저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가는 EV 업계 부진과 애널리스트 이익 추정치 하향으로 약세. 2024년 목표가 기존 150~250달러에서 125~165달러로 하향. 포워드 PE 38.7배로 비싸다고 판단해 보유/비추천 유지. 8월 8일 로보택시 발표에 대한 기대가 있으나 실체 의문. 이익 추정치 341달러 기준 PE 유지 시 132달러, 기술주 밸류 적용 시 19달러 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone roughly 1 month ago I updated my Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 and since then so much has changed that's required another update to my Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 so that's what I'll do here in this video I'll incorporate all of the new information that's come out since my last video predicting where Tesla stock price could be and I'll update and I'll give you my new price prediction for where Tesla stock could be of course remember I told investors not to buy Tesla stock for 2024 I forecasted the EV industry overall would be in significant trouble this year and that's turned out to be right the EV industry overall is struggling Tesla included so let's update this prediction and let me share with you where I formerly thought Tesla stock price would be and I'll update and let you know where I now think it will be month ago in this video when I updated my Tesla stock price prediction I thought the price could be between $150 per share and $250 per share and I told investors that I did not have Tesla stock rated as a buy because of the elevated risks and the poor industry Dynamics Tesla operates in so I'm going to update this prediction obvious viously because the Tesla stock price has already fallen down to $150 per share so I need to update that plus we've had new earnings per share forecast come out from Wall Street analysts who downgraded Tesla's earnings expectations for both this year and next year so like I mentioned Tesla stock price already hitting the bottom end of that Target $150 per share down from around $250 per share to start year now I've kept Tesla stock rated as a hold or not buy even through all this downturn I haven't felt that this is a buying opportunity I felt like the stock price decrease was justified given all of the poor results coming out from the EV industry and Tesla's reported decrease in year-over-year delivery numbers and all of the price cutting that's happening in the industry Rising competition Supply is increasing competitors are cutting prices all of which I want to stay far away from including this recent price dip now I also want to look at Tesla's forward price the earnings ratio right now is trading at a forward PE of 38.7 one I'm going to use this for my price prediction now I highlighted Wall Street analysts have downgraded Tesla's earnings estimates for 2024 they previously thought 90 days ago that Tesla's going to deliver $3.74 in earnings per sh share they decreased that to two $286 before increasing it to $2.99 and then regretting that increase and dropping it again to $22.53 7 days ago and dropping it again to $251 from the previous week similar story for next year where analyst first thought that Tesla would deliver $490 in earnings per share then they dropped it to $389 then they dropped it to $344 before dropping it again in the last week to $341 so Wall Street analysts are tripping over themselves to downgrade Tesla's stock seemingly as quickly as they possibly can while also maintaining that orderly decrease they don't want to suddenly slash those earnings per share estimates because they previously had Tesla stock rated as a Buy and they don't want to change that recommendation so suddenly today Deutsche came out and downgraded its expectation for Tesla stock decreasing it one Notch from its rating so analysts on Wall Street are starting to realize Tesla's prospects are troubled as the industry Dynamics are not working in its favor it remains to be seen how long it'll take for Tesla to De develop or if they'll ever develop driverless cars Elon Musk has teased an announcement coming coming August 8th and investors are hoping shareholders are praying that something good comes out of that announcement and it's not just another show with little substance coming out of Tesla so it remains to be seen what will happen in that announcement now updating that prediction so if Tesla does indeed deliver $341 in earnings per share for 2025 and the forward PE multiple stays where it is at 38.7 for the stock price will continue falling down to $132 per share however I don't think the forward price to earnings ratio is going to stay low even though I think it should I don't think investors should pay this High a price for Tesla stock investors I feel are going to continue piling into Tesla stock and they're going to raise the valuation the forward price the earnings valuation because of some aspect of something that might happen in the future there's strong faith in Tesla stock Tesla stock investors are hesitant to let go of Tesla they think it's going to rise they have strong predictions about what the company can deliver with the robo taxi and Robotics and all of these other capabilities that they have yet to prove investors are willing to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt and so I think the forward PE multiple will rise so so if it rises to 45 then the stock price could end the year at $853 per share if it rises to 60 and the price could end up at $24 per share however if Tesla's prospects continue on the direction that they're going and Tesla doesn't provide any substance on Robo taxi then the stock price might actually start to trade like other tech companies or other car companies remember Tesla stock is not only more expensive than every other car company it's also more expensive than most of the hottest tech companies including Nvidia Apple Microsoft meta platforms let me share that with you here just as an example Microsoft Apple meta platforms let me check all these boxes and you can see when you're measuring with the forward price to earnings ratio Tesla's stock is more expensive than Microsoft at 4 PE of 30 then Nvidia at a forward PE of 27 then Apple at a forward PE of 23 and meta platforms at a forward PE of 21 so Tesla is not just more expensive than car companies it's more expensive than tech companies even if you say Okay Tesla is 100% a tech company which it's not it still generates the vast majority of its Revenue Casal and profit from sales of vehicles so some point in the future that might change and a larger percentage might come from services and Technology that's not the case just yet but even if you give it a 100% Tech valuation and you compare to tech companies it's still more expensive than its large cap Tech peers so any way you split it Tesla stock still expensive even given its Tech nature even if you assign it a tech company valuation still expensive so if the valuation were to come down trade more like other Tech peers and closer to other car companies then the stock price could fall to $19 per share so my base case now my updated forecast for Tesla stock remember I had it between 150 and 250 and the wider than usual range is because of how volatile Tesla stock is I wouldn't feel like it would be prudent to assign a narrower range to a stock that's more more volatile than most companies so to update this prediction from 150 to 250 I'm rating it down lower to between 125 and 165 between 125 and 165 given the current forecasts for earnings per share given the current prospects for Tesla stock and the rest of 2024 being in Tesla's own words a transition year between growth this is the valuation I feel the stock could hit by the end of the year
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