Peter Lynch - The Stock Market Is Going Higher!

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. i stopped running magellan so you make more money on the upside the market's been a lot higher 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste i don't know what's gonna do it can go down when i ran with john 13 years declined so peter your investing philosophy is often summed up as by what you know and there's some truth to that and it's also often way oversimplified can you explain what you did mean by that and what you didn't mean well i think it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet if you if you get added eight get fairly close to 16 you find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble you should know it so a little bit of research people carefully buy a refrigerator can they take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand dollars some stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous so when you say buy what you know you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside advantage by sticking to an industry he's a familiar with or seeing something that she realizes is a great product i'm imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you would have seen gap when it was hot you were saying aluminum was hot we've seen what was not had we've seen when they were starting people weren't excited about gaap anymore or then you do some research say well gee there's a lot of limited stores but we're only at 20 you know they can go to 400.

02. so you you see a company i did really well dunkin donuts a local company i do well with stop and shop but people could see that this is really some people showing up or guess the sunglasses hut no one's there anymore so i mean that's research that's fundamentals so you don't leave the mall though and by that day you have to do some more work that's the important point so today there's so much information everywhere information overload does that make it harder for active investors the indexers say everyone's got access to the same information at the same time you can't beat the market well the way you beat the index is you you avoid the stocks to go down you avoid the steel companies and the oil companies and sears and penny and where the companies are deteriorated i mean companies are dynamic behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so you're trying to find the companies within the s p 500 that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crabby to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time you're trying to avoid the companies that are going south that's how you beat them or you find some companies outside the sp400 that are that are great companies carmax was not in the s p 500 they went up 200 fold so a lot of times they enter and a lot of their great performances before they go in now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up they then they take their profits and you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and you even got a call from warren buffett as a result in 1989 i'm at home the phone rings and that was one of my friends but one of my daughters he was six-year-old and he picked up and said she just there's a mr buffett online i said this could be a joke i pick it up and this this warren buffett from omaha nebraska you know i read your book but my own reports doing two weeks i use a line he said that all about seven seconds and i said that's great i'd love to do it what what's the line he said i love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your great companies and add to the losers it's like watering the weeds and cutting the flowers he said i want to put it in he said if you ever come to nebraska you don't call me you will be mud all over nebraska so did he call him oh yeah i've said several times we play bridge together we've had several meetings great guy another point you've made and this is i think particularly relevant 10 years into a bull market is that i think you said more money has been lost anticipating a downturn than actually in the downturn can you explain well obviously the market's market's gone up tenfold since i stopped running magellan so you make more money on the upside the market's been a lot higher than 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste i don't know what's going to do it can go down when i ran magellan 13 years declined 10 or more nine times the market wow i had a perfect record i went down more than 10 every time where the market went down and went down more but over the long term the upside is more than the downside so you're going to say something i need the money in the next month do i need money next year do i have kids going to college they have a wedding coming up then you're a bad investor if you if you can keep putting money in you have 5 10 15 20 25 year you should