저자: Simple Investing · 외국인
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you shouldn't be trying to guess whether you know one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another you you want to go when you're young someplace that's very inefficient and you shouldn't be trying to guess whether the stock market is going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield i mean you don't have anything to going in that kind of a game matthew monahan from palo alto california mr buffett mr munger first of all i want to thank both of you so for so freely sharing your wisdom and knowledge over the years even though we've never met in person i consider you both to be close personal mentors and attribute your teachings and philosophies to any success i've had in business so far so thank you here's my question for a 23 year old with high ambitions some initial working capital and a genetic wiring as you call it for disciplines like investments mathematics and technology what do you foresee as the significant areas of opportunity over the next 50 even 100 years and if you were in my shoes what would be your approach and methodology for really learning tackling and mastering these areas of opportunity for the purpose of massive value creation well i i remain very and and frankly when you get the chance to talk to somebody like lauren or davidson as i did was when i was 20 years old i probably learned more from lorem or davidson in those four or five hours then i learned in in college with the you know exception of learning some accounting or one or two subjects like that so you just want to soak it up if you have those qualities you talked about you'll see the areas as you go along i mean we have charlie and i probably you know we've made money in a lot of different ways some of which we didn't anticipate you know when we were 30 or 40 years ago but we did have the ability to recognize some we didn't have the ability to recognize others but we did know when we knew what we were doing and when we didn't and we just kept looking we had a curiosity about things you would know at a time like the long-term capital management crisis for example that there were going to be ways to make money i mean it just was they were going to be out there and all you had to do was just read and think uh eight or ten hours a day and you were going to cover a lot of possibilities probably a very high percentage of them good and some of them sensational so you can't really lay it out ahead of time you can't you can't have a you can't have a defined roadmap but you can have a reservoir of thinking looking at different kinds of businesses looking at different kinds of securities looking at markets in different places and you will then spot a reasonable number of things that come along you won't spot every one of them we've missed all kinds of things but the biggest thing too is to have something in the way you're programmed so that you don't ever do anything where you can lose a lot i mean our best ideas have not been better than other people's best ideas but we've never had a lot of things that pulled us way back so we we never went two steps forward and one step back we probably went two steps forward and a fraction of a step back but but it uh avoiding the catastrophes is a very important thing and it will be important in the future i mean you will have your chance to participate in catastrophes charlie yeah and of course the place to look when you're young is in the inefficient markets you shouldn't be trying to guess whether you know one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another you want to go when you're young someplace that's very inefficient and you shouldn't be trying to guess whether the stock market is going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield i mean you don't have anything to going in that kind of a game but you can have a lot going in in in games that very few people are are playing and maybe whether even got their heads screwed on wrong in terms of how they're thinking about the subject the rtc was a great example of a chance to to make a lot of money i mean here was a seller of 10 hundreds of billions of dollars worth of real estate where the people that were selling it had no economic interest in it were eager to wind up the thing you know and they were selling at a terrible time when the people who had been venturesome and lending were no longer lending the people who had been venturesome in in the equity end of real estate had gotten cleaned out so you had a great background of environment and then you had you had an imbalance of intensity in terms of analyzing situations between the seller which was the government with a bunch of people had no economic interest in it were probably eager to wind up the job and buyers on the other side who were of the generally cautious type because the more ventures in time but had taken themselves out of action so and there were huge amounts of property so you get these opportunities and you'll get more i mean there won't be any scarcity of opportunities in in your life although there will be days when you feel that way







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