저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표(4/23) 전 주가 하락(연초 대비 -41%) 상황에서 인도량 감소와 잦은 가격 인하로 수익성 악화 우려가 크다고 분석. 1분기 생산 433,000대·인도 386,000대로 전년보다 감소, 재고 증가로 EPS 추정치는 하향 조정 중(51센트). 매출총이익률은 약 29-30%에서 18.25%로 하락했고 추가 하락 전망. 밸류에이션(선행 PER 38)은 자동차 및 빅테크 대비 여전히 비쌈. 실적 확인 전까지 매수 비추천, 실적 후 판단 유보.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Tesla is set to report earnings after the Market's close on Tuesday April 2023 and with the stock price already down 40% year-to date investors are asking if they should buy Tesla stock before it releases earnings I'll answer that question in this video so come along and let me share with you the information I'm looking at to make that decisio I already mentioned that Tesla's posting earnings April 23rd 2024 and one of the main things investors already know is its production and delivery numbers Tesla produced 433,000 vehicles and delivered 386,000 vehicles for the first quarter of 2024 notably those numbers are lower than the production numbers and delivery numbers from the same quarter the prior year more importantly deliveries were 422,000 however that's not going to impact its earnings per share and here's why when a company makes inventory it's a cash transaction cash leaves the the company for materials and labor Etc to build the car and the car sits on the company's balance sheet as inventory it doesn't go on as cost of goods sold it only gets recorded in the income statement as cost of goods sold when they make a sale so as long as this inventory isn't sold in the quarter it won't get recorded in the income statement as a cost so it won't show up on the income statement versus income Revenue minus expenses to demonstrate profitability these inventories will show up likely in the next quarter when Tesla eventually sells these cars then that expense will show up as a cost of good sold inventory is only accounted for on the income statement once they are sold as an expense previous to that they're recorded on the cash flow statement as cash leaving the company and inventory coming in and then when they get sold its inventory going out its Revenue coming in and a cost of goods associated with that sale so if it costs them 30,000 to make each one of these vehicles they're not going to have to expense all 433,000 they produced they only have to expense the 386,000 that they deliver the rest of it they account for on the balance sheet on the cash flow statement and then when they sell it then they account for it on the income statement I hope that clarifies things for Tesla stock investors now in terms of earnings per share the analyst on Wall Street that are following Tesla stock they think it's going to deliver 51 cents in earnings per share when they report their current earnings that's down from 54 cents they expected 7 days ago 63 cents 30 days ago and 79 cents 90 days ago so Tesla's earnings per share expectations have been revised lower and lower and lower again for the upcoming quarter as Wall Street becomes more aware of Tesla's troubled demand environment now those earnings per share come as the company is struggling with falling EV demand and I shared with you that their delivery numbers were down year-over-year and normally that wouldn't be such a bad thing but when you add to the fact that Tesla's been flashing prices on all of their models that makes that look even worse because you're cutting prices several several times right at least five times they've cut prices I lost count how many times they cut prices and still your sales are declining that makes it look worse because you've got falling prices and falling sales but it's not just Tesla that's cutting prices according to new data that came out EV prices are down 18.3% in April of 2024 versus April of 2023 while non-ev prices are down 13.1% EVS are fairing much worse than non-ev cars the whole car industry is normalizing remember when car companies were selling vehicles at 10 20,000 above MSRP during those supply chain shortages earlier in the Pandemic those days are gone inventory is building up and these car companies are having to slash prices to make sales it's not a good time to own a car company it's not a good time to be an investor in a car company especially an EV company and Tesla can tell you several stories about that so I mentioned already deliveries are down right and they slashed prices and so that's going to hurt profit margins gross profit margin for Tesla peaked at around 29 30% and they've been falling since those Peaks it's now down to 18.25% in the latest update when the company announces earnings I wouldn't be surprised if this moves lower in fact I would be shocked if it doesn't move lower because the combination of slashing prices and lower unit sales is always bad news for gross profit margins so I would be shocked if this is not significantly lower closer to 14 maybe 15% it could be much worse than that I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches 10 11 12% to be frank it's not going to be good for its gross profit margin now Tesla will try and tell a story in the earnings report for investors to wait for August 8th when it's going to make an announcement regarding its Robo taxi but that's a little bit far away I'm sure Tesla is going to get questions from Wall Street analysts about that day about what they're going to announce that day what investors can expect from that day because a lot of investors are keyed up on what Tesla can deliver on Robo taxi because regular car sales EV sales are struggling and they don't look like they're going to turn around anytime soon and so Tesla's got to feed investors Another Story Another reason to keep them engaged because right now it's not looking good now Tesla stock of course I mentioned it's down 41% year-to date so far in 2024 and it's now trading at a forward price to earnings of 38 still if you compare this forward price to earnings to other car companies Tesla's like three four five six times more expensive than Ford stellantis um GM and other Legacy automakers right it's it's one of the only EV compan compes that's profitable right now and so it deserves a premium valuation but it's still more expensive than those companies and if you compare Tesla to tech stocks like Nvidia AMD Microsoft Apple alphabet meta platforms Tesla is still more expensive than all of those companies I just mentioned by a considerable margin by at least 33% and more if you compare to others I believe it's roughly double the valuation of alpha bet stock so just to paint a picture of the stock price declining but the valuation still being expensive because Tesla stock was so expensive to begin with there was so much enthusiasm for Tesla investors jumped into the stock and sared valuation investors didn't mind the explosive valuation because they were looking forward to what Tesla could be 5 10 20 years from now with little evidence to show that progress still if you're thinking about Tesla stock if you're thinking about investing in Tesla stock I would caution against investing before the company announces earnings so heading into the earnings results I would say Tesla stock is not a buy and then after evaluating the earnings results I will update that recommendation if there is significant information that comes out regarding the lower priced model if there is information that comes out regarding the robo taxi Tesla recently cut the price of its FSD full self-driving software by half if there's some information regarding how many customers purchased the FSD upgrade since it made that announcement if there's positive information regarding the Tesla truck all of which could change my opinion on Tesla stock but I need to find out more from the earnings results because as it stands I have have zero interest in Tesla stock at these valuations I feel it's too expensive so I need to see the earnings I need to see the information regarding those critical components about Tesla's business and then I can update my recommendation then
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