the stock market right and this is Kevin's Crystal Ball but I do think that this this takes a lot longer to rotate down I think the FED is going to be okay with slightly higher inflation for longer slightly higher inflation for longer via no wage price spiral that we we already know the conditions of that are not present we know that very clearly looking at almost any earnings call from the last three to six months of companies who who employ uh or higher labor uh but also the principle of flexible average inflation targeting which would suggest that the FED is okay with higher inflation rate for longer because as long as it averages two percent over the long term they're okay with that and they can take opportunistic inflation to get there rather than Breaking markets so what you have here is this combination of I think the Bond Market is a little enthusiastic assuming that we're going into this deep dark recession I I think that upper end consumers still have plenty of money to spend and probably will for another year uh but by that time we should be convinced that inflation is actually lower which might loosen banking standards again as uh as rates slowly start coming down so I think the the loosening of banking standards comes when inflation is convincingly down right and then that's actually where we cut when the FED cuts it's a huge indicator this cycle that they've won on inflation the FED winning on inflation is everything here folks this is not the FED cutting because they care about recession or not they will gladly Force us into a recession if they need to what the FED cares about is concrete inflation and that's I think why we end up with a pause for a lot longer before we start getting Cuts I think the Bond Market is being a little excited anticipating as many Cuts now what I do think if I were to draw in real estate here this is going to be a little bit trickier but but let's try to make a projection here with real estate so I think that real estate prices uh State stayed higher for longer I think we had our adjustment down in real estate you know about 10 20 in some areas you're starting to see this right now where you're trending up in Florida for example you're actually positive so you're starting to see a trend up the only way you could really push that down is if you get substantial inventory increases which so far we're not seeing but people right now seem to be comfortable with these higher rates and it's leading to more of a soft appreciating market now if we then as interest rates potentially start coming down the traditional argument is that okay well rates are starting to come down as the FED cuts the traditional argument is oh great well that means raise prices are going to go up again right not necessarily what is actually entirely possible with real estate is that as rates come down more people decide to sell uh people who've been locked in and they didn't want to take a high seven percent loan or whatever and you actually keep this pressure down on real estate whereas you're increasing inventory and as rates are coming down you're actually just staying stable and I actually think this is going to create a wonderful window of opportunity to buy I don't think you necessarily have to try to time here or if we end up getting any kind of like little bit of a dip again over here I don't think you have to be perfect on that I think as an investor you want to look at this future over here and there are two main Investments that you want to be making right now uh well maybe not necessarily immediately right now for real estate but soon you want to be getting into real estate obviously I have a course on teaching you exactly how to go from zero to millionaire uh through real estate investing and I think this flat period of time we might face or even a slight dip again we don't know it's going to be one of those I think although it's also possible that you know real estate just goes to the moon again as the money printer is turned on though I think that's less likely I think first we go through some form of inventory shock which either drives prices down more or it just levels them out right uh and that that will create a beautiful window of opportunity which we'll have more insight on by the third quarter that's when I expect to start buying for my real estate startup so I think by the third quarter we start having some nice opportunities to really start buying in sort of this flatter market for longer at the same time and in the meantime hopping on to this Nike Swoosh recovery of the stock market trending up as inflation proves to go away so this is a a pretty detailed in my opinion thesis going forward now what are what are the risk factors here uh the risk factors that would encourage you by kevin.com live all right risk factors remember none of this is financial advice it's non-personal Financial advice I am a license financial advisor but I don't know you so I can't give you personal financial advice so when I say I think it makes sense to go long stocks which I've been saying for a while now and soon it's going to make sense to really go long real estate and then acquire as much assets as you can over this next decade that's not personalized Financial advice I just think it's good Financial advice uh broad generic Financial advice right I think everybody should be doing that so what are the risk factors here well obviously the risk factor is that if uh if if we have we have sticky inflation which we'll see more about tomorrow if we have sticky inflation on services then expectations on inflation could on anchor and we end up getting Paul volckerd right and then what you have is the worst case scenario worst case uh there we go so that's the worst case scenario is we get Paul Walker that's deep dark dirty recession right this would be very bad it's entirely possible that this could happen I would put about a five percent risk on this I think you're you're five percent looking at Paul volcker and I think you're probably more like a 20 uh recession for longer so I would call it like a shallow shallow low growth recession for longer ironically a low growth recession actually leads to a flight towards growth stocks like big Tech safe safe growth stocks save ones so I think that's why you're not seeing as much of a sell-off on uh some of the the mega cap names uh we know that yesterday Apple had a had a pretty big hit in terms of uh their numbers for PC shipments Mac shipments but the darn things down like one and a half to two percent so not that big of a deal uh the stock market is rotating down at the time of recording this video and I think a lot of that will be in anticipation of CPI tomorrow so I wouldn't judge the content in this video by stock market performance today I would go into CPI data tomorrow and see does this make sense is it possible that we could actually end up with the benefits of pause for longer and disinflation leading to great opportunities for us to buy in the Nike Swoosh and in the real estate flatness while at the same time recognizing that yes there are risks of Paul volcker but they seem far-fetched in other words I I think it's also worth noting that any kind of d dollarization d dollarization if you've watched any of my videos on the dollar of the past three weeks here I think this is also a far-fetched uh idea I think war with Taiwan is far-fetched uh so I I think these are these are risks that that are less likely in my opinion they do have some Merit though uh so so we'll see uh this is uh this is in my opinion something that is uh is sort of an investing Outlook and now within this scope we could explore Pro or companies within that scope so that's my thesis on what's going on in markets so hopefully uh that is helpful to you make sure to check out those programs and build your wealth link down below hopping over to the course member live stream now appreciate y'all being here another me Kevin reward and we'll see in the next one and now for my CPI production I believe that a CPI month over month headline will actually come in low at 0.1 percent which would be fantastic I also believe that core will come in and instead of 0.4 it will come in at point three so just nominally a little smidgen Below on both of the month over month figures again the expectation is 0.2 and 0.4 I'm at point one and point three that's my take I think the banking crisis would have to have kind of basically moved these estimates a whole Notch lower by about point one percent I think there was a lot of oh in March and that's part of my basis in addition to the research that we're doing I don't think that we're going to get a missed to the upside I think that's substantially less likely than just a match so I'm going to go probably 65 chance 0.1 and uh 0.3 for the core the uh base case would be uh I guess I wouldn't call it the base case because my base case is coming in low but the market Space Case is 0.2 and 0.4 I would put that maybe a 30 chance and then maybe a five percent chance we get something hot so I don't see hot after that banking crisis I could be wrong though and I will experience being wrong with you tomorrow if I'm wrong and if I'm right I'm right so I'm optimistic we'll put it that way see you soon and now my CPI prediction my CPI prediction is based on the shock of well the banking crisis in March and I actually think we hit a little bit of more of a wall than economists are actually projecting economists are projecting 0.2 month over month and core 0.4 I think each of these will come in Low by 0.1 percent I think we'll be coming in at a CPI month of a month of 0.1 I only align with about four out of about 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on this so I'm super super on the left edge of this now when it comes to the the right Edge in other words it's coming in hot I think that's very unlikely I think there's probably a 60 chance we come in low point one percent CPI month over month 60 chance we come in at point three uh on the CPI core month over month uh I think it's more of like a 35 30 35 likelihood that we come in at uh expectations which would be point two percent month over month point four percent month over month core and then only like a five percent chance that we come in above that's my take it could end up being wrong if I'm wrong we'll be wrong together but that's my belief and I'm sticking to it I think the Nike Swoosh is holding I think we are going to start seeing at least some early indicators of uh Services disinflation no signs that inflation is rebounding that's what we're looking for so hopefully fingers crossed we'll see you tomorrow morning at 5 30 a.m Pacific Time 8 30 a.m standard eastern time uh eastern time not Central I think I could say Eastern Standard Time hey whatever eastern time we'll see you then there bye
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