저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 2008년 금융위기 대응(현금 71%를 은행주에 투입)과 '합리성' 철학을 소개하는 영상이며, 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향 예측은 없음. [배경] 2013년 월스트리트저널 기사(Jason Zweig)를 인용해 멍거의 투자 사례를 소개함. [2008년 금융위기 대응] 2009년 1분기 Daily Journal 현금 71%를 공포 속 은행주에 투입, 2009년 3월 31일 기준 60% 수익, 추가 매수 포함 4,970만 달러 투입 → 당시 128백만 달러 가치(기사 기준). [추정 포트폴리오] 최대 보유는 웰스파고로 추정, 다음 U.S. Bancorp. [철학] 멍거는 '합리성'을 핵심 자질로 꼽음. 기상학 훈련 배경으로 확률적 사고 강조. [역경의 교훈] 이혼과 아들의 백혈병 사망 경험이 '역경은 본모습을 보여줄 기회'라는 교훈을 줬다고 언급. [독서와 사고] 역사·과학·전기·심리학 독서로 인간의 어리석음을 진단하는 능력 형성. [기다림의 투자] '앉아서 기다리기(sitting on your ass)' 전략: 좋은 기업을 찾아 장기 보유하며 시장 소음 무시. [투자 환경] 많은 펀드매니저가 시장 이기기에 집착하는 것과 대비, 멍거·버핏은 조용히 읽고 생각하며 의사결정 횟수를 줄이는 방식을 택함. [알리바바] 2013년 이후 Daily Journal이 알리바바 외에는 추가 매수하지 않았다고 언급하며, 알리바바 보유 결정이 즉흥적이 아니라 멍거의 접근법에 따른 것이라고 설명. [진행자 의견] 멍거의 투자 접근법을 깊이 이해하며 이를 공유하려 함, 근본 아이디어에 기반한 현실적 투자 방식이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
what's up cmq cmq investors charlie bunger is my favorite investor of all time and i recently came across an article from 2013 believe it or not an article that i didn't even know existed that detailed some of the master market moves that charlie munger made during the 2008 financial crisis on behalf of the daily journal corps portfolio that is the same portfolio that you know some on twitter are saying that charlie ruined um you know by loading up on alibaba this was really interesting to me and it's a great lesson there's a lot of great lessons here that i think we all can use even if you're not the biggest charlie munger fan this is pretty cool so it comes from the wall street journal it was published on august 30th 2013 by one of my favorite authors jason zweig it's titled charlie munger lessons from an investing giant one of the least appreciated virtues in investing is courage filings with the sec commission in march and again this month showed the extraordinary gumption of charlie munger warren buffett's business partner and vice chairman of berkshire hathaway now keep in mind just to jump in here real quick charlie munger was nowhere near as well known in 2013 as he is now and he's still not that well known but just keep that in mind little context i think might have been missing or i should have said when we started mr munger who will turn 90 years old next january 1st is a model for individual investors who wonder how they can possibly be professionals at their own game what makes mr munger a model for individual investors here comes the story this is again i had no idea about this in the first quarter of 2009 during the most desperate days of the financial crisis mr munger took 71 percent of the cash at daily journal a small publishing company he chairs and poured it into the bank stocks that so many other investors were fleeing by march 31 2009 his bet already had gained 60 percent with other purchases he made later mr monger invested 49.7 million dollars into stocks and bonds that are today worth 128 million mr munger it says here was out of the office this past week and unreachable for a comment and that is what his assistant said but there's a note that during the daily journal's annual meeting in february and again this is in 2013 uh and according to an online transcript that was typed up by one of the attendees mr munger said we behaved pretty sensibly by moving boldly out of cash when stock prices got quote ridiculously low i'm going to skip ahead a little bit here and i'll put the link in the description if you're interested where does mr munger get his gumption in the late 1980s he recalled in a magazine interview a guest at a dinner party had asked him tell me what one quality accounts for your enormous success mr munger's reply and this by the way this is classic charlie munger he says i'm rational that's the answer i'm rational trained as a meteorologist at the california institute of technology mr munger thinks in terms of probabilities rather than certainties an early divorce in the death of his young son from leukemia taught mr munger that adversity provides an opportunity to show what you're made of i love that let me say that again adversity provides an opportunity to show what you are made of decades of voracious reading in history science biography and psychology have made him an acute diagnostician of human folly charlie has such a deep sense of stoicism says a longtime friend christopher davis he seems to be able to invert emotions becoming uninterested when other people are euphoric and then deeply engaged when others are uncertain or fearful mr munger favors what he calls sitting on your ass the investing where you find a few great companies and just sit on your ass because you've correctly predicted the future that is what it's very nice to be good at regardless of what the investing crowd is doing until a good investment finally materializes in the panic that typically produces such an opportunity mr munger ruminates if he likes what he sees he pounces charlie knows exactly what he thinks and the fact that other people don't agree has no impact on him says his friend john frank managing principal at oak tree capital management in los angeles he doesn't get confused about the difference between an emotional feeling and an intellectual understanding many money managers spend their days in meetings rifling through emails staring at stock quote machines with financial television flickering in the background while they obsess about beating the market mr munger and mr buffett on the other hand sit in a quiet room and read and think and talk to people on the phone says shane parrish a money manager who edits farnam street a compelling blog about decision making by organizing their lives to tune out distractions and make fewer decisions he adds mr munger and mr buffett have tilted their odds towards making better decisions right probabilities mr munger in the daily journal haven't disclosed which stocks he bought during the crisis but jacob wolinski of value walk an investing website believes the largest position was in wells fargo followed by u.s bank corp mr buffett declined to comment as well other than to say and i quote charlie is indeed rational end quote very cool and i have the daily journals uh portfolio you can see they haven't added anything other than alibaba since 2013.
i know i mentioned that in the past alibaba video when i was trying to convey that this was not a you know decision that was just made on a whim you know this is charlie munger doing what charlie munger does i i really do believe i understand his approach to investing in a really deep usable way and i try to share that as much as i can because i you know what he does is not what everyone does but it's rooted in these big ideas that underlie reality you know it's big fundamental ideas or models that really work um it's not based on anything else it's one of the most i the way that i see it one of the most realistic ways to look at the investment game or the process that you could possibly have thanks so much for watching for cmq investing my name is chris franco we'll talk soon
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