저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 피터 린치는 주식 투자 원칙은 50년 전이나 지금이나 같으며, 장기적으로 주식이 채권·현금보다 낫다고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 투자 대상은 반드시 이유를 이해해야 하며, 11살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없으면 투자하지 말아야 한다. '주가가 오를 것 같아서'는 좋은 이유가 아니다. 수익 구조 근거: 머니마켓펀드는 세후 약 4~5%대, 10년물 국채는 4.7% 수준이며, 향후 10년간 주식은 이보다 훨씬 나을 것으로 본다. 기업 이익은 시간이 지나며 성장하고 주가는 그 결과로 오르며, 기업 이익은 2차대전 이후 약 40배 증가했고 주가지수도 약 40배 올랐다고 언급했다. 자산 배분: 주식 비중은 개인 결정이며, 나이별 주식 비중 공식(25세 100%, 45세 50%, 60세 0% 등)은 어리석다고 비판했다. 개인에 따라 10%가 공격적일 수도, 50%가 적정할 수도 있다고 했다. 기업 분석: 재무상태표를 확인해 현금과 부채를 비교해야 하며, 현금 1억 달러 무부채 기업과 현금 없이 부채 1억 달러인 기업은 완전히 다르다고 강조했다. 매도 원칙: 매수 이유를 기준으로 매도해야 하며, 경기순환주는 실적이 좋아질 때 팔고, 성장주는 장기 성장 스토리가 유효한 동안 보유하라고 했다. 토이저러스와 홈디포를 너무 일찍 판 것을 최대 실수로 꼽았다. 분산 및 매매 원칙: 투자 기간(단기 자금 여부)에 맞춰 포트폴리오를 짜고, 한 분야만 몰빵하면 위험하다고 봤다. 리밸런싱으로 부진한 분야에 추가 매수하는 전략을 제시했다. 경기 전망: 과거 경기 예측은 의미 없으며, 당시 주택·자동차·소비는 양호하고 경기침체는 일반적인 수준이라고 평가했다. 미국 경제에 대한 베팅은 하지 않겠다고 했다. 기술주: 1000개 기술기업 중 일부는 현금 가까이 거래되고 업계 선두인데 주가가 95% 하락한 곳이 있어 조사 중이라고 언급했다(구체 종목 미언급). 시장 전망: 현재 약세장은 1990년 걸프전 약세장, 1981~82년 약세장, 1973~74년 니프티피프티·기술주 폭락과 유사하다고 봤다. 일본식 장기 불황과는 다르다고 평가했다. 장기 낙관 입장. 조언: 과거 불황 9번을 모두 극복해왔으므로 미국 경제 시스템을 믿으라고 하며, 장기 투자자의 인내와 끈기를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
or you can have some equities and i think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so i would have some of my money now it's up to the person to decide how much do they wanna have in the stock market for some people ten percent is aggressive for some people fifty percent is the right amount it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100 and if you're 45 you should be 50 if you're 60 you should be zero and it's burping a lot i know what the rules are people at 60 but they i hate those rules i think they're pathetic now let's go over and meet tonight's special guest peter lynch peter welcome hello great happy to have you in my new environment fantastic peter lynch is an authentic hall of fame investor under his management from may 1977 to may 1990 the fidelity magellan fund was the best performing mutual fund in the world since then he has stayed active as a writer teacher and philanthropist while also serving as vice chairman of fidelity management and research peter many viewers want to know whether this market is totally different whether your old view that people should find buy and hold good stocks is no longer applicable what do you think i think the same rules applied 50 years ago applied five years ago apply 20 years from now you first of all you have to know what you own whether it's a fund or a stock you have to have a reason for it and you ought to be able to explain to an 11 year old and two minutes or less why own this and this sucker's going up is not a good reason i've tried that one it's not doesn't work speak to the question of trust which marty just expressed considerable concern about it i did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time i think this is really terrible this week what you mentioned about worldcom and anderson i mean these are real problems but you just have to have faith i mean we've had this before i think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses i think you know people will be punished for it i think there'll be surveillance i think board of directors is going to be more careful inc this is what's happened after you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's sad it's a you can't legislate integrity what would you say to investors now who say peter everything i own has gone down uh it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at a bottom right uh should i get out and go into cds or gold bars and an opium or whatever right well basically you look now you have three choices i think if you're investor you can put your money in a money market fund and get one seven one five one six and it's taxed at a forty percent can buy a 10-year treasury and get four seven that's taxed at a 40 rate or you can have some equities and i think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so i would have some of my money now it's up to the person decide how much they wanna have in the stock market for some people 10 percent is aggressive for some people 50 is the right of mine it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100 and if you're 45 you should be 50 if you're 60 you should be zero and it's burping a lot i know what the rules are people at 60 but they i hate those rules i think they're pathetic why are you confident that stocks will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets i mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and i think companies are going to make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason some companies don't do well zero hawks make a lot less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less but a lot of more companies are earning a lot more money than they were and that's why stocks go up corporate profits gone up 40 fold since world war ii stock market's up 40-fold it's 25 years since you started running magellan you have been director of research for fidelity you've been with them since i guess 69 what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make well i think not looking at the balance sheet this mistake i've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets they own their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they have and take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that with a company i've seen i've seen investors look at companies that made let's say you're looking at two companies they're very depressed they're each at four dollars a share but one companies and they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company that's 100 million in cash and no debt and one company has no cash and 100 million of debt they're about to blow taps on the second company so you and you could do this you if you get through eighth grade math you get anywhere near eight and eight equals sixteen you can do this look at a company's financial position it's impossible to go bankrupt you don't have any debt i mean you get the irving g thulberg lifetime achievement where i think they're bad mantra i mean how did you do that when you were actively managing money you presumably were under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well i think my greatest mistakes are you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose 100 i've done that but your great mistakes are selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold they call them the 10 baggers some of my mistakes just saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold after i sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better and they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a growth company you have to say walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still were only in 15 the united states and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23.
so for the next four decades going around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story a 20-year story i'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue yes we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in america have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy a company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you would have made a lot of money in johnson johnson you want to make a lot of money gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand i sometimes get angry mail particularly during bear markets saying so-and-so recommended such-and-such and it went down well uh how often did you come up with a clicker well this this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose 20 or 30 percent so when you buy a psyche i say yourself how much can i lose and how much can i make and you ought to be able to make a lot you see stocks are risky i mean look look at how much we lost on a t lookout for less than xerox these were quality companies you know you could lose a lot in the stock so i say yourself how much can i make because i want to buy a stock if i'm right i'm going to make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day i think the market's going to go up you know i keep calling a lot of my company so i keep calling the company you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing them as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view on the economy now well i i look at the economy i look historically economy i don't look at the future i mean that's weather forecasting i look i look at the economy backwards see what's happening and economy looks very good to me right now the housing market looks terrific i mean the auto market looks good the consumer looks good it's a lot of good elements to it and if this is we've had nine recessions since world war ii and if average usually about a two percent decline in the workforce you know it's terrible there's about a million half people have lost their jobs in this decline but that would only be about a one percent decline in the workforce so so far this has been a mild recession has been mild and technology has been mild and telecom has been mild for you know if the company's making fiber optics but it's been it's been a normal recession and i would never bet against the american economy it's powerful you were never a big fan of the technology group are you now i've actually started looking i'm a little early on these things i started looking at in january and february and i've been researching the companies and they're very complex because they're they're if there's a thousand technology companies they're all a little bit different they're not like a bunch of banks they're very similar so you have to be careful i'm looking companies they're selling close to cash they're an industry leader and they're down 95 percent all our panelists are a little different too let's turn it over to them starting with money swag let's talk about a little different market first we had a bubble here in nasdaq it collapsed it went down about as much as the japanese market did the economy is iffy some people are comparing our situation now to japan god forbid 10 years ago what do you think well i think that's a very interesting correlation i mean the japanese market economy has been incredibly weak they've had a 12-year recession but there you had a real problem with the banking system you basically had let's say average building a commercial building went from 50 million to 500 million a bank then made 110 loan against it a 550 million loan then the building went back to 50 and they're stuck with a 450 million loan and the government never cut taxes it actually raised taxes i mean they did everything wrong and the companies didn't cut costs so they just sort of sat there hope things would get better we our companies act fast they start cutting costs real quickly and and our government is fortunately this is rare in our history we went into this recession running a surplus first time ever the system's supposed to be in our country we should run surpluses in the good times and then the bad times we run deficits well guess what it's working right they didn't have that in japan and japan now it's wasted 12 years i don't think it has all i don't just look to me at all like japan we're we're near we're starting to get better already pierre lou asked you a question about sort of the typical investor mistakes and when you started in the business i know the average investor held mutual funds for you know 16 17 years and now it's down to less than two years right do you think that's one of the problems if timerize has gotten too short well i think also what they might have to say what do i want do i need the money in a year do you need the money five years you're a terrible investor you need the money in the year if you need for college to send your kids there for a wedding you're not gonna be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should i have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do i want i want two or three girl funds what's my mix that i like and you want to decide it is aggressive you know some people aggressive is 50 so i would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu in a restaurant they should look it over and decide what they like and then stay with it and if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they add to maybe they should add to the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same so you get whipsawed if you're all in one area does bully for three years you say get me out of that you go into some other area and that does badly for three years you could be in it forever and never make money peter does this market remind you of any that you've been through before i would say 90 the 90 bear market is very similar in many ways i mean we just think saddam hussein takes over kuwait and we send 500 000 troops to saudi arabia all the people are saying it's going to be iraq's the third largest army in the world to be another vietnam we had a recession we had all these banks in trouble right now our banks are in terrific shape which are major positive so that was a very scary environment and we had defaults i mean it was an ugly environment everybody was afraid so i think that was a very similar market and i think 81 82 was ugly too we had you know twenty percent prime rate double digit and inflation double general unemployment so those are scary markets and then top it all off the 7374 market as you remember the nifty 50 we had that we had it in technology stocks so we had 95 declines and you know we've we've combined three markets into one special case spent very fast we have less than a minute left those those who were who are less sanguine about the economy than you've just expressed often cite the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from surplus to deficit as negatives you seem to indicate that they're positives why well i think i think the government running deficit is terrific that's why it should work i mean when they were running a 200 billion dollar surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running 100 billion deficit it's pumping 100 billion in it's a cushion so you don't see a double dip recession coming i don't know i i can't break the future that's a healthy thing to have buffers in the economy we've had nine recessions world war two we've got out every one of them the system works if you could give one sentence of advice to scared investors right now what would it be i think you ought to see some kids you know hire an eight-year-old harvest six-year-old just watch them they don't know who alan greenspan is they know about the shape of the yield curve they're optimistic about the future we'll be fine for the next 30 40 years let's hope you're right peter courage and persistence have worked in the past there we do have to stop with thanks to peter lynch and our panelists next week we'll look into what's really ahead for the us economy with the renowned financial wizard who his peers consider the guy most likely to know ed hyman who for an incredible 22 years running has been voted the single best economist in wall street when he talks big money listens meanwhile this has been louis rookies wall street good night
Comments 0