저자: 미상 · 외국인
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브로드컴은 반도체·인프라 소프트웨어(VMware 인수) 두 축의 다각화 기업으로 매출 358억달러, 매출총이익률 70%대, FCF 176억달러 등 재무가 탄탄하다. 1년 수익률 약 90%로 급등했으나 밸류에이션은 선행 PER 약 24배로 엔비디아 대비 부담이 적다고 봤다. 애널리스트 목표가 평균 1,494달러 등 상승 여지를 언급하며 주가 조정 가능성도 함께 지적했다. 발표자는 보유 중인 5주를 유지하고 추가 매수·매도는 하지 않겠다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
asalam alikum everyone welcome back to another video I hope you're having a wonderful day as we all know the semiconductors have been absolutely killing it in the last couple of months since November they have been going up since Nvidia started that whole Trend AI situation going on is everything else has been going up so what I would like to do today is check one of the best performing S&P 500 since since November since let's say for the one year so this company is up 9 90 something per for the one year which is absolutely ridiculous so I'm going to go over I'm going to give you information about the company financials estimates valuations and then I'll tell you my plan at the end of the video If you like this type of content please subscribe to the channel let me know if you have any questions I do appreciate everything you guys do for me so please just like that video it will make a huge difference to the YouTube algorithm as well as of course you can join us on the patreon account where you get access to all the dividend trackers that we use as well as the Discord where you can actually meet a lot of brothers who are sharing very good practices on daily basis where they actually sharing the stuff they're buying stuff they're selling talking about the news and everything else in between right so let's talk about this company and this company is broadcom this is one of the biggest Holdings I have in my portfolio I've had this company in this portfolio for a very very long time I do remember the days where this company was s of undervalued um I used to talk about it a lot I wish I bought more at that time um so what I would like to do today just first of all give you a little bit information about the company and then we'll look at the financials we look at the estimates and we'll look at the valuations and then of course we'll look at um my plan moving forward inshallah so as you can see here right now is up for the one year 90 almost to 5% which is absolutely huge and for the year to date it's actually not bad 12% everything else is like Nvidia and all of them they up quite a lot but when it comes to the um broadcom it's only 12% and I say only 12% if the S&P 500 goes to 12% a year we're happy that's basically the you know the Benchmark if you like um for the last 6 months is up 48% and this is the most important part so November since November these companies have been going up so almost a 50% up since beginning of that time so what does the company do so this company I'm just going to give you a little bit of flavor over what the company that's first of all as you can see here this is the report that they made in 201 um physical year of 2023 and they had a net revenue of $ 35.8 billion so they're not a really small company at all and as you can see here I like the fact that it's investing almost the 5.3 well over five five billion dollars in research and development so just that one year which is really good because the way things are going right now with the a Ai and everything else you would expect these type of businesses to actually in basically have some sort of AI with within and this is the reason why the company has gone up so much this company came from all sorts of things so they have two sectors two segments within their business so they have the infrastructure software and they have the semiconductors and over the years these companies have come together to form what we know right now as broadcom and VMware was the latest purchase so they've included VMware just now and we'll talk about that in a second so this is the revenue segment okay so infrastructure software which is now getting bigger because of VMware and then you've got the semiconductor Solutions and the semiconductor Solutions include networking Ser server um storage Broadband includes Wireless includes Industrials as well as um million other little things main main frame distributed cyber security storage area networking and Cloud infrastructure is also the software side of things and when you look at this basically this company in terms of networking they have they have handson in terms of switching rooting for example physical layers Optical interconnected ethernet and so on same same goes for server and storage um connectivity so we talking about here the Enterprise so different types of businesses fiber channels and fiber channels as well again basically rat and adapters so any company that has their own data centers will use chips that this company creates any business that has its own connections will use basically devices this company creates and then they also have the end to endend so the Broadband side of things end to end Solutions where you got all these devices that allow us to communicate with the internet and so on so on and basically they sell all of these things okay top of that you've got the wireless side of things so every single device we have these days have some sort of a chips that was created by this company and then finally you've got the industrial automatic um automation renewable and Automotive so every single sector you can think of solutions this company has something in it now the software side of things we're looking at Enterprise class Solutions okay like we've already seen the main frame sorry the main frame hybrid CL Cloud um distributed security identity management and payment security so it has handson everywhere else and now they bought VMware hybrid Cloud portfolio which has its own basically set of basically um product that they provide so it really is in a one of the best companies a well diverse company in my opinion out there um this company and qualcom have a wide range of products that they basically provide to every company out there and as you can see here the revenue side of things it has been growing from since 2019 we're looking at22 billion 22 half to right now 35 $ 35.8 billion which is absolutely huge gross uh margin basically about in the 70s and adjusted e of $23 billion right now and free cash flow has been increasing every single year from $9 billion to 19 $17.6 billion which is quite nice now when it comes to the dividend side of it okay which is one of the reasons at the time when I was buying this company I was looking at Growth Company that pays dividend so when I found this one I was very surprised so since 2016 they've increased that compan annual grth rate of 35% which is absolutely huge from $1.94 to right now $21 which is absolutely massive now looking at um here so we've got market cap of 574 billion they pay 1.69 dividend yield I remember when the dividend yield was almost the 3% now it has come down because the price has gone up okay um now in terms of payout ratio only 46% in terms of latest increase was 14% And The 5-year growth rate of 19% which is quite nice in the last 10 years about 36% okay which is quite nice which is what we've seen early now as you can see since 2016 they've M they've grown this um basically this massively 13 years of increase in that dividend right now you will get $21 for every share of this company that you own and uh looking at the dividend there we go the 5e average so the last four years that I've had this company I've seen this company around it was around 3% so since then of course it has come down quite a bit because the price has gone up so right now the 5year average is 3.12 and the current is 1.69 So based on that it seems bit overvalued right now and the forward PE which is interesting okay the 5 average used to be about 15 right now it's about 24 right even if this was 25 that's not expensive in comparison to nvidia's which is like in the 40s and so on so it's really not that bad I think a call coming might be around the same or slightly lower I've got a video coming out for qualcom as well so watch out for that one if you haven't liked the video yet please do so because it really helps the channel so now looking at Innings um payout ratio as normally we say 50% right now it's about 42% free cash payout ratio of 35% normally we say 50 which is nice earnings per share has grown from4 $4.90 to right now $50 um per per share free cash flow per share is also growing up in the right direction from $3 to now $60 which is absolutely huge shares outstanding they have been diluting the shares but and they have actually diluted this year because of course and they were um you know buying VM way I'm sure they've used some of that money which is not bad for me like the fact that the revenue that's going to come from um VMware we'll cover that I I'm not really worried about so in maybe next couple of years you will see them buying back again and total sales you can see here from 4 4.27 billion to right now $38 billion and return on Equity right now 25% and return on invested capital of about 10% Opera margins of 40% a free cash flow margin of 49% which is absolutely huge I don't think there's there many companies that sort of have that sort of a margins um net de to that right now it's above that 1.5 but it's not huge it's 1.98 so it has come down from previously where it was so I've absolutely got nothing to worry about then it comes to that debt level one of the other things I like about this company if we go to the financials and go to statements here this is the total revenue so from since 202 U 2014 to right now where we at at 2023 um 2023 basically the last physical year so you can see every year was growing okay the cost of it was 1.9 billion to right now about $10 billion okay but look at this the gross profit which is absolutely that that 70% that we've seen already that's absolutely huge and I really like this because I don't like companies that spend so much of basically whatever they make in is basically closer to the cost of that revenue and then the net income isn't that much whereas this company is about $26.5 billion of that 35 billion is actually gross profit which is really nice to see and then that means they will have a nice net income which then of course gives us a excellent free cash flow so the if I show you some of the free cash cash flow here I think I bet I like using mon um Yahoo finance for the free cash flow so I'll share that with you guys in a second and as you can see here from $ 11.5 billion to right now $8.3 billion of free cash flow which is absolutely huge so it has grown every single year for the last basically 5 years and I really like that this is and this is one of the reasons when I first invested in this company of course that dividend was really nice and so on but of course is a company where basically they don't have a lot of um costs associated with that making that Revenue now looking at the earnings expectations so if we move on to the earning estimates right so 11% almost 12% next year and the 2024 this year then next year so almost to 22% and then 133% so if we just focus on these double nice double digits for the next 3 years and the revenue side of it look at this 40% and I think a lot of that is comes from VMware of course okay but the following year it balances again so 13.5 and then 9 UM 9% which is absolutely fine there's nothing to worry about now looking at yaho Finance as you can see here next year they're expecting about 21% growth then 14% every year for for the following 5 years which is absolutely fine now one more thing we need to look at here is the ratings so we going to go to Wall Street and see what they saying so 20 buys here 20 strong buys wow and seven buys seven holes and one on sale so right now it's about 177% upside from where it is they saying $1,494 per this is increasing I think was Bist that actually said today they've actually increased it to 1,400 so barless came out today and said basically they it's a buy rating for them now 1,400 I think that's the price they said and now looking at Morning Star as you can see just two stars here 14% premium according to them $1,090 per share is where they think the price should be the company has a wide economic mode looking at the basically the past so looking at the total return in the last 10 years you can see about 20 35% which is absolutely huge so finally I want to show you where what I think about the company moving forward okay so um this is Mony star valuation this is seeing Alpha this is my discounted cash flow model and then simply Wall Street all of them aage out you get 1,200 uh $1,293 per share right now right now is 1,2 $59 per share that's about 3% difference and again if you think this company is very risky you might want to take 10% okay $1,164 per share is where you think the price should be uh moving forward and again that's not unrealistic okay because we can see a correction and then that might happen but if you say 5 5% okay use 1,228 and that can be just in couple of weeks if it couple of days it can go down because it seems very volatile recently because if follows in whatever Nvidia is doing um super micro and basically this company is almost following Nvidia like for like so will'll be interesting to see what happens so what is my plan what is my situation right now I've actually trimmed this company not long ago and when I did that I can't remember what the price was let me just quickly sh um share that with you guys so this is the trims as to two um that I've sold was $1,130 per share at that time and I made it about ,000 off that sale of the two now I'm not selling anymore I'm not buying more either okay I'm going to leave it alone there are other opportunities so right now if I buy more that means I'm averaging it up where I have other companies other opportunities that I feel like are better moving forward inshah this compan is great I've done well alhamdulillah I'm going to only hold on to the my five companies five shares um and that collected that dividend so the raising dividend I've got from this company was almost £25 so I'm going to keep collecting that dividend and just leave leave it alone for for a bit if it comes back down again then of course I'll look at it again but right now trading around these prices where my actual um you know the let me show you I think it was 400 something my average $483 per share that's absolutely ridiculous I'm not paying over that much so I'm going to leave it alone inshallah and of course I if something changes I'll let you know um what happens that's all I wanted to share with you guys today and like I've always said to you guys do your own research find out bit more you might completely disagree with me by the way and that's absolutely fine I really genuinely appreciate that and of course do your own research you know have your plan and this is just for take it for a bit for as a bit of entertainment hopefully bit of information and just take it from there inshallah have a wonderful dayalam alikum
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