저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 장기 투자에서 핵심은 고수익 추구보다 큰 손실 회피이며, 상장된 이해 가능한 우량 기업을 적정 가격에 장기 보유하는 것이 최선이라는 주장. 손실 회피의 원칙: 워런 버핏의 '돈을 잃지 말라'를 인용하며, 복리로 10~15% 수익을 장기간 유지하는 것이 핵심이라고 강조. 투자 대상 기준: 비상장 창업기업(레모네이드 가판대 비유)은 피하고, 주식시장에 상장된 기업에 투자하라고 권함. 상장 기업은 검증 절차를 거치고 유동성이 있어 매도가 쉬움. 이해 가능성: 수익 구조를 이해할 수 없는 기업(엔론 사례)은 실적이 좋아 보여도 피해야 함. 가격 기준: 훌륭한 기업이라도 너무 비싸게 사면 좋은 수익률을 얻기 어렵다고 경고. 장기 보유 가능성: 주식시장이 10년간 닫혀도 불만이 없을 정도로 오래 보유할 수 있는 기업이 이상적. 코카콜라, 맥도날드를 예시로 듦. 우량 기업의 조건: 대체하기 어려운 고유 제품/브랜드, 프리미엄 가격을 받는 충성 고객, 낮은 부채, 진입장벽, 금리·환율·원자재 등 외부 변수에 대한 둔감성, 재투자 자본이 적게 들고 현금을 많이 창출하는 구조. 지배구조 주의: 대주주가 소수주주 이익을 보호할 신뢰가 없는 지배기업(통제기업)은 위험하므로 경영진이 주주 이익을 존중하는지 확인해야 함. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없고, 장기 투자 원칙만 제시.
다듬은 글
43 years so a key success factor here is not just shooting for the fences trying to get the highest return it's avoiding significant losses over the over the period okay so as warren buffett says rule number one in investing is never lose money and rule number two is never forget rule number one so if you can avoid losses and earn an attractive return over time you're gonna have a lot of money in many if you can stick at it for a long period of time okay so how do you be a successful investor now i'm assuming that you're not going to go into the business of investing assuming that you're going to be a doctor or lawyer you're going to pursue your passion but you're going to have some money they're going to save over time and i'm going to give you my advice on the topic it's not necessarily definitive advice but it's what the advice i would give my sister my grandmother on what she should do if she were in the same position i think that's probably the right way to think about it so number one how do you avoid losing money what are good places to invest my first piece of advice is despite the story about the lemonade stand i'd avoid investing in lemonade stands i'd avoid investing in startup businesses um where the prospects are not very well known because again you don't need to make 100 a year to have a fortune you just need to invest at an attractive return 10 15 over a long period of time your money grows very significantly so how do you avoid the riskiest investments i would my advice would be to invest in public security invest in listed companies companies that trade on the stock market why because those businesses are tend to be more established they have to meet certain hurdles before they go public the stocks are liquid so you can change your mind if you want to sell if you invest in a private lemonade stand it's hard to find someone to take you out of that investment unless that business becomes fabulously profitable so that's a piece of advice number one invest in public companies number two you want to invest in businesses that you can understand what i mean by that is there are lots of businesses that you come in that you deal with in the course of your day and your personal life whether it's a retail store that you know because you like shopping there or it's a product uh your your ipad or that you know you think is a great product but you unders you have to understand how the company makes money the business is just too complicated you don't understand how they make money even if they've had a great track record i would avoid it a lot of people thought enron was an incredible business because it appeared to have a good track record but very few people understood how they made money it was good to avoid it another very important criteria is you want to invest at a reasonable price it could be a fabulous business that's done very well over a long period of time but if you pay too much for it you're not going to earn a very good return the last bit is that you want to invest in a business that you could theoretically own forever the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn't be unhappy what do i mean by that now again if you're going to compound your money at a 10 or 15 return over a 43 year period of time you really want a business that you can own forever you don't want to constantly have to be shifting from one business to the next and what are what are businesses that you can own forever well the very few that sort of meet that standard uh maybe a good example is coca-cola right what's good about coca-cola is it's relatively easy business to understand you understand how coke makes money right they sell a formula uh syrup to bottlers and to retail establishments and they make a profit every time they serve a coca-cola people are going to drunk a lot of coca-cola for a very long period of time the world's population is growing they sell in almost every country in the world and each year people drink a little bit more coca-cola so it's a pretty easy business to understand it's also a business that i think is unlikely to be competed away as a result of technology or some other new product right it's been around long enough people have grown used to the taste you know they make parents give it to their children and you can expect that it'll be around a long period of time i think that's one good example another good example might be mcdonald's you may not love mcdonald's hamburgers but it's a business that has been around for 50 years you understand how they make money they open up these little build these little boxes they rent them to the franchisees they charge them royalties in exchange for the name and they sell hamburgers and french fries and you know what people have to eat it's relatively low-cost food the quality is pretty good and they're they continue to grow every year so i think the consistent message here is try to find a business that you can understand uh that's not particularly complicated that has a successful long-term track record that makes a an attractive profit uh and can grow over time so what are the key things to look for in a business as i say that lasts forever we want a business that sells a product or a service that people need and that is somewhat unique and they they have a loyalty to this particular brand or or or product and that people are willing to pay a premium for that i mean a good another good example might be a candy business while people are willing to buy generic versions of many kind of food products flour or sugar they don't need to have the branded product when it comes to candy people don't tend to like the walmart version or the kmart version they want the you know the hershey chocolate bar or the cadbury chocolate bar or the seas candy they want the the brand and they're willing to pay a premium for that and um so that's i think a key thing you want the product to be unique you don't want it to be a commodity that everyone else can sell because when you sell a commodity anyone can sell it and they can sell it at a at a better price and it's very hard to make a profit doing that if you're investing for the long term you want to invest in businesses that have very little debt in our little example before we talked about our lemonade stand you know this 250 worth of debt that didn't put too much pressure on the lemonade stand company but if it had been a thousand dollars we hit a rough patch the business could have got out of business for failure to pay its debts the shareholders could have been wiped out so if you can find a company that can earn attractive profits it doesn't have a lot of debt they generate vastly more profits than they need to pay the interest on their debt that's a safe place to put your money over a long period of time you want businesses that have what people call barriers to entry you want a business where it's hard for someone tomorrow to set up a new company to compete with you and put you out of business i mean like going back to the coca-cola example coca-cola has such a strong market presence you know people have come to expect when they go to a restaurant they can ask for a coke and get a coke it's very hard for someone else to break in and of course there's pepsi and there are other soda brands but pepsi's been around a long time coca-cola and pepsi have continued to exist side by side over long periods of time so when you're thinking about choosing a company make sure that they sell a product or a service that's it's hard for someone else to make a better one that you'll switch to tomorrow you also want businesses that are not particularly sensitive to outside factors so-called extrinsic factors that you can't control so if a business will be affected dramatically if the price of a particular commodity goes up or if interest rates move up and down or if currency prices change you want a company that's fairly immune to what's going on in the world and i'll use my coca-cola example i mean if you think about coca-cola it's a product that's been around probably 120 years over that period of time there have been multiple world wars development of nuclear weapons all kinds of unfortunate events and tragedies and so on and so forth but each year the company pretty much makes a little bit more money than they made before and they're going to be around and you can be confident based on the history that this is a business that's going to be around almost regardless of whether interest rates are at 14 whether the us dollar is uh you know not worth very much or the price of gold is up or down those are the kind of companies you want to invest in the long term businesses that are extremely immune to the events that are going on in the world another criteria if you think back to our lemonade stand company as we grew we had to buy more and more lemonade stands those lemonade stands only cost 300 each but imagine a business where every time you grew you had to build a new factory to produce more and more product and those factories were really expensive well that company might generate a lot of cash from the business but in order to grow you're gonna have to just reinvest more and more cash into the business the best businesses are the ones where it doesn't they don't require a lot of capital to be reinvested in the company they generate lots of cash that you can use to pay dividends to your shareholders or you can invest in new high return attractive projects i guess the last point i would make is that you invest in public companies it's probably safest to invest in businesses that are not controlled controlled companies kind of like our lemonade stand business that we took public the problem with a controlled company unless the controlling shareholder is someone you completely trust unless there's someone that has a great track record for taking care of so-called minority investors the non-controlling shareholders it can be a risk proposition to invest in that business because you're at the whim of the controlling shareholder and even if the controlling shareholder today is someone that you feel comfortable with there's no assurance that in the future they might sell control to someone else is not going to be as supportive of the shareholders of the business so it's not that you just you can simply have a profitable business and a business that has done well you have to make sure that the management and the people that control the business think about you as an owner and are going to protect your interests so these are some of the key criteria
Comments 0