저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 2분기 인도량은 약 20만 대 이상, 205~210만 대 가능성이 있으며 하반기 강세가 예상된다. 시장 기대치(whisper number)는 최근 2~3주간 상향되어 현재 약 18만~18.5만 대, 근접 20만 대 수준으로 제시됨. 본인은 20만5천~21만 대 가능성을 봄. 근거로 중국 5~6월 판매 호조와 유럽 강세를 언급. 4월은 중국 안전·PR 이슈로 부진했음. 리스크로 반도체 부족과 공급망 문제를 꼽았으며, 약 1만~1만5천 대가 2분기에서 3분기로 밀릴 수 있다고 봄. 분기 말 인도 집중 현상은 정상적이라고 언급. 연간 인도량은 90만 대 가능성, 강한 경우 내년 130만 대까지 가능하다고 전망. 이 경우 내년 흑자 전환 기대. 중국은 테슬라 인도량의 약 40%를 차지하는 핵심 시장이며 전체 EV 수요의 바로미터로 제시됨. 미국 시장은 뒤처져 있으나 공급망 구축이 진행 중이라고 함. 테슬라 목표가 1,000달러 관련 질문에 대해, 인도량 90만 대가 실현되면 강한 자신감이 생긴다고 답함. 세금 공제 등 일부 노이즈는 있으나 핵심은 인도량이라고 함. 비트코인 보유는 머스크의 입장 번복으로 변동성과 노이즈를 키웠고, 무형자산 상각 가능성 등으로 주가 부담(overhang)이 됐다고 평가. 투자자들은 인도량·EV 수익성·마진에 집중하길 원하며 비트코인은 주의를 분산시키는 요인이라고 봄. 출연자 전망은 장기적으로 테슬라에 긍정적이며, 단기적으로는 공급 이슈와 비트코인 부담이 상존한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
tesla expected to report its highly anticipated delivery numbers any time now joining us to discuss is dan eyes managing director at webbush securities we have uh like in the old days whisper numbers and the whisper numbers now if you had to say is it you've got a you you think minimum you'd like to see 200 but you 200 000 but you think 205 to 210 is possible is that about right then yeah that's exactly i think whisper numbers have moved up significantly over the last two to three weeks i mean whisper numbers are about 180 185 now close to 200k but i think 205 to 210 is possible given what we've seen in china in may and june as well as in europe i think this is it's a pivotal quarter a lot of headwinds in terms of chip shortage pr issues from china but i believe this is the start of what's going to be a very strong second half for tesla a lot of things out of the company's control the supply issues the chip issues uh it's amazing that it's it's back end loaded to that extent because april was was not uh anywhere near the kind of numbers you're expecting in in june so that that's that's typical of of the way things work though yeah but let's just call it is i mean the month of april was a disaster for tesla especially in china you had those pr issues safety you know we've seen some of those things come out coming out of beijing but ultimately may and june i think strong months in china in europe and this is also a supply chain issues where i think 10 to 15k deliveries could get pushed from 2q to 3q and that's why right now you could start to see potentially 900 000 units for the year take a step back given these headwinds you have this sequentially up quarter potentially a two in front of deliveries that's bullish and it speaks to our view the best way to play the green tidal wave is tasso yeah it do you think that we can gauge global ev demand from from this number two and and so it 900 would be a that would be a home run for the company and make you very confident about your uh your thousand dollar target or do other things come into play like margin issues and you know just the the instead of top line maybe bottom line concerns yeah and i think there's a range of things that they need to prove to the street i mean you talk about the tax credits to show the sustainability there i think there's some noise but it all comes down to this story is on deliveries 900 000 this year bold case could they do 1.3 million next year and then they start to get profitable going into the next year and china you know even though despite all the noise that's going to be the winch that's 40 percent of deliveries for tesla and i do believe that's a barometer of what we're seeing globally i think you'll see at x ping neo and others strong delivers come out of china and then u.s which is lagged now you're really seeing a lot more initiatives and the whole supply chain being built to start to catch up with europe and china that's the key right now for musk tesla in the overall ev market oh dan i i'm loathed to ask you any questions that might be construed as negative i i mean i just don't need it uh you know i was in a good mood you know the fud tweets that i'm gonna get for for instilling the fear uncertainty and doubt by asking a simple question but uh are you and i could get it from both ends on this one if i ask you about bitcoin i'll get the bitcoiners will be mad and the teslarians are going to be mad at me is there concern about uh the bitcoin holdings and and what that could do to the the share price is that one of the reasons that the it's not closer to your price target yeah and i think the bears ultimately if you look at this year the reason tesla is underperforming a lot of itself inflicted in terms of some of the safety issues that we saw in china and that's such a big market but you look at bitcoin you know that u-turn that musk took on bitcoin that's just added to the volatility and the noise and you know is there going to be a write down on intangibles three to five cents potentially going back to what was a billion dollar plus paper gain if you go back a quarter that's added to the overhang and i can tell you from talking to investors it's just frustration because investors right now they want to focus on deliveries ev profitability and margins the sideshow that we've seen bitcoin it's been a distraction i think it's an overhang in the stock
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