저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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2021년 하반기 전망: 향후 6개월간 지속될 7가지 테마를 제시하며 대체로 낙관적이나 리스크도 함께 언급함. [시장 상황] 다우 +104p, S&P +0.34%, 나스닥 +0.01%로 신고가 경신. 국채 금리 급락은 경기 둔화 신호로 해석되며 성장주 강세의 배경이지만 일상적 뉴스일 뿐 장기 테마는 아님. [1. ESG 투자] 엔진넘버원이 엑손모빌 이사 3명 선임에 성공(약 1,200만달러). 환경 파괴 기업에 대한 경고로 ESG 전략이 확산될 것으로 봄. [2. 하이브리드 근무] 재택·분산 근무가 정착되며 주택, 자동차 등 수요 붐을 일으켜 인플레이션을 자극. 연준의 파월은 이 수요 급증이 일시적이라 금리 인상 불필요하다고 봄. [3. 중국·대만 리스크] 시진핑이 미국을 지속 시험하고 있으며 대만 압박 가능성이 수십 년 내 최고 수준. 실제 침공 가능성은 낮으나 위험은 커짐. [4. 원유] 반(反)화석연료 행정부로 석유기업들이 시추에 소극적, 수요는 급증. 사우디가 증산하지 않으면 고유가 지속. 퍼미안 분지 관련 종목 상승 기대. 쉐브론, 파이오니어 내추럴 리소스 언급. [5. 과열 IPO] 1999~2000년 닷컴 버블과 유사한 과대평가 IPO 시장 경고. 내부자 매도 물량이 6개월 후 쏟아지면 시장이 험악해질 것으로 봄. [6. 랜섬웨어·사이버보안] 중소기업 대상 랜섬웨어 공격 증가. 크라우드스트라이크, 센티넬원, 옥타, 지스케일러, 팔로알토 네트웍스 등 보안기업 수혜 기대. 테더(USDT)는 준비자산 의문으로 리스크 지적. [7. 밈주식] AMC, 게임스탑 등 레딧 주도 밈주식은 일시적 게임으로 평가. 뉴에그 148% 급등 등 과열. 단기 트레이딩 게임이며 롱·숏 모두에서 수익 기회가 될 수 있다고 봄. [결론] 7개 테마 모두 지속력이 있어 롱·숏 모두로 수익을 낼 수 있다는 전망. 주로 장기 테마 중심의 발언.
다듬은 글
lay america i'll be one of my with the first half of 2021 in the rearview mirror what are the major trends that define the last six months and can they tell us anything about the next six months so we can make some money off them after day where the dow gained 104 points s p advanced 0.34 new record and nasdaq edged up 0.01 another new record i see a lot to like in the second half however i recognize that there's some real negatives here breath is bad treasury seem to be signaling some sort of slowdown with yields falling to ridiculously low levels i mean that's why tech keeps soaring because those are the type of growth stocks that thrive when the economy cools off but those are not major themes they're just the kind of daily reportage that makes you little to no money it's not why you come here we want longer term trends that we can return to time and time again to make money tonight i've got seven of them seven tectonic tonneau shifts tectonic shifts for seven seven which happens to be july seven seven seven seven i thought it was cool all right anyway first uh this is one that doesn't get enough attention that david faber and i talk about constantly we can't believe no one thinks about it that's an outfit called engine number one now you ever heard of them before this they nominated three members for exxon mobil's board of directors they waged a proxy fight against management on the premise that the world's biggest oil company wasn't doing enough to protect the environment and they won the whole battle only cost them 12 million john d must be rolling over in his grave the engine number one win was a major wake-up call to anyone who thinks you can safely ignore environmental social and corporate governance focus investing that's esg for short to me it says if you're destroying the environment we're coming for you be prepared for a challenge if these guys could spend just 12 million dollars to win three board seats at the most storied oil company of all time you better believe their strategy will be repeated especially since it looks like the index funds cited against imagine second theme that's that's built to last the hybrid workplace and one of the most surprising aspects of the pandemic was the ease with which businesses embraced not coming into the central office five days a week what started as an emergency measure has now become commonplace even as the world goes back to normal many people continue to work from home nobody saw this coming don't tell me you did home and retail sales have spiked as people spent their stimulus money setting up home offices in the suburbs while buying entirely new sets of clothes they moved to the country some banks are insisting that people come in to install a sense of teamwork but it looks like the majority of large enterprises have accepted that hybrid work is here to stay they didn't twist their arm very long now that has caused a boom of so many things housing cars it's a major reason why inflation spiked earlier this year fortunately fed chief jay pal obviously understands that the spike in demand caused by the transition to hybrid work is temporary once we're all transitioned so there's no need to raise interest rates because of that by the way where's where's jay working third disturbing the chinese government has taken a hard turn since president biden was elected they're clearly they're clearly going for it in china president xi seems to be testing us almost daily doesn't he most recently with the huge losses he mandated it wasn't about privacy he mandated losses after the ddi ipo mandated i always ask ceos of worldwide companies what's the biggest worry increasingly they're afraid china will make some kind of push for taiwan now this could easily set off world war three because our government's tacitly committed to protecting taiwan's autonomy is that likely probably not but the risk is much higher than at any time in decades i think she will squeeze taiwan until it breaks his way i actually don't know how he's going to do it but i know he's gonna try fourth theme while oil takes a deserved break here i think we're gonna be getting here a lot about hundred dollar crude why because in the first half we got a new anti-fossil fuel white house that caused oil companies to rethink their plans they're much less eager to drill which also happens to be business meanwhile demand is soaring none of this would matter if saudi arabia won't would boost production or at least get an opec agreement but they're enjoying these higher places prices wait look without renewed production both here and abroad the oil producers in the permian basin should see their stock shoot higher crude is about the only commodity that hasn't rolled over i just don't see how it can right now so devin chevron pioneer natural resources those are your three they are investable fifth thing we have way too many overpriced ipos we're in fairy tale land now not like it really is just the dot com period it's 1999 2000 where companies come public at ridiculous high levels because there's a ton of demand and we had no idea how to value them because the the uh venture capitalists keep bidding them up and bidding up and they're not going to let the deal come below where they just paid and that means insiders can just tell the underwriters here's the price i saw this happen at the street.com in 1999 radical overvalue evaluation by the big investors who examined the comps and thought the company's worth a fortune i fought the billion dollar opening hammer in tongs we don't want an overpriced overheated ipo market too many needless deals it's like anything can go public hey why don't we take public by coffee cart guy maxood uh where every day is friday it's right across the street from the exchange no deal's too small it's ridiculous and it always ends badly when this much merchandise is created this rapidly with insider selling coming up six months from now and it will be just a monstrous and notorious pace once the insiders can sell it is gonna get ugly theme number six ransomware attacks have gotten so out of control that we hear about them constantly how about the ones that haven't happened how about the smaller businesses they're targeting i'm not kidding they are targeting small medium-sized businesses i know this we have a bunch of cyber security companies that are very good at stopping threats think crowdstrike hey this new sentinel one octa zscaler palo alto networks most businesses have dramatically understand on cyber security many haven't updated the system in ages it's embarrassing child's play for hackers to break into them especially when they've got state sponsors in russia or china we need to be able to play offense which is the best defense just as deep instinct that's a privately held outfit we had on last week that guarantees you won't get hacked and it's all about playing offense right now we're all waiting for the next big hack the equifax target of our era hasn't happened yet but i think it's just a matter of time especially now that cryptocurrencies allow digital ransoms to be paid with hardly a trace i don't like the criminal aspects of crypto i've railed on that and i worry about the stability of the crypto ecosystem which is under attack from china and has a weak link in the form of tether the third largest cryptocurrency backed by questionable resources we need to see what kind of commercial paper tether owns i don't know a bond guy who has sold them paper in this country do you let me know on twitter call me a tether skeptic finally there are the meme stocks i used to think that it was a decent name for the game these traders are playing back when it was just amc and gamestop at the end of january oh those were huge successes still are and both stocks are now basically controlled by the reddit contingent i think it's fine if these people want to bankroll amc and gamestop by bidding up their stocks allowing the companies to sell shares and incredibly elevated prices so amc's taking a break out but that doesn't make them good investments as we saw when both stocks got obliterated today i marvel at the craziness of what's happening to the stock of say new egg new egg commerce a chinese direct seller of home computer parts among other things which rallied 148 today when 75 million shares on a change in how it can assemble pcs to customers who design them 148 percent memesters the latest meme stocks feel like a game of musical chairs where people trade tens of millions of shares in stocks with very small floats they these are just one day games where the original traders bagged the stocks then dumped the stocks otherwise known as bgl bag them they got them and they liquidate them they're playing bgl i am going to examine all this for foul play i wish this is he would join me bottom line there are seven themes for the seven day seven days of the seventh month i think they'll have staying power which means they can be relied upon to make you money either on the long or short side now that we've entered the second half of 2021
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