I Was Incredibly Wrong About Tesla Cybertruck | TSLA Stock Analysis

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테슬라 사이버트럭 3,878대 리콜 뉴스를 계기로, 리콜 자체보다 누적 인도량이 극히 적다는 점을 문제로 지적. 1분기 인도는 1만 대 미만으로 추정되며 월 1,000대 수준 페이스. 생산능력 12.5만 대 및 연 25만 대 목표 대비 크게 뒤처져 있고, 리콜로 신차 구매 망설임이 더 커질 수 있다고 봄. 2024년 10만 대 예측을 낮출 가능성을 시사.

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01. hey everyone we got some more big news for Tesla stock investors today as the company had to recall thousands of cyber trucks for an issue to fix now the bigger news here in my opinion is not the recall nearly all automakers face a recall some point or another some automakers face recalls multiple times per year this is just the course of doing business if it's a uh an issue that continues and persists all the time then that would be something else but for Tesla their cars they haven't had to have these types of recalls most of their recalls have been updates software updates they can do without people having to return the cars physically so I think there's a bigger issue here and I'll talk about that in this video I think it's interesting so let's jump he official report from Bloomberg said that Tesla recalled 3,878 cyber truck pickups to rework or replace accelerator pedals that can dislodge and cause the vehicle to unintentionally accelerate increasing the risk of a crash now before this report came out there were uh posts and other news outlets saying that people who had ordered a Tesla truck and they had delivery dates confirmed were getting notices from Tesla that their deliveries would be cancelled or delayed and pushed out further and now we understand we get a better understanding of why those reports were coming out it could have been those issues they wanted to fix them before they delivered those cyber trucks to customers which is a prudent thing to do right you don't want to deliver it to the customer if you know it has an issue and it's going to need to be brought back in next week or in a couple of days so that's a prudent move uh people should be happy that Tesla took that cautious step to keep those trucks fixed them before they deliver them to customers but I I teased a little bit at what the bigger issue is here and it's in plain sight here the number of cyber trucks 3,878 so here we are April 20th more than four months into the year and of course this is not the precise number of how many cyber trucks that Tesla has sold so far but it's a pretty good approximation right if you need to recall cyber trucks and you're recalling 3,900 of them that's probably how many they've delivered so far and we're almost half let's say almost five months into the year that's a pace of less than 1,000 per month less than 12,000 for the year year now I know Tesla mentioned that it was going to be a longer ramp than usual let me share with you Tesla's comments on the Cyber truck so Tesla said at gigafactory te Texas they began production of the Cyber truck and delivered the first units to customers here's the key part here we expect the ramp of cyber truck to be longer than other models given its manufacturing capacity so it could be that it's going to be very back half heavy in terms of their production and delivery and sales for the Cyber truck in 2024 that's understandable they already gave us a heads up about that but look at their capacity Tesla has cybertruck capacity enough to produce over 125,000 units and I initially thought that they would approach that number for 2024 and the reasoning behind my prediction for over 100,000 units of cyber Truck Sales was Tesla's willingness willingness to slash prices to increase sales I thought since they have 125,000 capacity and they want this to be a success and they want to produce more units so that they can in the future sell FSD and all other types of software upgrades that they would slash prices to to sell the Cyber truck but given the number we got so far 3,900 they're way behind my initial prediction if if you if you don't remember I made this video giving my shocking Tesla cyber truck prediction for 2024 and it is a bit shocking now because they're nowhere near my estimates here I did a scenario analysis up here where I looked at three different scenarios Tesla producing 100 25,000 units because that's the maximum they had 100,000 units and 75,000 units and my conclusion was that they would fall somewhere around the 100,000 unit Mark for 2024 in cybertruck production and it looks like I'm going to be way off unless the second half of the year is exponentially better than what we've seen so far in the first four months of the year at just 4,000 means they would need to do like gez 990,000 in the SEC between now and the end of the year more than 990,000 that seems highly unlikely although it could potentially do that it seems highly unlikely another data point that had me thinking their cyber trucks were going better than initially expected or better than most had expected is the number they highlighted on April 2nd so they gave us their production and delivery numbers and and they break down model 3 and model Y and then other models so these this is the model S the model X and included in here is the Cyber truck so they noted 177,000 deliveries in the first quarter and if you compare that to what they did in the previous quarter of just Model S and model X because last year that's the only two they had cyber truck wasn't included here that was 10,695 so I looked at it 17,000 compared to 11,000 the difference could have been roughly 6,000 units of the Cyber Tru but so far what I'm seeing here is roughly 4,000 units and this is even a few weeks after this number here so it's looking like less than 10,000 units um if we were to try and get a a more uh rough estimate of how many cyber trucks Tesla has sold year to date it looks like less than 10,000 units they've delivered actually maybe they've sold more and they have yet to deliver them but in terms of delivery it looks like less than 10,000 units for the first quarter of the year and that's on Pace for less than 1,000 per month so it's not looking good so far for the Cyber truck the rest of the year could be better it could go better uh but so far year to date not looking good and then the recall is not going to help right all the publicity around the Cyber truck having issues uh people that were on the fence now are going to be like ah I don't know maybe I'll hold off on this because it's not a cheap truck it's on the higher end of of prices for trucks and if you're having an issue already and people are usually hesitant to come out and purchase a brand new model because the newer models are the ones that typically have issues that haven't been worked out yet and so this isn't going to help their sales of this uh cyber truck so I thought that was the bigger issue here in this news release the recall of 3,900 uh cyber trucks sure every automaker faces recalls so that wasn't my main thing to think about when I saw this headline when I saw this headline the first thing I thought was that's all they've shipped out 3,900 that's not very much in terms of how much they've uh delivered versus the capacity they have remember they've prepared they have capacity for over 125,000 units and Elon Musk has kind of talked about by the end of next year or at equilibrium at full scale once they've reached fulls scale production they hope to sell roughly a qu million or 250,000 units of the Cyber truck annually so this is way way behind that pace so that's the number that stood out to me not really the recall so interesting to be sure I'd be curious to hear your thoughts what you're thinking about um the Cyber truck and sales and and how it relates to the ramp up of the Cyber truck