저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표(8/23 장후)를 앞둔 프리뷰. 최근 주가 급등으로 PE·선행 PSR 등 밸류에이션 추정치가 분석기관마다 크게 엇갈림. 중국 수출 규제 전 AI칩 사재기 수요가 2023~2024년 매출을 떠받치지만 이후 수요 절벽 리스크 존재. 애널리스트 목표가 상향 추세(HSBC 780, Key Bank 620). 실적 결과에 따라 시장 방향이 좌우될 것으로 보며, 진입은 실적 이후를 권고하는 신중한 톤. 자신은 장기 강세 견해를 밝힘.
다듬은 글
what's up fartable another big week and there's really two primary things to be watching this week Venture Jerome Powell is going to give commentary at Jackson Hole on August 25th and that's Friday and then of course we have Nvidia earnings that's going to be on this Wednesday after market close in this video today let's look at Nvidia Let's do an Nvidia earnings preview see where the Stock's at look at valuation possibilities for the stocks and predictions for the stock also look at a chart and show you some different price levels where it could go I think most people would agree that nvidia's earnings really will predict what happens next with the market a lot of the gains in 2023 year to date it really comes down to that AI hype train now some of this is definitely legitimate and the question is is where are these stocks valued at like what is NVIDIA evalued at so Nvidia in these big cap tech stocks these Mega cap tech stocks acts have really driven the market higher off the AI buzz and if Nvidia comes in light if there's any sort of sneeze at all you could see a market sell-off and you could see that that sell-off really accelerate and snowball so investors and analysts I think most people agree that Nvidia is probably going to have a solid earnings report we're expecting a beat on both and a raising Guidance the question is how much Nvidia shares have tripled in 2023 adding more than 700 billion dollars in market cap to make it the first trillion dollar chip stock now I think where that gets interesting is you look at an infographic like this now this is showing you total addressable market for chips 940 billion dollars in 2030 but this does not include software and if you've been paying attention to the channel Nvidia is really pivoting more into AI as a service really as a software as a service type model and of course the software is not going to be represented on this total addressable Market I've been investing in tech stocks since the late 1990s and I don't recall a time in 25 years of investing we're the entire direction of the market really depends on one earnings report if Nvidia misses at all it's going to cause shock waves through the market if you think about it AI is really the last pillar of growth that people are Clinging On to and if we lose that hope it could be bad news for the stock market now this is another thing I don't recall in 25 years of investing just how the analysts are all over the board right now I was looking at 15 different sites and getting 15 different pieces of information these numbers are all across the board it doesn't seem to be one consistent number on anything that I read this particular quote Wall Street expects the chip company to guide for a rise of about 110 percent in the third quarter Revenue to 12.5 billion dollars nvidia's only forecast Revenue below estimates once in the past two years you can see City analysts said that this week they're modeling Revenue forecasts around 12 billion dollars but the buy side expectations have gone up to 14 billion in at least 10 different firms analysts have raised price targets just in the last week the new median is 500 as a share which is about 15.5 percent higher than the close on Friday so you're seeing the stock green today now this is where it gets really sketchy because people look at p ratio well that's going to be 12 months trailing so we look at Ford PE but a Ford p e is is really trying to estimate what that guidance and revenue expectations are going to be and those numbers are all across the board so while the company's 12-month forward price earnings ratio soared dramatically to more than 80 in its second quarter Revenue forecasts at over 50 percent growth in May it has come down since analysts have raised their earnings expectations it now trades nearly 40 times the consensus earnings for the next 12 months and that's higher of course than amd's 29 but Nvidia has been crushing it on earnings amd's last earnings report wasn't all that great so of course all eyes are going to be on these AI chips the data center unit h100 chips and here's another clip from Forbes and this is what I'm saying the numbers are all over the place the current share price in trailing 12 months of earnings equate to a p ratio of 222 and that's well above company's five-year average which is 73 but probably for good reason the question is is where do you value the thing investors are pricing in much stronger earnings going forward but even the 4p ratio is more than 30 percent higher than nvidia's five-year average well maybe it should be 30 percent higher based on this huge secular Tailwind this this secular growth Trend that we're seeing so this is where it gets interesting and really the drama starts the p e ratio 236 so that's 12 months trailing now the 4p ratio based on why charts is 55.5 but earlier on the slide we saw 40 and I've seen projections anywhere from 60 to 25 for the 4pe of course the 4p is an estimate and the estimates are all over the place so just for fun I added the forward price to sales ratio according to Y charts here 25.5 you can see where this is polarizing because you can look at it and say well according to my estimates it's only a 34p ratio so if you're buying those long-term investment it's a good long-term investment or you could easily say well this is a 238p ratio and you've got risk with China and that drop off we talked about and the price of sales ratio even on a forward price of sales ratio is 25 which is ridiculous and so the drama continues and what decides what happens next for NVIDIA and probably the fate of the market earnings Wednesday night this is just this morning HSBC adjust price Target to 780 dollars per share from 600 and maintains a buy rating now you can see down here the price ranges are from 211.67 all the way to a street high of a thousand dollars per share and remember this is trading at 450 bucks right now and it's over a trillion dollar market cap so in a thousand dollars a share you're talking well over a two trillion dollar market cap so this HSBC analyst is Frank Lee who notes that despite higher expectations there's still earnings upside that's not fully priced in yet for the second half of fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 but definitely keep watching this video because we're going to talk a little bit more about that and some of the risks Key Bank analyst raises price Target to 620 dollars after previously boosting it in July they just keep popping this price these price targets higher and higher noting that the unmatched company is likely to Surge past estimates there's not a lot of stocks I can recall covered in the last 25 years that really have the buzz around what nvidia's got right now so web Bush Securities Dan Ives who called CEO Jensen Wong The Godfather of AI said the results are highly anticipated especially given the fact that tech stocks have been shaky after 2q results so check this out stock at 457 of 5.62 percent right now 42 analysts are covering this stock and it has a high of a thousand dollars low here of 392 dollars so you're talking about the low being 13 lower than now the high being 120 percent upside you don't see stuff like this very often especially with trillion dollar market caps so you've got 36 buy ratings seven outperforms six hold and one underperformed now of course you never buy a stock solely off analyst recommendation but I think it's interesting just to look at the data and try to get an idea of sentiment now according to this Source we got earnings per share two dollars and six cents and sales 11.1 billion so again these numbers do vary depending on the site so going back to Dan Ives this is a quote we expect a bullish Outlook from Nvidia that should be the fuel in the engine to continue this Tech rally into the rest of the year and this is despite the tough talking fed with Jackson Hole Powell coming this Friday that's a bold statement you know we'll see what happens there's certainly a lot of macroeconomic risks right now we've talked about some of the channel you know credit cards you're talking about treasury yields interest rates inflation we won't go down that rabbit hole right now but there are a lot of risks in the market and if you look at stocks and where they're valued I mean you could easily make a bear case or a bull case in this spot we're at a 50 50 ball and I think Nvidia decides what happens next okay so analysts expect Nvidia to report sizable growth in revenue and EPS the consensus estimate for revenue is 11.1 billion up from 6.7 billion in the year go quarter that's a big jump that translates into a 65 percent year-over-year sales growth and you're talking about a large company this is a big number now later we're going to look a little bit closer at valuation and specifically a chart and I'm going to show you what could happen the consensus assessment for revenue is within the company's second quarter Outlook reported in May at that time the company expected second quarter revenues between 10.78 and 11.22 billion the consensus EPS for the second quarter is two dollars and seven cents which would be a 305 increase over the second quarter 2023 EPS of 51 cents so what are some risks and this is important to pay attention to here and I honestly think that this is being missed by a lot of analysts it's hard to measure it it's really hard to measure this and try to figure out what numbers we should be using and what the valuation should be so Biden orders a ban on certain U.S tech investments in China we know this right so this is to stop Chinese entities in three primary sectors semiconductors Quantum and AI so what we we've seen is we've seen these Chinese internet Giants basically order a bunch of chips in fears that they won't be able to order them in the future so they're stockpiling now if you remember in 2022 we had similar issues where we had supply chain constraints and businesses started to stockpile and that impacted companies like AMD and Nvidia on their earnings results so 5 billion dollars worth of AI chips that's a big number and there's going to be some pull through there so you've got companies like Alibaba Baidu bite dance which is Tick Tock 10 cent They have made orders worth one billion dollars about a hundred thousand a 800 processors so this is not the most recent technology they're ordering the older technology really in fears that we're going to continue to press this legislation and make these not available as well the companies also bought an additional four billion dollars of the graphics processing units to be delivered in 2024.
so you're gonna have some pull through in 2023 as well as 2024. but what does it look like on the other other side the other question that we don't have a solid answer to taiwan's semiconductor has to manufacture these you know Nvidia is a fabulous Semiconductor Company they're going to send these designs off to that Foundry Taiwan semiconductor and can Taiwan semiconductor keep up with the demand so Chinese companies are rushing to stockpile the a800 chips over fears that the US is bowling new export restrictions which would include even nvidia's weekend ships meaning they're older models so bite dance owner of tick tock has stockpiled at least 10 000 Nvidia gpus to further its Ambitions the company has also ordered about 70 000 of these a800 chips this is worth 700 million dollars to be delivered next year and this is going to be for generative AI features on Tick Tock their app so the question is what does this look like longer term at some point that demand is going to fall off and so you're gonna have pull through and you're gonna have stockpiling and then at some point it's going to taper off and fall off a cliff so the big question here what happens next you obviously have some pull through here and at some point that demand is going to probably fall off a cliff even if there aren't additional restrictions on those a800 chips they're already stockpiled 5 billion dollars worth and so they're not going to have much demand they're not going to have as much need after that 2024 delivery this could create a problem and you can make an argument that well Nvidia is not going to have a problem with demand from other businesses in other countries but it could also make the bear case that this will be an issue at some point you're going to have basically really hard comps so what happens is the stock price will probably keep going higher it's going to plot so at some point probably pull back the question is where and then it's going to train a range and it can train a range for a couple of years sometimes when you see stock moves like this so stay tuned we're going to look at a couple more things here and then a chart before I go on so the analyst consensus estimates for NVIDIA and you see numbers in different places but this is the one I've I saw the most here this morning when I prepped two dollars and nine cents per share on 11.07 billion in Revenue then the question is what's the guidance and if it is going to report Wednesday August 23rd after market close we're going to look at a chart here so stay tuned but drop me a comment below what happens next the short interest is only 1.11 and that of course my friends is telling you that not a lot of people have the cajones to step in front of this train now here price the book 43.67 of course these are trailing metrics PEG ratio 10.64 you know it's a 1.1 trillion dollar market cap price this sales this is not Ford but just the price of sales ratio 41.39 now according to Fidelity the PE for this year's estimate 52.8 the PE for next year's estimate 36.2 so next we're going to look at a chart when you see these charts we do chart day and Patron Discord every single Wednesday at nine o'clock AM Eastern live if you see orange text information or today's chart day and I've got some text written up here for you in yellow now I've been long on Nvidia since 2018 in the 30s and it's been my highest conviction stock for years and I've been talking about AI in this channel for years when this stock got to 150 dollars I was like 150 dollars you know this is a buy when it got down here 125 or less I was pounding the table and people were saying it could go to 80 I'm like I don't care 125 or less pound the table this stock got all the way down here to a hundred and eight dollars and 13 cents now this was in October of 2022 and you know what happened since then and this is about as parabolic as you're gonna get you know adding 700 billion dollars in market cap and flying all the way up here from 108 dollars up to 480 bucks a share so you got this Fibonacci retracement you've got these pivot Points moving averages this is the 50-day simple moving average the 100-day red purple is going to be the 200 day so this purple this 200-day simple moving average is all the way down here below 280 dollars a share so if earnings are good and the stock grips higher your R3 is at 521 dollars and it could certainly go higher than that you could see it probably 550 bucks something like that if there's a miss the market sells off if Nvidia misses and can crashes hard after earnings some of the numbers still looking on the downside 378 369 and 345.
you can see it held support of about 401 402 dollars here recently this 100 day simple moving average is going to be that 369 dollar level and then 345 is going to be this previous S3 so this is crazy you've got the 200-day simple moving average at 279 dollars and you've got the R3 up here at 521 that's a massive range this video is not here to tell you like buy the stock don't buy the stock I think you have to wait for earnings and see what happens hopefully you already own the stock and you bought it at 150 or even less if you missed that run up you know you have to be careful here at the same time all these analysts are telling you it's going to be 700 800 a thousand dollars a share so as long as the momentum is positive as long as they beat and they race as long as they don't completely whiff expectations the market wants to take this stock higher it doesn't necessarily mean that you should go buy it before earnings because it's a big risk bottom line I'm bullish on Nvidia but this is a very interesting spot here and you certainly have to use caution do what's best for your money and conviction but this is really to bring you just some possibilities some some analysis before earnings and earnings preview I hope this was helpful make sure you
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